Pandemic News/Awareness.

indigo girl · Feb 10, 2007

The situation in England regarding the finding of H5N1 avian flu in the Bernard Matthews turkey sheds is very confusing. The story keeps changing, and not for the better. I am going to post a few links to show you just how crazy this is getting. I am having a difficult time understanding all of this, so if you find it so, don't be surprised...

First, I'll let the Reveres at Effect Measure have their say:

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2007/02/one_turkey_sandwich_h5n1_on_th.php#more

Then, let's look at what the UK gov't is saying:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=64280&postcount=1

Unfortunately, this study does not seem to agree with their assessment about transmissibility thru the GI tract, and it should be pointed out that some victims (since deceased) have had the consumption of contaminated food as their only risk factor.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=64281&postcount=2

Last, but not least, there is this story of a worker, who participated in the cull. He was bitten by a turkey, and his wound was cleaned with ALCOHOL?

He was not given Tamiflu until after his mother's doctor in Portugal insisted that he go to the hospital. By this time, he has flu s/s according to this post:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=64287&postcount=1

indigo girl · Feb 11, 2007

More from the UK story, I really don't know what to say except that this is astonishing behavior. Does business really come before public health?

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=676082&postcount=34

Government inspectors knew in advance that Bernard Matthews intended to import the meat from a slaughterhouse only 30 miles away from the Hungarian outbreak - but did nothing to stop it.
A spokesman for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) yesterday admitted that it had the power to block such meat imports but had decided not to do so.
Ben Bradshaw, the agriculture minister, blamed the failure to act on fears of retaliatory action against British exports by other European Union states. "There was a fear that if we were to ban imports from Hungary, other countries could treat British exports in the same way," he said.
It meant that meat potentially carrying the flu virus was carried straight through protective cordons set up around the Suffolk plant to prevent the spread of avian flu.

indigo girl · Feb 11, 2007

The Philippines:

(hat tip P4P/Rick)

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/30129/Suspected-bird-flu-carrier-alarms-Sorsogon-officials

The alert was raised following the discovery of a heron, which had tags that indicated that it came from Japan.
Dr. Enrique Espiritu, provincial veterinarian, said the bird was found by a farmer in the town of Preito-diaz that was being frequented by migratory birds for its vast mangrove forest. The town was included in the bird-flu watch list.
Espiritu said herons, being wild, are normally difficult to capture.
He said that the bird was very weak and exhibited symptoms of being ill when found by the farmer who turned it over to Mayor Benito Doma. Doma ordered the immediate disposal of the bird.

Indonesia:

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailtoplatest.asp?fileid=20070211221124&irec=0

JAKARTA (JP): Provincial administrations are being urged to follow Jakarta in banning backyard poultry, as two more bird flu deaths were reported Sunday in Garut regency, West Java.
A 20-year-old woman died at Slamet Hospital in Garut at about 1 a.m., followed by a 9-year old boy at 4:30 p.m.

indigo girl · Feb 11, 2007

UK Medical Ethics in a Pandemic, a discussion that concerns nursing, and not just in the UK. Dr Andrew Lawson lectures in medical ethics at Imperial College, London:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/02/uk-medical-ethics-in-pandemic.html

indigo girl · Feb 12, 2007

Korea continues to have outbreaks of avian flu. They have agressively culled poultry, pigs and other animals (dogs), and in this article they will be culling poultry and pigs, and other unspecified animals. Why pigs? People can catch viruses from pigs due to similarities in receptor sites between humans and pigs. Pigs are one species of mammal that have been infected with H5N1 in the recent past. Remember, everytime a mammal is infected, this virus has another opportunity to evolve, and change from an avian virus into a mammalian virus. The close proximity of the pigs to the poultry is great cause for concern.

We are talking about thousands, and thousands of animals being slaughtered in many different countries to protect the public health of the world, not just that of the infected countries. It is staggering to consider, but most will not be giving this any thought. It is uncomfortable to read about, but they are buying us time.

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200702/200702120010.html

The local authority decided to slaughter 316,000 animals including chickens, ducks and other poultry from 31 farms within a 3-km radius of the outbreak site and 7,000 pigs and other animals from five farms within a 500-meter radius. All 133,000 chickens from Park’s Ansong poultry farm and a further 137,000 chickens at another farm owned by Park in Icheon will be destroyed as well.

Turkey is expanding the quarantine of villages. They say so far all of the people have tested negative despite recent hospitalizations and deaths of children. Of course, sometimes negative results turn out to be positives later, but only if the right lab has access to the specimens, and agrees to release the information, and they are using up to date probes,(just a thought):

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/02/turkey-4-more-villages-quarantined.html

indigo girl · Feb 14, 2007

Here is an article discussing Tamiflu resistance in Egypt as well as the lack of funding to African nations in combating avian flu. As Dr. Niman of Recombinomics has pointed out, viral sequencing indicates that there is more than one strain of H5N1 circulating in wild birds in Egypt, and one of them is Tamiflu resistant. The patients, whose virus was Tamiflu resistant "did NOT develop moderate immunity to Tamiflu. The markers were present in both patients BEFORE Tamiflu treatment."

Also, at least one scientific model indicates that widespread use of antivirals during a pandemic will promote the spread of resistant strains.

(hat tip flutrackers/niman)

http://www.alertnet.org/printable.htm?URL=/thenews/newsdesk/L13621710.htm

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=64795&postcount=7

Laidback Al · Feb 14, 2007

A personal chronicle from sometime in the future as a pandemic ensues.

At You Tube.

pandemic chronicles

pandemic chronicles #2

indigo girl · Feb 14, 2007

WHO Bird Flu Conference in Cairo:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/02/who-bird-flu-conference-in-cairo.html

The World Health Organization has held a conference on bird flu in Cairo. It's part of an effort to prepare the WHO communications strategy for what it says is a near-inevitable pandemic...
More than 100 experts from around the world are attending..
At the conference, WHO and Egyptian health officials stressed the need to inform the public and the media that the crisis is a reality. They said that a unified strategy must be forged in the likely event that it worsens.
Egypt's Health Minister, Hatem El-Gabaly, said that health officials must be realistic about the seriousness of the crisis.
Hatem El-Gabaly, said, "The second issue that I would like to tell my colleagues here is that also they have to realize that the pandemic is likely to happen, and without understanding this and without believing in that, I don't believe that you will be able to relay the right message to the public."

indigo girl · Feb 14, 2007

Another positive case in Egypt, a 37 year old woman, reported to be in stable condition:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=64904&postcount=5

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A well written article that makes some very interesting points:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/14/news/flu.php?page=1

(hat tip Fluwiki)

...the virus is out of control in poultry in three countries — Indonesia, Nigeria and Egypt — with combined populations of 447 million people.
Most alarming to the experts, although it got relatively less attention, was the death last month of a 22-year-old Nigerian woman, an accountant who lived in the crowded financial capital, Lagos.
Officially, only one death from H5N1 was confirmed, but Nigerian newspapers said the woman's mother died with similar symptoms two weeks earlier, and a female relative was sick but recovered. If true, that suggests a cluster of cases with possible human-to-human transmission.
The virus has also been found in cats. That is not new; one of the most startling outbreaks killed 103 tigers in a Thai zoo in 2004. But no human has been known to have been infected by a cat.
World Health Organization reports almost always link human cases to proximity to dead poultry, but Naipospos, the Indonesian flu expert, released data at a flu conference in Washington on Feb. 1 calling that into question. In the 82 human cases studied, she said, only 45 percent of victims had direct exposure to sick poultry.
An additional 35 percent had "indirect" exposure, which meant sick birds in the neighborhood, and 20 percent were "inconclusive." ... Virologists believe that the situation that must be avoided at all costs is to have humans with seasonal flu catch H5N1, too, because the viruses could mix.
Indonesia's best prevention against that, Naipospos said, is the "Tamiflu blanket." "We learned that in Garut," she said of a cluster of cases last August in West Java. More than 20 people died or suffered serious symptoms.
The government quickly gave the antiviral drug to more than 2,000 people.

They gave Tamiflu to more than 2,000 people, and yet we are not concerned?

European scientists have warned against feral cats around poultry farms, and veterinarians in Indonesia and Iraq have reported high mortality rates in cats near H5N1 outbreaks in poultry.

(hat tip Fluwiki/DennisC for this info)

indigo girl · Feb 15, 2007

Good News, Bad News , yes FlaMedic, I agree, let's look at both:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/02/good-news-bad-news.html

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New Swiss Influenza Data Base to Test Promises of Access:

This is good news. Let us hope for the success of this project, and that countries, and agencies will be transparent with this data that is so crucial to world health.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=65125&postcount=1

...it will be filled with decades' worth of influenza data from humans, birds, and other species. Bairoch believes Switzerland's famed neutrality will help win over countries reluctant to contribute to a U.S.-sponsored database.
The issue of influenza sharing made fresh headlines last week when Indonesia announced it would no longer share viral samples of H5N1 with WHO without a so-called Material Transfer Agreement that limits commercial use of the virus. But even if Indonesia no longer shares viruses, Bogner says he has guarantees that it will keep sharing its H5N1 sequence data with GISAID.

indigo girl · Feb 15, 2007

Update of the spread of H5N1 Influenza in Turkey and several other countries:

Surveillance is poor for many reasons, lack of money, economic consequences, denial, fear...

That is why the disease is frequently not found until it is impossible to hide the effects even then, poultry deaths can be blamed on other reasons, loud noises (China), suffocation from equipment failure (France), well you get the picture.

Why should you care? There is a pandemic occurring right now in the avian species. The virus responsible has jumped species, and is very pathogenic to humans. It is highly adaptable, simply lacking the means so far of sustained human to human transmission, though it has mangaged some limited transmissions. Humans have no immunity to H5N1.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02150701/H5N1_Turkey_Spread.html

This season, surveillance is again extremely poor...All of these reports described the Qinghai strain of H5N1 which is transported and transmitted by migratory birds, but detection is generally limited to wild birds that have died or infection of poultry in backyard or commercial farms.

indigo girl · Feb 16, 2007

The 37 year old latest H5N1 victim in Egypt died last evening. Previously we had been told that she was stable and responding well to treatment. It seemed hopeful that she would survive, but she did not. It is likely that she was treated too late. The case fatality rate in Egypt this season remains at 100%, and that is really depressing news.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/02/egypt-13th-bird-flu-fatality-reported.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02160702/H5N1_Sharqiya.html

Now there is another case diagnosed in a five year old. Let us hope that his infection was diagnosed and treated promptly.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=65261&postcount=2