NYC Funeral Directors Prepare for 2d Wave

[indigo girl]

http://yournabe.com/articles/2009/08/17/queens/queensxtfwnic08122009.txt

I guess it is practical for them to prepare, macabre as it may seem to us. Of great interest is the figures supposedly from the CDC about the projected death rate from swine flu. The astonishing projected CFR (case fatality ratio) is 2.1% to 3.3%! This should jump out at anyone familiar with the figures from the 1918 Spanish flu which was around 2%, so how can this possibly be true? The reporter on the story has been contacted by someone over at the Flutracker forum where I picked this up for some much needed verification. If it is true, than this would be quite the story. I suspect the numbers are in error. Even the funeral directors are questioning this as well they should. If CDC really did say this, I would expect some serious back pedaling in response to this news as more people become aware.

The part about storing bodies in Germany is really creepy. What a very strange article this is.

The MetFDA is holding four meetings in the city and one in Westchester this month to better prepare funeral homes for a possible increase in deaths as well as a rise in the number of sick and absent employees.

MetFDA officials said they were also relaying information from the meetings to city agencies, including the city Health Department and the medical examiner's office, with which they have been working in preparation for a potential second wave of swine flu.

As of July, more than 900 New Yorkers had been hospitalized with H1N1 and 47 had died, including two Queens residents, according to city statistics.

City residents continue to come down with H1N1, but the numbers have continually decreased since the spike of cases in May, health officials said.

The Centers for Disease Control has predicted a 2.1 percent to 3.3 percent death rate among those who come down with swine flu this fall, which translates into an additional 52,000 to 86,000 deaths in the city over a three-month period, Kasdan said.

"It's mind-boggling," Kasdan said of the possible death rate. "Is the CDC right? Who knows-hopefully not. But you need to be prepared."

The potential upswing in fatalities poses a wide array of questions for city officials and funeral directors, such as where to store bodies, how to hold funerals in a climate where swine flu is passed easily from person to person and how many extra supplies will be needed.

"You may have to wait for funerals because the family is sick or until the cemetery says they're able to do the burial," Kasdan said. "You might have to store bodies longer."

Kasdan said the city medical examiner is already looking into possibly using vacant city buildings to store bodies, and the city has contracted for a unit to be built in Germany that will handle hundreds of bodies.

(hat tip flutrackers/treyfish)

[oramar]

Is it possible that they said 2 to 3% rate of sever infections with possible 2 to 3% of that group dying from complications? Which still means the sever cases will overwhelm the healthcare system and the deaths will tax the funeral directors.

[Girl Scout]

It's chilling to start reading projections and figures and possibilities, but it's necessary to have some idea if we're going to be prepared.

I may have overlooked it - I often speed read, thank you ADHD - but someone on another forum posted the link to the NYC CME's Surge Plan For Managing In- and Out-of-Hospital Deaths.