Disaster/Pandemic preparedness

indigo girl · May 17, 2008

Research in Vietnam on Antibodies Countering H5N1

http://english.vietnamnet.vn/tech/2008/05/783461/

This sounds promising except for this rather startling detail:

The Vaccine and Biotechnology Company 1 is one of three agencies that is researching and developing H5N1 vaccine in Vietnam. The company uses cells from monkey kidneys in research, which makes it different from the two others.
According to US experts, the World Health Organisation (WHO) worries about the safety of vaccines that are produced from living cells such as the cells of monkey or dog kidneys because these living cells may contain viruses that man doesn't know about yet and germs that can infect humans. To be sure that living cells are suitable for producing vaccines, they must be tested very carefully, which can make vaccine costs very high. They have urged Vietnam to be careful in the current period of testing on humans.

(hat tip fluwiki)

indigo girl · May 17, 2008

Launch of WHO H5N1 vaccine stockpile still awaited

Do you think that countries possessing a vaccine for H5N1 will release

it to other countries during a pandemic when they don't have enough

for their own citizens?

Even if the vaccines are available, how long does it take before the

protection occurs? Many people that are vaccinated too late against seasonal

flu, still get infected. Trying to vaccinate the people after pandemic starts is

not an optimal solution, but may protect some. Storing the stockpile in the

people is not possible since the stockpile does not exist yet, but it may be the

best solution.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/virtual-promises.html

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu//cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/may1608

vaccine.html

"At this time, a physical WHO stockpile of H5N1 vaccine does not exist,
and its development will depend on several factors, including discussions
with manufacturers on the terms and conditions of their donation, as well as
on technical issues such as obtaining further information on the stability of
vaccines," says the report, which is based on a scientific meeting held in
Geneva in October 2007.
The 26-page report assesses the development of H5N1 vaccines to date and
discusses their possible uses, including how the planned WHO stockpile would
be used. The document is titled "Options for the Use of Human H5N1 Influenza
Vaccines and the WHO H5N1 Vaccine Stockpile."
In 3 more years, the report says, the stockpile could contain 50 million doses,
or enough to vaccinate 25 million people with two doses each, which is likely to
be needed to generate a good immune response.
The WHO says the contemplated uses of the stockpile are (1) to help contain
the initial, localized emergence of a potential H5N1 pandemic if the event is
identified early enough and (2) to supply vaccine to countries that otherwise
would have little access to it once sustained human-to-human transmission
is under way.
For several reasons, vaccination alone would probably not be enough to
contain a local outbreak of an emerging pandemic virus, the report says.
However, "mathematical modeling approaches suggest that under certain
conditions, vaccination could make a significant addition to the effects of other
control actions."
In addition to GSK, companies that have expressed a willingness to contribute
to the stockpile include Omninvest of Hungary, Baxter, and Sanofi Pasteur, the document says.
The report says that at least 16 companies have H5N1 vaccines in "relatively
advanced development." Studies on the vaccines so far suggest that they
should be safe and effective, but their effectiveness can be confirmed only by
trials in which people are exposed to H5N1 either experimentally or in an
outbreak, the WHO states.

indigo girl · May 18, 2008

Bringing Back the Victory Garden

I love this idea. I miss the modest little garden that I had in Rhode Island

now that I am living in a Florida condo despite my beautiful lakeside view.

Lots of useful advice here. Help yourself. It never hurts to prepare for

whatever Mother Nature might dish out...

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/bringing-back-victory-garden.html

Should a pandemic strike, it could conceivably go on for a year, perhaps longer. During that time there could be huge disruptions in the production and delivery of food. Our supplies chains are thought to be very fragile, and so food shortages are almost inevitable.
Here is what the Health and Human Services website has to say about disruptions and shortages:
"Stock a supply of water and food. During a pandemic you may not be able to get to a store. Even if you can get to a store, it may be out of supplies.
Public waterworks services may also be interrupted. Stocking supplies can be useful in other types of emergencies, such as power outages and disasters."

indigo girl · May 20, 2008

The Over-The-Hill-Gang

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/over-hill-gang.html

He is so right about this. There will be a tremendous need for volunteers,

and not just for HCW.

People in their 50's, are a good choice, but anyone older that has something

to offer should do so. We have a greater chance of surviving should we

become infected. And, most of us are not still raising young children...

Pandemic flu in general, and bird flu in particular, likes younger people. As this chart shows, 90% of all recorded cases of bird flu, and the highest mortality rates, appear in those under the age of 40.

indigo girl · May 21, 2008

Prepandrix prepares EU for bird flu

http://tinyurl.com/3vnb8c

I found this article to be somewhat confusing.

...first vaccine to be approved for use in the EU. Switzerland has already ordered 8 million doses - sufficient to cover its entire population - and the US has ordered 27.5 million.
Prepandrix is based on the Vietnam strain and been found to be effective in preventing death in 96% of cases.

96% of whose deaths? Mice?

Then, they made this claim:

"For the first time the authorities are approving a prepandemic vaccine. We have demonstrated that even if the H5N1 virus drifts to a different strain it is still effective."

But in the next paragraph, is this:

If a future pandemic influenza virus has mutated too far away from the H5N1 strain, GSK's vaccine will not be effective and a new vaccine will have to be made.

So if the virus drifts to a different strain, it is still effective, but if it mutates

too far away, it isn't. This makes no sense to me. Maybe the article is just

poorly written.

indigo girl · May 25, 2008

Submitted For Your Viewing Discomfort

I concur. These are excellent choices.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/submitted-for-your-viewing-discomfort.html

...I've put together another list of pandemic/bird flu related videos freely available on the Internet. All of these are from respected sources, and they contain a wealth of information.
These videos sometimes disappear from the web, so watch them while you can.
BUSINESS NOT AS USUAL - Prepared by Public Health Seattle and King County (leaders in pandemic awareness and preparation in the US), this 20 minute video is a free download from the Internet or is available as a free DVD. If you watch just one video . . . make it this one.

indigo girl · May 26, 2008

Get Pandemic Ready: Why Three Months? Part 1

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/get-pandemic-ready-why-three-months-pt.html

One of the big debates over preparedness is over how much food, water, medicine and essential supplies would be prudent for each family stockpile?
In a severe pandemic, according to the CDC, all family members in the household will be asked to stay at home and avoid going to work or the store if a family member is sick, for at least 7 days after the last person started showing symptoms. If a family is large, everyone may be staying home for quite some time until it is clear that no one could still be contagious. A long absence from work may result in a loss of income.

Get Pandemic Ready: Why Three Months Part 2

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/get-pandemic-ready-why-three-months-pt_26.html

Our lives are supported by critical complex systems: health care, electricity, water, sewer, etc. These are the complex systems we take for granted; however they can break down quickly if people are not there to run them. When workers (or their families) get pandemic flu, the critical infrastructure may degrade or fail...
A degraded or failed infrastructure has grave implications, affecting both our personal welfare and the economy. They are inseparable - both need to be healthy for us to get through a flu pandemic
Add to this the "just-in-time" business model adopted universally over the last decades. Supplies are not kept on-site, but rather ordered "just-in-time" from regional warehouses. Consequently, your grocery store has approximately three days of cornflakes on the shelves. The former warehouse is now on wheels.

indigo girl · May 27, 2008

The Crisis of Complacency

http://hstoday.us/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3531&Itemid=149

...governments at all levels remain unprepared for dealing with catastrophic and mass casualty events. Globally, many more governments are even less prepared for such disasters.
HSToday.us revealed in a two-part series that federal and state governments aren’t paying nearly enough attention to the steady deterioration of emergency medical care across the nation – the very medical care that will be needed in the event of a mass casualty catastrophe.
But if governments are lax in their preparedness, and equally as remiss in stressing the imperative that citizens be prepared, how can the citizenry be expected to be geared up?
It should be no surprise then that preparedness authorities are increasingly alarmed about the publics’ across the board complacency toward preparedness, not just for catastrophic disasters, but even the most common of disasters - like hurricanes in the south.
“This creeping complacency, as many of us call it, among the public at large is quite disturbing,” said a senior federal emergency preparedness official HSToday.us frequently consults.
No doubt. Studies have shown that less than one-third of all Americans have not taken special steps to prepare for an emergency. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported that “Americans are too busy, too distracted, or too frightened to plan carefully for a natural disaster, disease outbreak, or local catastrophe.”

hat tip Monotreme/pfi

indigo girl · May 30, 2008

Health and Human Services's Next Webcast June 4th on Pandemic Issues

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/hhs-next-webcast-on-june-4th.html

Why do you suppose HHS is going thru the trouble of producing these programs?

Would you ever imagine the need to schedule a program on home care?

... since March of this year the HHS has been producing a series of Webcasts on preparing for an influenza pandemic.
Next week, a new program will air, dealing with workplace issues during a pandemic. Your input prior to this Webcast is being solicited by the HHS...
In July, a program on home care during a pandemic is scheduled.
These programs generally run a bit over an hour, and are well worth your time.

indigo girl · May 30, 2008

Pandemics And School Closures

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/05/pandemics-and-school-closures.html

A survey of North Carolina families affected by a 10-day school closure due to a sharp rise in influenza-related absences found that the measure didn't cause families major hardships, but many did not heed a recommendation to avoid large gatherings.
The findings by researchers at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services were published yesterday as an early online article in Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID).

There are concerns that closing the schools would force working parents to stay home with their kids, that kids that depend on the school lunch program will go without proper nutrition, and that kids will congregate in other places, negating the beneficial effects of school closures.
Valid arguments, all.
But when weighed against the potential loss of thousands (perhaps tens or even hundreds of thousands) of children's lives, they do seem to lose much of their persuasiveness.
There are 80 million children in the United States under the age of 20, and past pandemics have shown that the young are often more grievously affected by novel viruses. The potential for disaster here is too great to ignore.

indigo girl · Jun 2, 2008

Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA)

http://www.hhs.gov/aspr/opsp/pahpa/index.html

On December 2006, Congress passed and the President signed the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA), Public Law No. 109-417, which has broad implications for the Department of Health and Human Service's (HHS) preparedness and response activities. The Act established within the Department a new Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR); provided new authorities for a number of programs, including the advanced development and acquisitions of medical countermeasures; and called for the establishment of a quadrennial National Heath Security Strategy.
The purpose of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act is "to improve the Nation's public health and medical preparedness and response capabilities for emergencies, whether deliberate, accidental, or natural."

indigo girl · Jun 2, 2008

Commentary: Pandemic flu vaccine program needs help

http://federaltimes.com/index.php?S=3555398

The same issue keeps appearing with all aspects of pandemic planning,

namely the lack of transparency from those that we should hold most

accountable. Even the Federal Times is commenting on it though only on

this one aspect of a much bigger problem.

People need to have faith in their leaders particularly during emergencies.

Trust once lost is seldom regained. It will have to be earned, and that can

only happen if TPTB wake up enough to realize that it is gone.

A government document-never released-presents a troubling picture of a
vaccine shortage during an influenza pandemic: Overall, about 2 percent of
Americans with influenza illness die. Hospitals are overwhelmed. People riot at
some vaccination clinics as they are turned away or supplies run out.
Trucks transporting vaccine are hijacked. Public anxiety heightens mistrust of
government. Mortuaries and funeral homes are overwhelmed. The majority of
people still have not been vaccinated when a second wave of influenza begins.
The document was never released to the public as originally planned. Its
portrayal of public chaos and a heightened mistrust of government is a reminder
of past blunders-and this may have hit too close to home.
The government has announced its plans, and they are not reassuring. The
official word is that it will be several years before government-funded
vaccine manufacturers are fully ready to produce vaccine. Even then, there
won't be enough vaccine for everyone until six months after the start of a
pandemic.
The government's pandemic flu vaccine program is a fairly good one, with
scientists who are among the best in vaccine research and production. But
the program has an obvious and easily corrected weakness: lack of
transparency.

(hat tip Avian Flu Diary)