Disaster/Pandemic preparedness

indigo girl · Sep 23, 2008

What Japan Is Doing

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/09/japan-national-police-agency-releases.html

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/09/japan-pre-pandemic-vaccination-priority.html

Over the summer 6,000 medical personnel were inoculated in Japan in the
largest test of the vaccine to date to see if unwanted side effects would
show up.
Nothing serious has been reported.
Now Japan is drawing up a list of 10 to 15 million workers who would,
during a pandemic, be at particular risk of contracting the virus and who
are considered essential.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/09/japan-mask-recommendations-for-public.html

A government health panel is recommending the use of masks in the
event a new type of influenza breaks out in Japan, suggesting that
households should store 20 to 25 masks per person.
The recommendations from the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry
- special conference, compiled in a report Monday, are due to be
carried on the ministry's Web site in the near future, as the ministry
calls for caution among residents.
Masks are sold in packs at pharmacies and convenience stores. However,
they are not able to completely stop people from breathing in viruses, and
the ministry says it is important for people not to come within two meters
of patients and to take preventive measures such as avoiding crowded places.

indigo girl · Sep 27, 2008

And the Answer Is . . . At Least Two Weeks

It is worth noting that, in this Webcast we are hearing probably for the

first time that the Red Cross is inferring that you might actually

need 6 to 12 months of supplies. Now what emergency can you think

of that would really last 6 to 12 months other than a pandemic?

If he is saying at least 2 weeks because that is all they think most people

could afford to do but then says 6 to 12 months would be ideal,

that might give you a clue as to how long the Red Cross thinks the

situation would last.

Is it that difficult to put some canned goods away? I think most of us

could manage to put a month's worth of food by if we did some

budgeting, and put family security ahead of entertainment. But, it is

true, many folks are struggling just to get by in today's economy.

Do your best to have some kind of plan for emergencies.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/09/and-answer-is-at-least-two-weeks.html

During yesterday's HHS Webcast on personal preparedness the question was asked:
How long should American households be stocking up for?
The answer given by Dr. Richard Benjamin, Chief Medical Officer, of the American Red Cross was:
"At least two-weeks."
He went on to say, "but if you could do more, that would be a wonderful thing."
He added, "Six to 12 months would be wonderful, but that's probably not
practical for most people."

indigo girl · Sep 30, 2008

Three reasons to consider getting the pneumonia vaccine sometime soon:

As we move into flu season in the year 2008. Consider the wisdom of

trying to protect yourself from the secondary infection that caused many

of the deaths in 1918. This vaccine may not keep you from getting

pneumonia, but it might keep you from dying from it.

Sometimes people get the flu even though they are vaccinated.

Doctors will then treat them with Tamiflu, but we now live in a world in

which one of our seasonal influenzas, H1N1 has become increasingly

resistant to Tamiflu, our primary antiviral.

It is a fact that most countries are actively preparing for the next

pandemic. Has the world ever prepared in advance for a pandemic

event before? The spread of the H5N1 virus into Europe, Africa, and

Asia is great cause for concern. Most efforts to eradicate it have

been temporarily successful at best as it almost always reappears later.

It is likely to be an ongoing situation. There is no way to predict if this

will be the pandemic virus but it is true that H5N1 is adapting to mammals,

and that it is a very virulent virus killing most of those it infects.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=36851&postcount=17

indigo girl · Oct 4, 2008

HHS Personal Preparation Webcast Now Archived And Available Online

Personal preparedness for the next pandemic, courtesy of the US govt:

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/10/hhs-personal-preparation-webcast-now.html

On September 25th, the HHS held the 6th in their series of online
Webinars designed to spread the word about pandemic preparedness.
The archived video of this 57 minute session is now online, and available
for people to watch.

indigo girl · Oct 5, 2008

CDC takes notice of Akron's flu plan

Organization hopes to use ideas as role model for other communities

to prepare for pandemic

http://www.ohio.com/news/30480434.html

Usually, communities will talk about preparing for a pandemic by
choosing a gymnasium or civic center that will serve as a make-shift
hospital ward when hospitals fill up, Levy said. But a plan requires much
more than that, including arranging for staffing, providing supplies and
setting ''triggers'' for when the plan should be set in motion.
Among the ideas in the Akron plan are:
* Creating a call-in center, which would allow people to stay home
while getting their flu questions answered.
* Moving non-flu patients, such as those recovering from heart attacks,
surgery or childbirth, to long-term-care facilities, so they're not exposed
to the flu virus.
* Opening a site that could serve as a hospital for severely ill flu patients,
to keep them from spreading the virus to other hospital patients.
* Setting up triage sites away from emergency rooms, to direct patients
toward the proper care.
* Using a mobile facility to treat patients.
* Converting outpatient offices into sites for distributing vaccines and
medications.

(hat tip PFI/pixie)

indigo girl · Oct 17, 2008

World Bank Says Flu Pandemic May Cost World Economy Up to $3 Trillion (Update2)

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=185828&postcount=1

A slump in tourism, transportation and retail sales, as well as workplace
absenteeism and lower productivity caused by a ``severe'' outbreak, may
cut global gross domestic product by 4.8 percent, the Washington-based
bank said in a report obtained by Bloomberg News. Economic modeling by
the bank in June 2006 estimated GDP would drop by 3.1 percent, or about
$2 trillion. Measures to avoid infection would generate most of the
costs, said the report, which used simulations to underline the
importance of global preparations for a pandemic sparked by bird flu.
Human cases of the H5N1 avian-influenza strain have fallen by half this
year as controls of outbreaks in poultry improve.
``Even with such efforts, an eventual human pandemic at some unknown
point in the future is virtually inevitable,'' Andrew Burns, Dominique
van der Mensbrugghe and Hans Timmer, economists at the bank, wrote
in the report.
``The potential cost of a human pandemic is massive compared with the
quite modest sums required to ensure pandemic preparedness,'' said
David Nabarro, UN senior coordinator for avian and pandemic influenza,
in a telephone interview from Geneva today. The funds ``must be coupled
with political commitment to ensure that all parts of government, civil
society and the private sector are prepared to keep functioning in the
event of a pandemic.''
Such a contagion would start when a novel influenza A-type virus, to which
almost no one has natural immunity, emerges and begins spreading. Experts
believe that the so-called 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, which may have killed
as many as 50 million people, began when an avian flu virus jumped to people.

indigo girl · Oct 18, 2008

Lloyds of London on the Pandemic Threat

http://tinyurl.com/6aw5jd

Everyone knows who Lloyds of London is, right?

The Emerging Risks team is part of the Franchise Performance
Directorate at Lloyd's. We define an emerging risk as an issue that is
perceived to be potentially significant but which may not be fully
understood or allowed for in insurance terms and conditions, pricing,
reserving or capital setting. Our objective is to ensure that the Lloyd's
market is aware of potentially significant emerging risks so that it can
decide on an appropriate response to them.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/10/lloyds-report-closer-look.html

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. A PANDEMIC IS INEVITABLE With historic recurrence rates of 30-50
years it is prudent to assume that a pandemic will occur at some point in
the future. The severity of such events is highly variable; some estimates
suggest the most severe to date, in 1918, killed up to 100m. Many pandemics
affect the old and young; but some (including the 1918 event) can,
perversely, affect the most healthy.
2. 1918 MAY NOT BE THE WORST CASE It is certainly true that the 1918
event was extreme relative to other pandemics in history. However many
published "worst case" scenarios take 1918 as a base. There is a danger
that we over optimise to this one scenario. There are other forms of
pandemic than influenza, some have higher case mortality. Pandemic
preparedness should consider a range of scenarios to ensure plans are
appropriately flexible.
3. ECONOMIC IMPACTS MAY BE SIGNIFICANT A repeat of the 1918 event
is expected to cause a global recession with estimated impacts ranging
from 1% to 10% of global GDP. Most industries will be affected, some more
than others. In particular, industries with significant face to face contact will
be impacted significantly. Insurers investment assets may be affected
depending on the mix held. Wider economic and social effects may lead to
secondary forms of loss for insurers.
4. MANY INSURANCE LOSSES ARE POSSIBLE For some classes of
business such as, life and health it is clear that the impact will be
adverse. For other classes of business it is less clear but many forms
of liability covers including general liability, D&O, Medical Malpractice
as well as specific products offering business interruption and event
cancellation could be triggered. Inner limits for Pandemic losses
(vertical and sideways) may help to contain exposure.
5. SECONDARY IMPACTS MAY OCCUR Events causing significant global
and societal turmoil can give rise to considerable secondary impacts. It
is far from clear which of these, if any, would occur; but for resilience
planning purposes it is worth considering them. For example the
lawlessness experienced in New Orleans after Katrina could be repeated
if police services are affected. Traditional claims such as fire loss may be
exacerbated if fire emergency services have depleted efficiency and if
tradesmen are in short supply.

indigo girl · Oct 21, 2008

Video: Pandemic Prevention - Bird Flu and Emerging Diseases

Don't understand why all the concern about bird flu? Check out one of

the following. Dr. Greger does an excellent job of simplifying for a lay

audience in the 11 minute version. This is serious stuff. Hoping it

won't happen is not going to help, but preparation will.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/10/video-pandemic-prevention-bird-flu-and.html

Dr Michael Greger is is a physician, an author, and a much sought after
public speaker on a variety of public health issues. Dr. Greger has
written three books, including Bird Flu: A Virus Of Our Own Hatching -
which is available to read for free online at his website.
He is also the Director of Public Health and Animal Agriculture at The
Humane Society of the United States.

His one hour lecture:

http://videos.med.wisc.edu/videoInfo.php?videoid=241

The eleven minute version:

http://video.hsus.org/index.jsp?fr_story=cd17a1def7749aba7f9484996e4315882e5e9725&rf=rss

indigo girl · Oct 25, 2008

A history lesson from the Reveres at Effect Measure, with permission:

Bird flu reminder

With the advent of flu season the perennial question of the "next
pandemic" is again making an appearance, although I think it is more
of a cameo appearance than a substantive one. WHO, CDC and
numerous state health departments are warning citizens about
seasonal flu, still a major public health problem, and the continuing
threat of emergence of a novel flu virus to which the earth's population
has little or no immunity. There is something both plaintive and formulaic
about these warnings. Seasonal flu is with us every flu season (hence
its name) and the feared pandemic of bird flu has yet to materialize.
Meanwhile there are great many "important things" claiming our
attention, not the least of which is a global financial system in meltdown.
People have been warning of a potential financial crisis for years, but it
didn't happen. Until now.
So what about a bird flu pandemic? It is just as hard to predict as a
financial crisis. The world of public health has been trying to prepare for
the possibility of a pandemic with the most likely culprit, the H5N1
subtype of influenza A. H5N1 is endemic in poultry and avian wildlife in
many countries. It infects humans infrequently (one would have to say
rarely, given the prevalence of exposure) but when it does it is highly
virulent. Case fatality ratios are well over 50%. But so far it is not easily
transmissible between people, the last step to making this a truly
horrific pathogen. Most countries and most states in the US now have
some kind of pandemic plan but these are mainly on paper. There is an
old military adage that most battle plans don't survive the first
engagement with the enemy, and this is certain to be true with most
pandemic plans as well. The geographic spread of bird flu to poultry
and humans has stabilized, but that is small comfort for flu scientists.
There are billions upon billions of viruses replicating out there in one
kind of host or another, and each replication is an experiment in finding
a recipe for efficient replication in a new host. The number of possible
combinations is unimaginably large so it is not a given, even with all
that natural experimentation going on, that a deadly recipe is
inevitable or imminent.
Human cases of H5N1 first appeared in Hong Kong in 1997. A heroic
effort on the part of Hong Kong public health and veterinary
authorities involved culling nearly every poultry animal on the island
and the world appeared to have dodged a bullet. But out of nowhere
H5N1 reappeared in poultry in 2003 and the incidental human cases
started appearing along with it. Where it was in the 6 years prior to
that we don't know. But it wasn't gone. The relative quiet (relative to
the several years preceding) shouldn't be interpreted as a war that
as been won. We have no idea what controls the dynamics of this
disease.
Ninety years ago, just about this time, the 1918 pandemic's ferocious
second wave was reaching its peak. It seemed to come out of nowhere
(although retrospectively it was visible the previous spring) and fell like
a giant hammer. It's a reminder that things can turn on a dime in this
world. I don't expect this will get anyone's attention. There is too much
noise out there. But it doesn't hurt to remind everyone.
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

"The Editors of Effect Measure are senior public health scientists and

practitioners. Paul Revere was a member of the first local Board of

Health in the United States (Boston, 1799). The Editors sign their posts

"Revere" to recognize the public service of a professional forerunner

better known for other things."

indigo girl · Nov 6, 2008

Florida Testing of Wild Bird Kills

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/treasurecoast/content/local_news/epaper/2008/

Part of the national surveillance for avian influenza involves the testing of

migratory birds which we might expect in Alaska, but testing is occurring

even as far south as Florida.

As the migratory game bird season gets under way, wildlife officials announced
this week that they will begin their annual testing of bagged game birds for
the avian flu. Participation is voluntary, and biologists will test the birds'
respiratory and digestive tracks at several duck-hunting hot spots throughout
the state.
The sampling is part of an international surveillance effort to determine
whether migratory birds carry the deadly flu. Last year, more than
65,000 samples were collected nationwide, including more than 1,200
samples in Florida. None of the samples tested positive. It is "extremely
unlikely" that hunters could be infected by wild birds in Florida.

indigo girl · Nov 13, 2008

Africa: International Partners Work to Prevent Next Pandemic

http://allafrica.com/stories/200811130611.html

Most emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses-animal diseases that
can be transmitted to people-and most zoonoses arise from wildlife,
so anywhere in the world that wild animals and people interact, a new
disease can enter the human population.
Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the company behind the world's
most popular Internet search engine, is supporting efforts to identify hot
spots where such diseases are most likely to emerge and to detect
new pathogens circulating in animals and people.
An initial $14.8 million, announced October 21 as part of the Predict
and Prevent initiative, is going to six partnerships working in Africa
and Southeast Asia. Their shared goal is to help nations and global
organizations for animal and human health learn about and respond
to outbreaks before they become global crises.
The work is accomplished through a global network of partners --
collaborators and field teams, and laboratories where increasingly
advanced techniques allow researchers to understand and discover
disease agents in completely new ways.
"We think about where in the world do we believe there to be
important viruses -- what are the hot spots," Wolfe said. "Then we
charge into the hot spots and focus our energy on the interface
between humans and animals -- hunters, maybe people working
in wet markets, wildlife veterinarians -- people in close contact with
animals. Then we sample at that interface -- what's in the animals,
what's in the humans, and what's jumping from the animals into
the humans."
"We are still at the very beginnings of the science of pandemic
prevention, but that doesn't mean that we are without skills or
facilities," Wolfe said.

(hat tip pixie/PFI)

A Disaster Simulator In A Deck Of Cards

I wonder if this game comes in an English language version.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/11/disaster-simulator-in-deck-of-

cards.html

"Suppose you're a nurse. The hospital you're working for has decided
to accept avian flu patients. You are worried you could become
infected and subsequently infect your child, who goes to a daycare
center, with the flu. Do you think it's appropriate to make up an excuse
to miss work in this situation?"
This is one of the situations found in an increasingly popular card
game called "Crossroads" in which participants exchange views about
serious situations players could find themselves in.
The game was first devised for disaster prevention purposes after the
1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake. Since then, many versions of the game
have been developed, including games on subjects such as bird flu and
food safety.

Japan Donates Tamiflu And PPE's To The Philippines

It's a mystery why H5N1 has not been reported in the Philippines yet.

Japan has been very generous in helping them to prepare.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/11/japan-donates-tamiflu-and-ppe-to.html

Today, in a press release posted on the Japanese Embassy website, it
was announced that Japan would donate 75,000 courses of Tamiflu, and
35,000 sets of PPE's (Personal Protective Equipment) to the Philippines.
Japan has made a sizable commitment to the member nations of
ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) to provide them with
Tamiflu and PPE's in anticipation of a possible pandemic.
Their donations are eventually expected to reach 1 million courses
of Tamiflu and 700,000 sets of PPEs.

indigo girl · Nov 16, 2008

Very recent videos on Pandemic Influenza

Thank you to Florida Medic of Avian Flu Diary for making us

aware of these, and to everyone involved making this information

available.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/11/october-hhs-webcast-now-available.html

Secretary Leavitt’s Discussion on Pandemic Planning and Preparedness
(October 29, 2008) – 72 minutes
Secretary Mike Leavitt
Dr. Bill Raub, Science Advisor to Secretary Leavitt
Dr. Michael Osterholm, University of Minnesota
Maggie Fox, Reuters

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/11/video-threat-of-avian-influenza.html

The CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies) held a meeting on
November 13th, where Dr. David Nabarro and U.S. State Department
Special Representative John Lange presented the latest information on
the Pandemic threat.
We are fortunate to have the 90 minute video of this meeting available
for viewing.