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Swine Flu This Fall - Turbulence Ahead

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Here's the Reveres take on why it could be a very bad flu season. This is just a portion of their full explanation at the link below.

This started late in the flu season. We're not sure when, exactly, but probably in March sometime. Because there was no natural immunity in the population and in other respects the virus transmitted with the facility of seasonal flu, it could spread pretty fast and widely before whatever factors involved in flu's seasonal forcing lowered transmission to the point it started to subside. It's true it is not subsiding everywhere but it is subsiding in many places in the north. However it is not the fact it is subsiding but the reasons why it is subsiding that are important. If it is starting to wane because it had burned itself out by using up the susceptibles, that would suggest next year wouldn't be so bad. But in fact, while there was a lot of flu around, most people didn't get it. If it is subsiding it is probably because whatever is involved in the seasonal forcing of flu (and we don't really know what that is) has started to cut it short before the "tinder" of susceptibles was used up. Everyone expected this to happen when the summer came and the fact it didn't happen right away was a surprise. It suggests this virus is quite transmissible and combined with the lack of immunity could overcome the extra push to transmissibility the seasonal forcing gives it. But it looks to be subsiding now. When the forcing starts again in the fall all the makings will be there for an early and big flu season if the threshold for it is exceeded. I feel pretty confident there are plenty of susceptibles around for the virus. True, I don't know how many are needed because I don't know what the threshold is. But I'm betting it's not too high. Meanwhile the vaccine won't be available to decrease the susceptibles before the virus can pick up a head of steam.

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/08/swine_flu_this_fall_turbulence.php

The Editors of Effect Measure are senior public health scientists and practitioners. Paul Revere was a member of the first local Board of Health in the United States (Boston, 1799). The Editors sign their posts "Revere" to recognize the public service of a professional forerunner better known for other things.

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