Pandemic News/Awareness - Thread 2

Current outbreak of H5N1 in Germany, July 2007

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07010701/H5N1_WB_Germany_Tyva.html

Almost exactly one year ago, there were massive wild bird die offs in Tyva and Mongolia,on a par with the outbreak at Qinghai Lake in May, 2005. Although western Europe denied H5N1 infections this year, prior to the recent outbreaks, the similarity with the 2006 Tyva / Mongolia isolates suggest birds that survived the outbreak brought the H5N1 to western Europe, where H5N1 circulated for a year, undetected.

Increased surveillance is clearly indicated for all countries in Western Europe.

UNICEF Promotes Bird Flu Education in Bangladesh:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/07/unicef-promotes-bird-flu-education-in.html

Experts fear if there is another outbreak of bird flu in a tropical country like Bangladesh, it would spell a disaster for the public as well for the poultry sector, where the investment is at least Tk 12000 crore, he added.

Stressing on changing the health habits of people, Shamsuddin insisted on keeping the children far from the fowls since a study showed that of the 191 death cases, 40 percent were children.

More on that study about H5N1 and dogs, commentary from Effect Measure

with permission of the editors:

The Editors of Effect Measure are senior public health scientists and practitioners. Paul Revere was a member of the first local Board of Health in the United States (Boston, 1799). The Editors sign their posts "Revere" to recognize the public service of a professional forerunner better known for other things.

Dogs and H5N1

Category: Bird flu * Pandemic preparedness

Posted on: July 3, 2007 6:55 AM, by revere

Influenza is primarily a disease of birds but other animals, including mammals, can be infected. Humans are mammals, of course, and we know humans get flu. But there are 144 different subtypes of influenza A and mostly they infect birds. When H5N1 jumped from birds to humans in Hong Kong in 1997 it was a surprise. It was thought the bird viruses needed to acquire human specificity by mixing bird and human viruses in a suitable animal (usually thought to be the pig). Pigs are very lucky. They can be infected by both human and bird viruses. That seemed to be what happened in the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, anyway. The bird flus weren't supposed to infect humans directly. Or so the story went.

As of 1997 we know it isn't true. The 1918 virus may well have been another example of a direct jump from birds to humans, although there is still some uncertainty about where it came from. This might suggest that viruses making the direct jump are particularly dangerous, but we now that H7N2, H7N7 and H9N2, all bird viruses, can also infect humans but the disease is very mild, much milder than the usual seasonal flu we are accustomed to each winter. So there is much we don't know.

One of the many things we don't know is what other animals can get infected by viruses we thought were confined to birds. Just considering the H5N1 subtype, we have seen reports of various felines (large cats and also our smaller domestic variety), dogs and ferrets and mice in the laboratory. A new paper just appeared giving some more information on dogs and H5N1:

Inoculation of influenza (H5N1) into beagles resulted in virus excretion and rapid seroconversion with no disease. Binding studies that used labeled influenza (H5N1) showed virus attachment to higher and lower respiratory tract tissues. Thus, dogs that are subclinically infected with influenza (H5N1) may contribute to virus spread. (Maas R et al., Avian influenza (H5N1) susceptibility and receptors in dogs. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007 Aug)

The authors inoculated dogs in the laboratory with a high path H5N1 isolated from a chicken in 2004. The dogs became infected in both their upper and lower respiratory tracts and shed virus from the nose and mouth. But the dogs didn't become sick and there were no lesions in the respiratory tract. The Dutch authors cite a paper of a colleague that the receptors for the virus in cats and humans is only found in the lower respiratory tract, but as we have noted several times, the evidence doesn't establish this and this experiment is consistent either with the existence of bird receptors in the upper tract of dogs or the necessity of the bird receptor affinity for infection being less important than many claim.

In any event, the asymptomatic infection of dogs is something to ponder. If domestic animals (cats and dogs), living in intimate household contact with humans, can be infected and shed virus, it suggests we need to consider pandemic control measures for companion animals.

Here is the actual study discussed above:

http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/13/8/pdfs/07-0393.pdf

Avian flu strongly suspected in France:

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07030702/Qinghai_H5N1_France.html

Three swans found dead in eastern France may have been killed by the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, the French Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday.

"The first results show a suspicion of bird flu..."

The latest suspect infections in France as well as the confirmed H5N1 in June in Germany and the Czech Republic signal a need for an upgraded surveillance program that has increased sensitivity. It is likely that H5N1 is present in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, but the surveillance programs in most countries fail to detect the circulating H5N1.

Scott Mcpherson posts a well thought out essay on his new blog

Top ten reasons why we haven't had an influenza pandemic (but will

one day, probably soon):

http://www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2007/7/2/top-ten-reasons-why-we-havent-had-an-influenza-pandemic-but-.html

Germany, further spread of H5N1:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=89172&postcount=9

This bird also breeds in Alaska:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=89196&postcount=11

Where did high path H5N1 come from?

http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/81/14/7529

(hat tip crofsblog)

(hat tip crofsblog via CIDRAP, a report in the July issue of the Journal of Virology: Characterization of Low-Pathogenic H5 Subtype Influenza Viruses from Eurasia: Implications for the Origin of Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Viruses.)

Here we characterize low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H5 subtype viruses isolated from poultry and migratory birds in southern China and Europe from the 1970s to the 2000s. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Gs/GD-like virus was likely derived from an LPAI H5 virus in migratory birds. However, its variants arose from multiple reassortments between Gs/GD-like virus and viruses from migratory birds or with those Eurasian viruses isolated in the 1970s. It is of note that unlike HPAI H5N1 viruses, those recent LPAI H5 viruses have not become established in aquatic or terrestrial poultry. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the dynamic nature of the influenza virus gene pool in Eurasia with repeated transmissions between the eastern and western extremities of the continent. The data also show reassortment between influenza viruses from domestic and migratory birds in this region that has contributed to the expanded diversity of the influenza virus gene pool among poultry in Eurasia.

So what are they saying?

H5N1 most likely resulted from low path viruses

morphing into highly pathogenic in migratory birds.

This is why the USDA should be rigorously testing and looking for these low path

viruses in wild birds. If they don't look very hard, then of course they might

not find it, and everyone can continue to believe that it's a problem somewhere

else. The low pathogenic H5N1 is already here on the North American continent.

France

The French have confirmed that the swans found dead were indeed H5N1 positive:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=89511&postcount=17

Tests have confirmed that three swans found dead in eastern France were killed by the H5N1 bird flu virus, the French agriculture ministry said on Thursday, France's first cases of the disease in over a year.

The government raised its alert level to "high" as a result, meaning that birds and poultry in mainland France will either have to be locked up or protected by nets to avoid all contact with wild birds, a ministry official said.

"Michel Barnier, minister of agriculture and fishing, is putting in place the risk-prevention measures corresponding to the shift from the 'moderate' level to the 'high' level," the ministry said in a statement.

Germany said it was raising its assessment of the risk of bird flu following the French announcement and after officials on Wednesday discovered more birds that had died of the H5N1 virus, this time in the eastern state of Thuringia.

Spain's Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food on Thursday asked veterinary services to be more vigilant in the outlook for possible bird flu cases.

"EXTREMELY VIGILANT"

French Health Minister Roselyne Bachelot said on television that the country was not threatened by a flu pandemic at this stage but that the government would be remain on alert.

In Britain, the government said there were no new measures in place yet although the situation in France was being monitored in close liaison with the European Commission.

The Netherlands

Poultry ordered indoors:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/07/netherlands-liv.html

Germany

Continuing to find cases in wildbirds:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/07/dozens-more-h5n.html

More wild birds found dead in Germany suggesting that there will be many more

if H5N1 has become endemic to that area of Europe:

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07060701/H5N1_Grebe_Kelbra.html

Here we have the excuse for finding bird flu last year, and why that reasoning is not going to cut it for this year. Time to wake up.

Last year the detection of H5N1 in western Europe in February was said to be due to the harsh winter. However, the current outbreak at the lake, as well as smaller outbreaks in Saxony and Bavaria in Germany, as well as two locations in the Czech Republic and one in France have been identified in June and July.

An unusually virulent form of type A flu virus that progresses to death within 24 hours has parents in Perth, Australia panicked. It would be winter there, the time for a seasonal influenza to hit.

Look at what happened to their ER departments:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2...lia-child.html

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2...n-the-per.html

The medical clinic at Joondalup Hospital was forced to close its doors at 8.30 last night when it became unable to deal with any more patients.

Waiting times at hospital emergency departments blew out by hours, after-hours GP clinics were swamped across Perth and the flu hotline had 130 callers at one time.

Extra staff were rostered at hospitals over the weekend.

They are saying that this flu was an H3, type A influenza, however, they are NOT

saying which H3. Implying that it should be covered by a seasonal flu shot is not

the same thing is saying exactly which virus this is. Will they sequence this virus and make those sequences public? If they did, we might begin to understand why

there was such a rapid progression of symptoms. Twenty four hours from first symptoms to death is unusually severe.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...52&postcount=3

The State of Virginia:

Turkeys have tested positive for a low pathogenic form of avian flu. It is

an H5 subtype found through routine testing:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/07/virginia-turkey.html

So far USDA testing has not identified the actual virus that caused the birds to produce the antibodies.

NVSL is doing further testing to help identify the virus and hopefully determine its source. VDACS, USDA and the poultry owner are working cooperatively to minimize the possibility that the virus will move beyond this farm.

... this is almost certainly one of the many milder strains of avian flu that are not uncommon in poultry and that cause only minor sickness or no noticeable symptoms in birds.

The affected flock contains 54,000 birds, which will be euthanized as soon as possible as a precaution, and will be composted on-site. While LPAI poses no risk to human health, federal and state policy is to eradicate H5 and H7 subtypes because of their potential to change into more serious types, which have a higher mortality rate among birds.

So how does this happen if they are doing this?

The poultry industry in Virginia already maintains strict biosecurity in all aspects of production, from hatchery to farm to processing plant. It is now enhancing its biosecurity measures throughout Virginia to avoid transmission of any potential virus to other farms.