Pandemic News/Awareness.

indigo girl · Apr 12, 2007

CIDRAP update on avian influenza. Not for the casual reader but if you

want a good overall update this is it.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/biofacts/avflu_human.html

indigo girl · Apr 13, 2007

Pakistani farm workers are evading testing for H5N1. Unfortunately, it is not just about them. Here is a clear cut case of where world health could be impacted.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/04/pakistan-workers-evade-bird-flu-tests.html

KARACHI, April 12: Health officials have so far not tested the workers of the three poultry farms in the city, where, according to farmers’ association, about 67,000 birds died or were culled in the wake of avian flu (H5N1) virus outbreak in the last fortnight.
Sources among the stakeholders said the health authorities were concerned about human health but the farmers, who concealed the outbreak, and blocked access to the workers are not cooperating.
It is suspected 14 to 18 workers were in contact with the infected birds. The Pakistan Poultry Association representatives are also reluctant to reveal the names of the infected farms and their owners, while the livestock department officials are also keeping quiet, said a health department official.
“It is disturbing to note that the outbreak (reportedly occurred in the first week of April) was deliberately concealed by the poultry farmers and poultry association and the report eaked through the media. This is alarming and could pose a serious danger to public health,” the EDO remarked. He asked the officials to provide all details.

indigo girl · Apr 14, 2007

Bird Flu information site from the Online NewsHour:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/indepth_coverage/health/birdflu/map_flash.html

(hat tip Crofsblog)

indigo girl · Apr 15, 2007

CNN interview on 13 Apr 2007 with Dr. Margaret Chan, Director General of the WHO:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/04/13/talkasia.chan.script/index.html?eref=rss_latest

(hat tip fluwiki)

AR: There are so many health concerns at the moment, and of course bird flu is a very, very serious one of them, and its potential of course to become pandemic. How close do you think we are to that happening?
MC: Well, everybody would like to know the answer to your question, and you know, I've been talking to scientists, I've been talking to my technical experts. I don't believe scientists or technical experts have an answer to this question. The timing to the next pandemic is unpredictable, and whether the next pandemic is going to be severe or mild and which avian influenza would cause the outbreak again... These are questions we don't have answers to at this point in time, but it is interesting, though I mean in the last two to three years we are getting signals and warnings from nature, so to speak. We are seeing an unprecedented spread of avian influenza outbreak. It has moved outside South East Asia focus and it has spread to the Middle East, it has spread to Europe and to Africa. Now we have never seen anything quite like it. So given the situation, it is our duty in the WHO to advise countries to prepare for the pandemic.

indigo girl · Apr 16, 2007

No surprise that China is still witholding information that is needed by the rest of the world community.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/04/china-still-refuses-to-share-virus.html

China has not shared human H5N1 virus samples since early 2006, the World Health Organization has confirmed.
"We would still like to be able to get those viruses, as we would like to be able to get all viruses from H5 cases in a timely way so that they can be compared together," Dr. Keiji Fukuda, head of the WHO's global influenza program, said in an interview from Geneva.

No samples since 2006? No worries, mate.

indigo girl · Apr 16, 2007

UN FAO Team called in to assist Bangladesh in halting the spread of avian flu:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=76442&postcount=1

The H5N1 bird flu virus has been spreading in poultry flocks in Bangladesh ever since it was first detected on six of the country's farms on March 22 and despite culling and banning of the movement of chickens in areas with confirmed outbreaks.
The 10-member FAO team arrived in Dhaka over the weekend and will visit affected farms and laboratories and interview farmers and government specialists over the next two weeks.
"This mission is to make an assessment and come up with solid recommendations on what are the best ways to contain it, get it stamped out... (so) it will not further spread," Ad Spigkers, FAO representative in Bangladesh, told Reuters by telephone.
The Bangladesh government said on Monday that bird flu had spread to two more farms -- one of them in western Jessore district adjacent to the West Bengal state of India, where bird flu has been identified.
Bangladesh also shares a border with Myanmar, which is fighting the disease. But no one knows for sure how the disease jumped to Bangladesh this March.
"There is a lot of work (to be done), every country has its special conditions. It's (Bangladesh) a densely populated country, many chickens, many ducks."
Since the detection of the H5N1 virus on March 22, 79,000 chickens have been culled on 32 farms in eight districts.

A letter to the editor of a Bangladesh newspaper:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/04/a_letter_to_the.html

indigo girl · Apr 16, 2007

Businesses across the globe have pandemic flu plans because, well, a serious pandemic would effect their business. Most of the big companies here in the U.S. also have done their preparation and planning.

This is an interesting site from an insurance company with good links to graphs and predictive information from some economic think tanks and the US Congressional Budget Office. Their figures vary. But, obviously a great deal of thought has gone into what the impact would be on the world and national economies :

http://www.munichre.com/en/ts/life_and_health/pandemic/default.aspx

...the pandemic issue has almost completely disappeared from the headlines – in spite of the fact that no official all-clear has ever been given.
The alert level on the six-point scale published by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still at three; and the incidence of H5N1 infections has even increased. This shows that the media not only influence the risk debate but also shape risk perception. And the public’s current lack of interest in bird flu is no indication of the true peril.
In spite of the momentary calm, experts are convinced that a new pandemic is on the cards. The question is only when it will come and how extensive it will be. There is also a consensus that if the H5N1 virus mutates, bird flu – a disease hitherto restricted to animals – will be capable of triggering a wave of influenza around the globe. If a new variant develops against which humans have not built up an immune defence system, the disease can only be stopped from spreading locally by short-term epidemic control measures.

(hat tip croftsblogs)

indigo girl · Apr 17, 2007

A picture is worth a thousand words, and this picture is that of full protective gear being worn as hospital employees move the body of a suspected bird flu fatality.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/04/picture-is-worth-thousand-words.html

indigo girl · Apr 18, 2007

Bangladesh

Bird Flu Marks a Turn for the Worse

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=76634&postcount=3

THIS, no doubt, marks a turn for the worse in the spread of bird flu in the country. Ever since the first detection of bird flu in some poultry farms at Savar, near Dhaka, two months ago, it was hoped that tough measures like culling of the poultry birds in these farms and quarantining the farms, would lead to a solution and the disease would not spread. But bird flu was subsequently detected in several places since then in Bangladesh at several places far away from Savar and located in different areas. Thus, there is no way to take satisfaction that it was limited to Savar only. Now, the news of the infection spreading to local species of poultry birds adds another dangerous dimension.
The infection of local poultries is far more difficult to contain by culling because these have been traditionally reared around homesteads naturally by people. The local poultry birds roam around freely and are not bred or restricted in their movements systematically like in poultry farms where the movements of the birds, their number, monitoring them for detection of diseases, etc., are easier tasks. Thus, there is every likelihood that the spread of the disease among the local poultry birds will give rise to much greater difficulties in detecting and containing them for culling.

indigo girl · Apr 18, 2007

India thinks that the surrounding countries are a threat from avian flu. They think that India is the problem.

Hello! It's a conundrum. Wild migratory birds, and humans moving poultry are probably the two main ways that bird flu is being spread at this time.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=76646&postcount=9

indigo girl · Apr 18, 2007

Kuwait

There are so many ways for H5N1 to spread. Migratory birds, poultry smuggling and now this, illegally importing birds of prey. Who is responsible? People, who don't realize that their personal actions effect everyone else on the planet.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=76581&postcount=1

Falcons illegally imported into Kuwait may have been the cause of an outbreak of bird flu that has forced authorities to cull about two million chickens, MPs charged on Tuesday.
During a special debate, a number of lawmakers submitted official documents showing that several falcon shipments for royals and influential people were imported without the strict quarantine procedures.
The head of the government's agriculture authority, Jassem al-Bader, denied the allegations, insisting that all the imported falcons were properly tested and found healthy.
But he admitted that a total ban on bird imports imposed in 2005 following the discovery of the first bird flu case in Kuwait was eased in July 2006 to allow the import of falcons.
Bader said that the last falcon shipment allowed was in late 2006.
"Lifting the ban on falcons was a catastrophe. Why were they exempted from the ban despite warnings by doctors?" countered Islamist MP Jamaan al-Harbash.
Opposition MP Mussallam al-Barrak charged that some of the major imports belonged to senior members of the ruling Al-Sabah family, while several other lawmakers demanded a parliamentary probe.

indigo girl · Apr 18, 2007

The Genealogy of H5N1

Scientific studies are not so easy to read, and can be even harder to understand. This research is telling us where H5N1 came from, what it has been doing, and about an important change that has occurred.

We are watching the transformation of this virus as it morphs from an avian virus into more of a mammalian virus. The acquisition of SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) pronounced “snip” that make this virus more adaptive to mammalian physiology is very much a cause for concern. A polymorphism is a difference between two or more viral sequences. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is one change.

Specific to this study, E627K was rarely found in birds before. It is a mammalian SNP that allows the virus to exist at the lower body temperature of mammals. Birds have a higher body temp. This SNP is now found in virtually all of the virus west of China. This is not really news since Dr. Niman of Recombinomics has been saying this for some time now, but it is interesting to hear it from additional sources.

The following SNP's and others, are NOT mentioned in this study, but they also have been found as per Dr. Niman. This is what they mean.

M230I is found in all human seasonal influenzas. It was also found in one of the fatal cases in Egypt last season. This is alarming. Why? Because it allows the virus to be transmitted more easily to humans as seasonal flu is very transmissible. It also offers a selective advantage for infecting human cells.

H274Y allows for drug resistance to neuraminidase antivirals. This occurred in Vietnam.

N274S also is associated with neuraminidase resistance as in the Tamiflu resistant cases recently in Egypt and in Vietnam in 2005.

There are other changes that this virus is making, that are occurring simultaneously in widely separated parts of the planet. But, that's another story.

The final paragraph of this study contains this sentence. Please, think about what this means:

These findings show how whole-genome analysis of influenza (H5N1) viruses is instrumental to the better understanding of the evolution and epidemiology of this infection, which is now present in the 3 continents that contain most of the world's population.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22152

I have linked to flutrackers since they have provided the most complete

information on this study. It is very time consuming to make available this kind of documentation for those of us who choose to read it. I am very appreciative of those that do this work.