From John Barry: The Next Pandemic

indigo girl · Jul 8, 2010

Well worth reading, Barry points out that politics frequently gets in the way when it comes to disease outbreaks. We have seen this happen over and over again. We well remember that China hid the truth about SARS & Indonesia still continues to withhold information about the bird flu cases occurring there. Unfortunately, infectious diseases do not respect national borders. The lack of transparency and cooperation may do us all in at some future event if we don't learn from the past.

Policy for the next pandemic is being set, and it is based on the analysis of sui generis data.
The world needs to learn the right political lessons, too, and so far it has shown no sign of doing so. Instead, a scapegoat is being groomed. The WHO has come under intense attack for de- claring a pandemic at all, and critics have even charged the pharmaceutical industry with influencing the decision. This is nonsense. The spring of 1918 saw a mild initial flu much like 2009—so mild, in fact, that the British Grand Fleet patrolling Europe’s coast had 10,313 sailors sick enough to miss duty during war, but only four died. Yet several months later, Armageddon arrived. Aware of that history, the WHO was all but compelled to act as it did. If the current criticism of the WHO makes it more cautious in the future, the world will become a more dangerous place.
The world needs transparency about disease. Mexico, where H1N1 first appeared in humans, told the truth, and for this it was roundly pun- ished. Since there was no possibility of contain- ing the virus, WHO and FAO explicitly recom- mended against trade or travel restrictions. Yet at least 25 countries limited trade with or travel to Mexico. France demanded that the EU sus- pend all flights there, and although that did not happen, the EU and the U.S. government rec- ommended canceling non-essential travel to Mexico—although the U.S. soon had more cases of H1N1. The World Bank estimated that this mild pandemic cost the Mexican economy 0.7 percent of GDP. Such political reaction makes the world less safe, since it makes countries less likely to tell the truth for fear of the repercussions.
Even more disturbing, a host of nations re- vealed themselves as determinedly and self-de- structively committed to their individual politi- cal interests. It should surprise no one that the United States promised last September to give some vaccine to countries without any, then retracted the promise when production lagged, saying it first had to protect its own vulnerable population. But breaking a commitment sets a dangerous precedent—the United States imports almost 70 percent of its vaccine. In a se- vere pandemic, political leaders of an exporting country could refuse to allow their manufacturers to ship supplies to the United States until its own population is protected, and cite this U.S. precedent.

(hat tip crofsblog)