Update from CDC

oramar · May 25, 2009

CDC must be behind in their records. This man who died in Missouri, we are hearing had no prior existing conditions:
http://www.kansascity.com/news/breaking_news/story/1205608.html

Is there any evidence that a lot of the people who have died up here were actually exposed in Mexico. Is it possible that somehow the virus strain down there is more sever? I guess we have been over this ground before. Did they have so many deaths down there because it was a really big outbreak(the percentage of deaths could actually be the same it is just that we have fewer cases) OR is there a more virulent strain in Mexico OR is it exactly the same strain of virus but the people infected in Mexico doing something differently than the people up here thereby causing more deaths? I wonder if they will ever find out what is going on? I know these are the 6 million dollar questions.

meme048 · May 25, 2009

[b]table. u.s. human cases of h1n1 flu infection[/b](as of may 25, 2009, 11:00 am et) states*             [url="http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/casedef.htm"]confirmed and probable cases[/url]       deathsalabama                    66 cases                           0 deathsarkansas                     4 cases                           0 deathsarizona                    531 cases                           3 deathscalifornia                  553 cases                           0 deathscolorado                    60 cases                           0 deaths connecticut              102 cases                           0 deathsdelaware                  102 cases                           0 deathsflorida                      139 cases                           0 deathsgeorgia                      28 cases                           0 deathshawaii                       40 cases                            0 deathsidaho                          9 cases                            0 deathsillinois                      896 cases                            0 deathsindiana                     120 cases                            0 deathsiowa                         71 cases                             0 deathskansas                      34 cases                             0 deathskentucky**               27 cases                              0 deathslouisiana                   86 cases                             0 deathsmaine                         9 cases                             0 deathsmaryland                   41 cases                             0 deathsmassachusetts          238 cases                             0 deathsmichigan                  176 cases                             0 deathsminnesota                  44 cases                             0 deathsmississippi                   7 cases                             0 deathsmissouri                     24 cases                            1 deathsmontana                    12 cases                            0 deathsnebraska                    29 cases                            0 deathsnevada                      49 cases                            0 deathsnew hampshire            23 cases                            0 deathsnew jersey                 29 cases                            0 deathsnew mexico                97 cases                            0 deathsnew york                   343 cases                          1 deathsnorth carolina              12 cases                           0 deathsnorth dakota                6 cases                            0 deathsohio                          14 cases                            0 deathsoklahoma                   51 cases                            0 deathsoregon                     116 cases                            0 deathspennsylvania               88 cases                            0 deathsrhode island               10 cases                             0 deathssouth carolina             36 cases                            0 deathssouth dakota                3 cases                            0 deathstennessee                  94 cases                            0 deathstexas                       900 cases                            3 deathsutah                        122 cases                             1 deathsvermont                      2 cases                              0 deathsvirginia                      25 cases                              0 deathswashington               517 cases                             1 deathwashington, d.c.        13 cases                              0 deathswisconsin                 766 cases                              0 deaths[b]total*(48)            [/b][b]6,764 cases                                 [/b][b]10 deaths[/b]*includes the district of columbia**one case is resident of ky but currently hospitalized in ga.this table will be updated daily monday-friday at around 11 am et.international human cases of swine flu infectionsee: [url="http://www.who.int/en/"]world health organization[/url][url="http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm#linkpolicy"][img=http://www.cdc.gov/templatepackage/images/icon_out.png][/url].[b]note: [/b]because of daily reporting deadlines, the state totals reported by cdc may not always be consistent with those reported by [url="http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/states.htm"]state health departments[/url]. if there is a discrepancy between these two counts, data from the state health departments should be used as the most accurate number.

meme048 · May 29, 2009

Press briefing from cdc

http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090528.htm

Some highlights:

Anne Schuchat: Great, okay. The question of incremental changes in virulence severity is important. We are in planning stages with partners in other countries, with national, I'm sorry, international networks like the Pan-American Health Organization and World Health Organization, in ways to try to improve information availability from countries that will just be going into their flu season shortly or have already started. To understand whether the patterns that they see are different from what we have been seeing here. Severity has been extremely challenging to measure. because of the wide spectrum of illness that influenza can cause. And even with the most severe pandemic we know about, the 1918 pandemic, the mortality for that was about, at the 2% range. It's hard to be very precise in these ranges that we're seeing right now of .15%, or .2% of all cases resulting in death. So whether we'll be able to pick up an incremental increase in virulence, I can't promise. I think we think it's the kind of thing that's important to look for. And it's an emphasis area for us, but we may not be able to answer those information needs precisely. There are a number of criteria that will be part of the decision-making, regarding use of vaccine in the fall. And I think one of the issues here is that I think many leaders are keen to get public input into these types of decisions, to understand where our communities and citizens are thinking. But in terms of the typical criteria, issues like how severe disease is. How disruptive disease is. Who is getting the disease? Is it possible to prevent disease? You know, we certainly make a great effort to prevent seasonal influenza, with production of vaccine and use of more than 100 million doses of vaccine every year. So the opportunity we have right now, because this disease emerged in the spring here, for actual vaccine development to go forward, we have an opportunity to potentially have a prevention tool for something in the fall. That wouldn't have been the case, had disease first emerged in September or October. On the other hand, the, the clinical studies that will be done are going to be vital. Because if these clinical tests suggest in a we cannot make a vaccine that is protective, or is that there is just unacceptable safety properties of a vaccine that appears to have a good immune response, we'll need to really weigh that heavily into a recommendation for vaccination. So there will be both practical criteria, like the results of these clinical studies, and information about the clinical disease we've had so far. And disease that may be forthcoming in the southern hemisphere. And where it occurs, and what age groups and what populations. is it really feasible to prevent a lot of disease with a campaign. So those are some criteria that will go into that thinking.

We do continue to see more cases in more places. Though we're not seeing dramatic large increases, the numbers I'll share with you today will look like a big bump from the last media briefing we've done. And that's really because of no reporting over the long weekend. Internationally, the W.H.O. is reporting 13,398 confirmed cases in 48 countries with Singapore and Bahrain being most recently added to the list. Here in the U.S. our official count today is 8,585 probable and confirmed cases. We're aware of 12 fatalities and 507 hospitalizations. Most of the people that are getting sick are continuing to be in that 5 to 24-year age group. That's 62% of all the cases that we're counting. And that it still appears relatively rare for people 65 and over to come down with the infection. There's only about 1% of our confirmed or probable cases in that age group. I want to let you know that beginning next week, we're going to shift to a different schedule. We'll be updating our case count information less frequently. And every Friday we'll be doing updates of what we call FluView, a more extensive report on many ways that we track influenza. Weekly reporting through FluView is what we do during the annual influenza season, including the peak of the season. And we hope that sharing information on that basis will keep people informed.

meme048 · May 29, 2009

Weekly flu report

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

meme048 · Jun 5, 2009

Latest figures from CDC June 5th, 2009

13217 confirmed cases, 27 deaths

Huge jump from last update on June 1st, 2009

10,053 confirmed cases, 17 deaths

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

indigo girl · Jun 6, 2009

Yes. Remember that they are only testing the severe cases now. The real number of cases in the US is likely to be in the hundreds of thousands by now. Maybe this is a good thing. These people will hopefully be immune to the fall/winter version of the virus.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=243735&postcount=18

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=243739&postcount=20

meme048 · Jun 12, 2009

UPDATED TODAY

17,855 cases 45 deaths

See link below for state count

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

Maria

indigo girl · Jun 12, 2009

Thank you for this update.

Of course, everyone realizes by now that the CDC numbers represent only a partial picture of what in reality is occurring, and as such it is just a tool. This is why NYC public health conducted a phone surveillance. They wanted to get a better idea of cases, and even that result gave us a very flawed picture.

This is some of what we can get from the CDC surveillance:

Recognize that they are behind in their number of cases.

They only give us the number of cases that have been tested, and most people do not even get tested.

Because only severe cases get tested, we can probably assume those numbers do mean someone that is really sick as opposed to just a mild case.

There are many, many more uncounted mild cases than severe ones.

Since the rapid flu test is only about 50 to 60 % accurate, lots of false negatives will occur in which the patient really does have flu. For example, two terminal cases in Texas tested negative while living, but positive at autopsy. CDC has learned from those terrible outcomes especially since one was pregnant. They have just issued new guidelines for pregnant women. Now they do not wait for a positive confirmatory test result to start Tamiflu which must be given in the first 48 hours to be most effective if they are suspecting swine flu. Incidentally, this is also why doctors in Indonesia will give Tamiflu to symptomatic patients if they suspect bird flu even though they test negative with the rapid flu tests. They have learned in the worst possible way that they will end up with many dead patients if they trust the rapid flu tests to be accurate.

meme048 · Jun 26, 2009

Latest update on 6/25/09 Go to http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

Total 27,717 cases 127 deaths

On 6/18/09

Total 21449 cases 87 deaths

On 6/12/09

Total 17,855 cases 44 deaths

indigo girl · Jun 26, 2009

Latest update on 6/25/09 Go to http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm
Total 27,717 cases 127 deaths
On 6/18/09
Total 21449 cases 87 deaths
On 6/12/09
Total 17,855 cases 44 deaths

Again, these are only the folks that were tested positive, mostly from rapid flu tests which are notoriously unreliable.

The CDC admits to a probable 1 million cases in the US, and the reality is most likely 10X that.

And, many deaths might not list H1N1 as the cause if they had a prior existing condition that was exacerbated by the flu.

Katnip, RN · Jun 26, 2009

I just read an article-wish I can remember the link-that said if you include the mild cases, the total number could be about 1 million.

Do you think that's a fairly accurate number, Indigo, or is it just more media hoo-haa?

indigo girl · Jun 26, 2009

I think that is a very conservative estimate. It is more likely 10X that in the US alone, most undiagnosed. Maybe this is good as they might be immune during the surge this winter.

Watching Argentina try to cope makes me worry how we will do then. The pandemic is at different stages in every country experiencing cases.

I have read somewhere that the CFR in Argentina is 1.6% but whether this is true or not, I do not know. It was 2% in 1918.

When it is all over in a few years, we will know more.

In the meantime, we need to prepare personally as well as in our local communities. Coping is going to be a local problem everywhere there are cases.