H5N1, Bird Flu Updates - page 3

Tracking Bird Flu Cases Bird flu deserves its own thread for tracking suspected and confirmed cases. It's not the pandemic virus, but it is still an ongoing and significant threat because of its virulence. As Margaret Chan,... Read More

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    Bird Flu Endemic in Three More Countries


    Quote from www.manilatimes.net

    Since 2003, outbreaks have been reported in poultry flocks in 60 countries in Asia, Europe and North
    Africa. The virus is now considered endemic in Egypt, Indonesia and Vietnam.

    “First, it places those in direct contact with birds—usually rural folk and farm workers—at risk of catching the often-fatal disease. Second, the virus could undergo a process of ‘reassortment’ with another influenza virus and produce a completely new strain,” the WHO said in a statement.

    Health experts do not count out the possibility that the bird flu virus may combine with the A(H1N1) virus, producing a deadlier and more contagious disease.
    (hat tip flutrackers/treyfish)

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    China: Zhong Nanshan On Viral Reassortment


    We owe a hugh debt to this man, Dr. Zhong. He is the guy who pressured the Chinese govt into closing down the "wild flavor" restaurants where the animal reservoirs of the SARS virus were being slaughtered and served. The practice of eating many different types of wild animals was a popular symbol of the increasing affluence of prosperous Chinese.

    As everyone knows, the govt of China denied the existence of this disease for several months, allowing the virus to be unleashed on the populations of other countries as well.

    Dr. Zhong is speaking out publicly again, this time about the cover up of the true number of cases of H1N1 in his country, and also of the danger of a possible co-infection of human hosts with H5N1 bird flu and H1N1 together.

    Quote from afludiary.blogspot.com
    Last week Zhong publicly questioned the official death toll from the H1N1 virus (see Zhong Nanshan On China’s Death Toll), which brought a response 24 hours later from the Health Ministry, promising to punish anyone caught hiding fatalities.

    Today, Reuters has a long and very informative article regarding his concerns over the possible reassortment of the pandemic H1N1 virus with H5N1 bird flu.

    Reassortment occurs when two compatible viruses infect the same host (human, pig, bird, etc.) at the same time, and swap genetic material. This can produce a hybrid virus, with parts of both viral donors.
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    This Doctor Zhong is a real 21st Century hero.
  4. 0
    Egypt: WHO Update On 89th H5N1 Infection


    Quote from afludiary.blogspot.com
    Although FluTrackers had word of an 89th confirmed human H5N1 infection out of Egypt a couple of days ago, the WHO has posted an official update today, along with a new table of cases by country.

    It should be noted that Indonesia stopped reporting H5N1 cases nearly a year ago, after a couple of years of less than stellar reporting.

    Numbers from other countries, where surveillance and reporting may be less than optimal, probably don’t reflect the true picture either.
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    According to the translators over at flutrackers, this man had eaten duck soup about 7 days prior to being admitted. The soup is made of raw duck's blood. These ducks can harbor bird flu without showing any s/s of it.

    Unfortunately, this is the time of year when we can expect to see more cases of H5N1. Occurring in the same region as the more transmissible swine flu, it is worrisome. Bird flu is endemic in Vietnam.

    Quote from crofsblogs.typepad.com
    Via Reuters: PRESS DIGEST - Vietnam newspapers - Dec 1. Excerpt:
    The Health Ministry confirmed the H5N1 virus has killed a 23-year-old man last month in the northern province of Dien Bien, the fifth fatality in Vietnam so far this year. Vietnam currently has no outbreaks among poultry, the Agriculture Ministry said.

    This link is saying it was duck blood pudding not soup. At any rate, the
    exposure to duck blood, is problematic. I wonder, did he slaughter the
    bird himself? Very risky with no PPE, and then to eat it raw...

    (hat tip pfi/monotreme)
    Last edit by indigo girl on Dec 1, '09
  6. 0
    Bird to Bird Transmission of H5N1 in Vietnam and Egypt

    No, bird flu has not disappeared except in our US news reports. It is still
    very much an issue.

    Quote from afludiary.blogspot.com
    With the first day of winter less than a week away in the northern hemisphere, and cooler weather already present in many places, we are beginning to see an upsurge in reports of B2B (bird to bird) H5N1 avian flu around the world.

    While hardly earth shattering news (we see this pattern every year), it is an important reminder that there are other flu viruses out there that deserve our attention.
    For an update go to: http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2009/1...and-egypt.html
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    Egypt: WHO Update on 90th Human H5N1 Case


    The disease began striking toddlers last year in Egypt, and surprisingly was mild. This recent case is an adult, and how much exposure to the virus she may have had might play a role in her outcome. Unfortunately, adult cases are frequently fatal in that country and elsewhere.

    Quote from www.who.int
    The Ministry of Health of Egypt has reported a new laboratory confirmed human case of avian influenza A(H5N1) on 19 December 2009.

    The case is a 21 year old female from the El Tanta District of Gharbia Governorate. She developed symptoms of fever and cough on 15 December 2009.

    She was admitted to Tanta Fever Hospital where she received oseltamivir treatment on the same day. She is in a stable condition. Investigation revealed that the case had close contact with dead poultry and was involved in slaughtering sick birds.
    (hat tip Avian Flu Diary)
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    indonesia: a bombshell from the minister of health


    Quote from crofsblogs.typepad.com
    since 1 january to 28 december 2009, a total 20 h5n1 cases reported in indonesia. of those confirmed cases, 19 have been fatal. first h5n1 case was reported from bogor on 9 january, and latest was reported from south jakarta on 23 september 2009.
    total cumulative number of h5n1 in indonesia since 2005 to 2009 is 161 with 134 deaths.
    this information is broadcasted by public communication center, general secretary ministry of health.

    this is more bird flu information from indonesia than we've received in over a year.
    as brief as it is, it has some important implications.

    the indonesian case fatality ratio is now 83 percent, slightly higher than the 81 percent before the news blackout. this indicates the health system isn't catching cases early, or isn't dealing with them effectively.

    Quote from www.cidrap.umn.edu
    indonesia's ministry of health, updating information on h5n1 avian influenza for the first time since january, quietly reported this week that the country has had 20 human cases so far this year, with 19 of them fatal—a 95% case-fatality rate (cfr).

    indonesia's then–health minister, siti supari, announced in june 2008 that the government would stop issuing prompt reports of new h5n1 cases and instead offer only periodic updates. the announcement raised concern about the world's ability to track the virus's evolution and impact.

    since the june 2008 announcement, indonesia has issued few official reports of h5n1 cases.

    the often deadly h5n1 virus has not yet gained the ability to spread easily from person to person, though it has circulated widely in birds for the past 6 years. disease experts still fear that it could gain transmissibility through mutation or by reassorting with another flu virus.
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    Quote from www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk
    The Cambodian veterinary authority has sent an Immediate Notification dated 28 December to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE).

    The report describes a new outbreak of HPAI in a village poultry flock of 1,216 birds in La-ak in the province of Kg. Cham, which is in the south-east of the country, near to the border with Viet Nam. The disease broke out on 16 December. In all, 143 birds died and the rest were destroyed.

    According to the report, the affected population were backyard poultry comprising 1,012 chickens and 204 ducks. Of the birds culled, 751 were chickens and 124 were ducks.

    The presence of the H5N1 sub-type of the virus has been confirmed.
    (hat tip pfi/monotreme)
  10. 1
    Human H5N1 cases in 2009

    For those interested in bird flu I have summarized the information on human cases in 2009.

    A General Discussion of Human H5N1 Cases in 2009

    H5N1 was widely expected to the first pandemic virus of the 21st century. The outbreak of the novel H1N1 in the North America in the early months of 2009 caught everyone by surprise. The pandemic spread of novel H1N1 across the globe captured the world’s attention throughout the year, while information and reports on H5N1 were back page news.

    Number of Human H5N1 Cases in 2009

    H5N1 avian influenza (“Bird Flu”) is an internationally reportable disease. Since 2003 until December 31, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported a total of 467 confirmed human cases of H5N1 (link). The cases associated with the initial human outbreak of H5N1 in Hong Kong in 1997 are not included in the official WHO totals (link).

    For 2009, the final tabulation for WHO confirmed H5N1 cases is 72 (link). Twenty of these 72 cases occurred throughout the year in Indonesia but were only reported by Indonesia on December 28th, and incorporated into the WHO statistics on December 30, 2009 (link).

    The number of H5N1 cases increased in 2009 relative to 2008. The number of H5N1 cases in 2009 is almost double the number of H5N1 cases reported in 2008 (See graph below). The number of H5N1 cases reached an all time annual high of 115 in 2006, but another doubling of human H5N1 infections in 2010 would exceed this previous annual high.

    In 2009, Egypt had the most confirmed cases with 39 reported to WHO. Indonesia is next with 20 reported cases followed by China, Vietnam, and Cambodia in descending order. All five of these countries had previously reported human H5N1 cases. No other countries reported human H5N1 infections in 2009.

    Demographics of H5N1 Victims in 2009

    For about 52 of the WHO confirmed cases demographic information is available in the Disease Outbreak News and translated news posts here at FluTrackers and elsewhere. There is no official information on the 20 reported cases from Indonesia, although internet flu trackers have posted numerous news articles throughout 2009 about human H5N1 infections and deaths in Indonesia. Among the 52 cases with reported statistics, 25 males (48%) and 27 (52%) females were infected. This suggests that in 2009 both males and females were about equally susceptible to H5N1 infection. Ages range from 1 to 57 years old for these cases, with a median age of 4. This low median age results from the 39 cases from Egypt. The age statistics from Egypt for human H5N1 infections in 2009 show an unusual trend. Thirty-one of the 39 human cases were children under 9 years of age. Even more striking is the fact the CFR among the 39 Egypt cases in 2009 was only .10.

    Case Fatality Ratio

    Based on WHO confirmed human cases, the overall case fatality ratio (CFR) to date is .60. As noted above for 2009 the CFR for Egypt was .10. This is lowest annual CFR number of any country since WHO started tracking H5N1 infections. The survival rate for confirmed H5N1 cases in 2009, at least for Egypt, increased compared to preceding years.
    . . .
    The remainder of the discussion and graphs are at this link: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=138276
    indigo girl likes this.

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