Swine Flu may infect 40% of US population over next 12 months.

[oramar]

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/158811.php

[classicdame, MSN, EdD]

Am reading John Barry's book on the great influenza of 1918 (do not recall exact title, sorry). This book is so informative about what to expect this winter.

[Girl Scout]

24 months, but it's still 5,000,000 a month, or 167,000 a day. Which is probably why they used the figure of 40%. Less scary.

[oramar]

It depends a lot on how the infection is spread out. If it takes a year for 40% of the population to be exposed that is numerically a high number in any given month. However, that same number of infections spread out over 2 to 3 years is still a lot but the health care system is less likely to be overwhelmed.