"Scientists try to predict number of US Ebola cases"


This was an interesting read.


"STANFORD, Calif. (AP)-Top medical experts studying the spread of Ebola say the public should expect more cases to emerge in the United States by year's end as infected people arrive here from West Africa, including American doctors and nurses returning from the hot zone and people fleeing from the deadly disease.

But how many cases?

No one knows for sure how many infections will emerge in the U.S. or anywhere else, but scientists have made educated guesses based on data models that weigh hundreds of variables, including daily new infections in West Africa, airline traffic worldwide and transmission possibilities."

This week, several top infectious disease experts ran simulations for The Associated Press that predicted as few as one or two additional infections by the end of 2014 to a worst-case scenario of 130."

I will put on my HAZMAT suit & hope it will protect me from the media sensationalism likely to ensue.


26 Posts

Specializes in CNS Pediatric Surgery, now retired. Has 38+ years experience.

You know that the media will focus on the highest number, not the Northwestern University group that has been previously accurate and forecasts smaller numbers. Fear and hysteria means higher ratings.

The most likely scenario being clusters of cases in major cities, I'd like to know how they would handle quarantining the nurses and physicians who care for these patients. Whose going to take care of the patients when you have made trained staff stay in their homes?

edmia, BSN, RN

827 Posts

Specializes in Emergency, ICU. Has 10 years experience.

It's really sad and shocking how the media has all but forgotten about the thousands of cases in West Africa because the US has had to deal with 4!

The CDC has created a projection model on the impact in West Africa if real interventions by the international community do not go into full effect. These graphics should shock you -- not a few westerners being cared for with optimal staff and equipment.