Disaster/Pandemic preparedness - page 6
I was looking the the other Disaster/Pandemic thread that Florida1 started. She mentioned that after the hurricanes, that they had problems getting basic supplies and food stores were often closed... Read More
Apr 12, '07How do they plan for the number of ventilators and critical care beds that might be needed? They use models such as the CDC's Flu Surge. But, the numbers can vary based on which scenario is applied. If applying a mild scenario such as the 1968 flu pandemic, it will be quite different from a 1918 type of event. And, of course, if using the current CFR of H5N1 in Indonesia than their numbers are totally off base.
This article is from June 2006. Perhaps they have updated their model since then, based on the reality of what is happening now.
(hat tip fluwiki)
Apr 12, '07Another article from a Pennsylvania news source about how to prepare:
This is a good basic list.
Quote from http://www.cumberlink.com/articles/2007/04/11/news/news521.txt(hat tip P4P/bannor)What you need to wait out flu
A basic survival kit for pandemic flu includes:
• Water — minimum 3 gallons per day per person (don’t forget your pets).
• Baby food, diapers and other baby necessities.
• Baking soda
• Beans (dried and canned).
• Bottled drinks and juices (not refrigerated type).
• Canned broth or bouillon (for use in place of water for cooking).
• Canned meats and fish.
• Canned pastas with meat.
• Canned fruit.
• Canned milk, evaporated milk.
• Canned soups with meat and vegetables.
• Canned vegetables.
• Coffee and coffee filters.
• Corn meal
• Cream of Wheat, oatmeal or other dry cereals
• Dried fruits
• Dried soups
• Dry coffee creamer
• Granola bars
• Hard candy
• Hot chocolate mix or dried cocoa
• Instant mashed potatoes
• Jellies and jams
• Pancake mix and other mixes that have eggs included
• Peanut butter
• Pet food
• Prepared instant foods ( noodles/macaroni and cheese)
• Salt and other spices and herbs
• Velveeta cheese
• Matches or disposable lighters
• Manual can opener
• Flashlights and batteries
• Eye protection
• N95 masks
• Over-the-counter medications
• Lysol and Clorox products for cleaning
• Pedialite or Gatorade for dehydration
• Thermometer (one per person)
She points to sources like the United Nations that suggest a six-week supply.Last edit by indigo girl on Apr 12, '07
Apr 15, '07This was written a year ago by a past president of the AMA:
(hat tip PFIF/kimT)
Quote from http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/category/16750.htmlI don't know that I agree with all of his conclusions but at least he takes the threat seriously. I am also sorry to say that no one is thinking to speak to nursing. Who do they think is going to be taking care of all these patients anyway?Back in 1918, the influenza virus followed the railroad lines, which enabled it to travel quickly across the nation. Today, thanks to mass transit, airplanes and cars, people and their diseases can move even more quickly across county, state and national lines. Faster than our forebears could have imagined.
The question we face is this: In this high-speed environment, can we mobilize our defenses quickly enough?
That question is open to debate. Back in February, the director of a county public health department in one major U.S. city said: "At this point, we can get through a 1918-like flu pandemic. But no one will think we did a good job. When it happens, it'll be bad. It'll make Hurricane Katrina look like a picnic."
Hardly words to instill confidence.
Yet, we cannot allow ourselves to be discouraged. We must continue to prepare, and to remember that we already have, or are capable of producing, the tools we need to combat a flu pandemic.
We just need to be able to deploy these tools effectively and efficiently. Under the most challenging circumstances possible.
And we must remember: All health care is local.Last edit by indigo girl on Apr 15, '07
Apr 15, '07Red Cross Instructions - Homecare for Pandemic Flu
Apr 15, '07Home Alone
Would you be prepared?
Apr 17, '07Pandemic planners urged to tap grass roots
Some flu bloggers and sites are mentioned in this
CIDRAP report as examples of what is available.
Quote from www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/apr1707citizen.htmlGovernmental plans for an influenza pandemic are missing an important opportunity to improve US preparedness, according to two new reports: They are not reaching out to communities and grass-roots groups that could refine plan details and increase public support.
Meanwhile, ad hoc communities and preparedness alliances are forming--in the real world and online--with minimal input from government planners. And, confirming the reports' concerns, some members of those communities say they have networks and resources to offer to official efforts, but are frustrated by their inability to make themselves heard.
The first report, "Community Engagement: Leadership Tool for Catastrophic Health Events," was published Apr 4 by the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC). The report, which sums up the findings of a 27-member panel convened by the center during 2006, asserts that official planning incorrectly assumes the public will panic and create a "secondary disaster."
"The civic infrastructure--comprised of the public's collective wisdom and capability to solve problems; voluntary associations (both virtual and face-to-face) that arise from shared interests or a public good; and social service organizations that look out for the well-being of various groups--is essential to managing a mass health emergency," the report says.
"US homeland security and health emergency policies, however, do not adequately reflect the civic infrastructure's proven contributions in catastrophes. Nor have most top officials yet realized the potential value for local and national communities--and for themselves--of preparing knowledgeable, trained networks of constituents who can mobilize in a crisis."
Apr 17, '07Sanofi has developed a new bird flu vaccine which has been approved by the FDA for the national stockpile. How effective is it, and who will be eligible to receive it?
Some additional questions to consider.
Apr 18, '07The Council on Foreign Relations held a live webcast last week on pandemic influenza.
The video made from that webcast is available now and is well worth your time:
Is the Bird Flu Threat Still Real, and Are We Prepared?
Apr 19, '07Scottsdale, Az is one community involved in pandemic planning. Here is a link to an article addressing many of their concerns, and not all have been resolved. Virtually all communities will be dealing with the same issues:
Here is a video about their emergency pandemic preparedness system. I found the comments about the the Canadian HCW, and how many of them left healthcare in the aftermath of SARS to be very disturbing. What could have made a difference for them, and should we not be thinking about this before something happens?:
Apr 19, '07Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI)
Quote from afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/04/npi-long-and-short-of-it.The choice, it seems, is between a short pandemic wave, where we see a lot of infections (and deaths) over a relatively short time span, or a longer wave, with fewer weekly infections.
The total number of infections, and deaths, may not differ much in the end. But the impact on society, and the demands on services would be lower with a longer, less steep infection curve.
Apr 19, '07Director of Dept of Health in Hawaii is personally prepared.
Quote from http://www.midweek.com/content/story/midweek_coverstory/preparing_for_the_next_pandemic/No cavalry coming in for anybody anywhere.Preparing now will help soften the blow, the experts say. And that doesn't just mean state agencies and businesses - that means you because the system may be too swamped to respond when you call 911 or need to get into the emergency room.
"In America we believe the healthcare system is accountable for every life and death," Fukino says. "In a pandemic, all dibs are off. The rules change.
"We need to be able to care for ourselves for a long enough period of time so we can muster our forces, otherwise we are in deep kimchee. We are sitting in the middle of the ocean; there is no cavalry coming in from the neighboring states."
Apr 20, '07WHO: Avian Flu Treatment Protocols
To have the most up to date information on what works, and what does not, physicians who have dealt with H5N1 are sharing data. Hopefully, we will all benefit from their collective experience:
Quote from www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/clinicalmeeting_19Apr_07.pdfDoubling the Tamiflu stockpile is being considered in the UK:Since the last meeting in Hanoi, May 2005, eight new countries have reported human infections with avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses. Clinicians, epidemiologists, virologists and public health specialists from the countries with human cases, and experts in pulmonary medicine, critical care, and influenza attended the meeting to share their experiences.
Quote from http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article1685400.eceIn terms of their Tamiflu Stockpile, the UK is far ahead of most countries, including the United States. They already have 15 million 10-pill courses, for a population of 60 million. That's enough, at the standard course, to treat 25% of their people.
The United States currently has enough to dispense to somewhat less than 10% of their citizens, and of course, many nations have very little at all. Complicating matters, there is doubt that a 10-pill course will prove adequate for treating the H5N1 virus.Last edit by indigo girl on Apr 20, '07
Apr 21, '07The Numbers Game
Different communities are using wildly divergent numbers in their pandemic planning. On the positive side, at least they HAVE a plan. But, is there some reason why they can not consider that the actual death rate in Indonesia is over 70%, and that their planning should reflect this?
I will never be able to understand this disconnected thinking. If you are going to plan, get it right. Think about the characteristics of the current contenders, and always plan for it to be worse than you could imagine. Try to give us a safety net if you can, and plan for more. Emergency planning is never a waste of time, but they need to consider that it really could be worse than in 1918.
One other thing, can you imagine yourself helping to triage hugh numbers of frightened flu patients in these auditoriums? Picture yourself in an N95 mask in goggles surrounded by a sea of people ill with a disease that will kill some of them, accompanied by their family members who may be distraught with worry. It is hard to think of this, isn't it? But, that is exactly what these types of exercises are planning for in different communities around the world.