I traditionally have a thread heading to the election, here we go.

Get out the popcorn for this one.

Quote

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to formally announce next week he is running for president in 2024, NBC News reported Thursday, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

The governor's official entry into the Republican primary field will put him head-to-head with former President Donald Trump, the party's current frontrunner for the nomination. Trump has already spent months treating DeSantis as his primary campaign rival, thrashing him with torrents of criticism over his gubernatorial record, his political skills and his personality.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/18/desantis-plans-to-officially-announce-presidential-run-next-week.html

subee said:

So?  The election is over after the voting.  Why grind out useless predictions that have proven in the past to be wrong.  We all will just have to wait.  No poll is going to change anything.

I more interested in what people think, not necessarily to use as any prediction on how the election will go.

And, polling does change things.   Such as the border was secure and their was no crisis fir three years, in the eyes of Democrats.  Now it's not secure and it us a crisis.   What changed their minds?  Polls.

Beerman said:

I can understand how someone who only pays attention cherry-picked clips of Trump would feel that way.

Is the Bronx MAGA country?  Seems like a pretty enthusiastic crowd.  Good remarks for the most part, without teleprompter, for over an hour, by a late 70's aged man on a warm humid day.

 

The Bronx isn't Trump territory so to speak, but it was convenient while he was stuck in a NYC courtroom. I watched that speech when it happened.  Do you remember that Trump said that the Bronx crowd was something like 35,000 strong but the drone shots revealed a different perspective?  It was reminiscent of our introduction to Sean Spicer and the 2017 inauguration crowd size hilarity.  

What about that speech did you find most represented Trump's effort to campaign outside of MAGA? I thought his speech at the Libertarian Convention better represented an attempt to speak to a nonMAGA crowd.  

toomuchbaloney said:

The Bronx isn't Trump territory so to speak, but it was convenient while he was stuck in a NYC courtroom. I watched that speech when it happened.  Do you remember that Trump said that the Bronx crowd was something like 35,000 strong but the drone shots revealed a different perspective?  It was reminiscent of our introduction to Sean Spicer and the 2017 inauguration crowd size hilarity.  

What about that speech did you find most represented Trump's effort to campaign outside of MAGA? I thought his speech at the Libertarian Convention better represented an attempt to speak to a nonMAGA crowd.  

The Bronx is most definitely not Trump territory, apparently he won only 16% of the votes there last time and it's "one of the most Democrat areas in the state".  However, it is part of a major metropolitan area and he was heading to trial, so supporters would be drawn to him from the surrounding areas and afar.  I'm reading his camp said 25,000 and someone on the internet put up fake news that it was 35,000.  Both figures have been debunked.  But certainly wherever Trump goes there will be large crowds. 

It was Trump being Trump so in that respect it wasn't a bad speech.  His point that the immigrants coming to New York hurting African Americans and Hispanics the most is something I'll have to think about and dive deeper if I'm in the mood.

Edit.  I am finding some interesting information in my deeper dive.  I'm not finding anything specific to back up Trump's claim about New York, so not sure where he's getting that.  I'm not saying he's wrong, but he does tend to make things up as well.

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"The lasting effects of uncontrolled, mass immigration on Black Americans are plainly obvious and have been well-documented throughout our country's history,” he lamented in the March 2022 commentary. "So how can any Black politician in good conscience advocate for a more expansive immigration policy that would continue to do us harm?”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-mass-immigration-hurts-black-americans

Quote

Foreign-born workers made up 18.6% of the civilian labor force in 2023, up from 15.3% in 2006, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

While immigration poses some challenges, it's a net benefit to the U.S. economy, economists say.

Without foreign-born labor, the U.S. labor pool would shrink because of lower birth rates and an aging workforce, making it harder to finance programs such as Social Security.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/02/immigration-taking-pressure-off-the-job-market-us-economy-expert.html

toomuchbaloney said:

The Bronx isn't Trump territory so to speak, but it was convenient while he was stuck in a NYC courtroom. I watched that speech when it happened.  Do you remember that Trump said that the Bronx crowd was something like 35,000 strong but the drone shots revealed a different perspective?  It was reminiscent of our introduction to Sean Spicer and the 2017 inauguration crowd size hilarity.  

What about that speech did you find most represented Trump's effort to campaign outside of MAGA? I thought his speech at the Libertarian Convention better represented an attempt to speak to a nonMAGA crowd.  

Again. I ask...what crowd?  It was actually sad that Trump had nothing better to do than speak to his piddling group of people and lie about the size of the turnout....again.  Why doesn't anyone have a photo of this 35,000 crowd?  And the tiny group were all wearing the give-away red hats.  I doubt that anyone actually paid for the Chinese product!

subee said:

Again. I ask...what crowd?  It was actually sad that Trump had nothing better to do than speak to his piddling group of people and lie about the size of the turnout....again.  Why doesn't anyone have a photo of this 35,000 crowd?  And the tiny group were all wearing the give-away red hats.  I doubt that anyone actually paid for the Chinese product!

The low end estimates were 4000 to 7000.  Is that tiny?

A CNN reporter said most she talked to were locals.

Seems it was worthwhile.  It's a shame you think it's sad he has nothing better to do than spend time in that area that is low-income minorities.  

I'm sure Biden wouldn't have bothered.  He has to have Obama and A-list celebrities for anyone to show up where he appears.  And those are fundraisers.

Beerman said:

The low end estimates were 4000 to 7000.  Is that tiny?

That's a large crowd for sure.  CNN commented that it was a bigger crowd than Democrats would like to see.  I think it's a good move to campaign in Democrat strongholds.  

Any comment on why his spokesperson Steven Cheung sent out emails that it was 25,000?

 

Beerman said:

The low end estimates were 4000 to 7000.  Is that tiny?

A CNN reporter said most she talked to were locals.

Seems it was worthwhile.  It's a shame you think it's sad he has nothing better to do than spend time in that area that is low-income minorities.  

I'm sure Biden wouldn't have bothered.  He has to have Obama and A-list celebrities for anyone to show up where he appears.  And those are fundraisers.

There's about 1.4 million people in The Bronx.  If a person can't judge the difference between 4,000 and 7,000 people,  what are they even doing in the business of counting people?  

subee said:

There's about 1.4 million people in The Bronx.  If a person can't judge the difference between 4,000 and 7,000 people,  what are they even doing in the business of counting people?  

And may I add that the out of town concept of The Bronx as all poor minorities just shows that you've never been there.  There are neighborhoods in There are expensive waterfront communities and a couple of beautiful college campuses.  Stop with the stereotyping.

Beerman said:

The low end estimates were 4000 to 7000.  Is that tiny?

A CNN reporter said most she talked to were locals.

Seems it was worthwhile.  It's a shame you think it's sad he has nothing better to do than spend time in that area that is low-income minorities.  

I'm sure Biden wouldn't have bothered.  He has to have Obama and A-list celebrities for anyone to show up where he appears.  And those are fundraisers.

But you know what?  Biden never rambled on  at a campaign event that he preferred electrocution (in an incredibly elaborate way) over being eaten by a shark.  He.reminded me of a patient of mine at Brooklyn State Hospital who was frightened of the messages that he received from the radiators on the unit.  In both cases, the delusions were fantastical.

subee said:

There's about 1.4 million people in The Bronx.  If a person can't judge the difference between 4,000 and 7,000 people,  what are they even doing in the business of counting people?  

The 4000 was CNN, I believe and I don't remember what media source said 7000.  Take it up with them.

Trump isn't in the people counting business.   By your logic we should give him a pass on his estimate. 

Tweety said:

That's a large crowd for sure.  CNN commented that it was a bigger crowd than Democrats would like to see.  I think it's a good move to campaign in Democrat strongholds.  

Any comment on why his spokesperson Steven Cheung sent out emails that it was 25,000?

 

IDK.  I suppose he was either exaggerating or is bad at estimating.  Do you have another explanation?

subee said:

And may I add that the out of town concept of The Bronx as all poor minorities just shows that you've never been there.  There are neighborhoods in There are expensive waterfront communities and a couple of beautiful college campuses.  Stop with the stereotyping.

More specifically, he was in South Bronx.  And, actually I've been to Yankee Stadium 3 times this April and May.   Perhaps you know that is also in South Bronx.  I did a fair amount of driving and walking in that area.

From my observation and the fact that South Bronx is 95% Hispanic and Black with a median household income of $32k, I'm comfortable with my statement that he was in "a area that is low-income minorities".