Pandemic Flu - Thread II - page 28

Frist calls for a Manhatten Project: We are so..., you know. He is telling it like it is. Does anyone really understand this? There is nothing that we can do but prepare, but no one is... Read More

  1. by   indigo girl
    Quote from Laidback Al
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...19&postcount=4

    Discussion of the most recent graph of human H5N1 clusters (above link). What this graph shows is that the number of human clusters of individuals infected with H5N1 is growing each year. There are not many data points (i.e. data from many years), but the data show the number of clusters may be starting to grow exponentially. The more cases and the more clusters, the greater the opportunity for the virus to change sufficiently to become easily transmissible.

    This graph, however, does NOT show that these clusters are a result of human to human (H2H) transmission. In fact most of the clusters are small, 2-3 individuals, and many could easily be infected from the same common non-human reservoir. Because these clusters have remained small (only few individuals), it is a good indication that H5N1 has not yet evolved into an easily transmissible virus.
    Thanks for the explanation, Al. The graphs are a great tool.
  2. by   indigo girl
    Research showing flies as vectors in the spread of H5N1. This is
    important information.
    (hat tip Flutrackers/AlaskaDenise)
    http://www.thejakartapost.com/detail...124.G01&irec=0
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Hungary:
    (hat tip croftsblogs)
    http://english.mti.hu/default.asp?me...&newsid=234018
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...Confirmed.html
    http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/dj...aebqLqWmdu2nZK
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Senators told US not scared enough about bird flu. Really?

    Maybe it's because people will only believe the truth if the government
    tells them to get serious about preparing. Telling them to stockpile
    food for 3 days or 2 weeks is not serious when the reality for each
    wave of infection could be 12 weeks or more.
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/01/us-citizens-not-concerned-enough-over.html
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Mixed messages from the FAO - Commentary - Effect Measure
    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...worry.php#more
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    H5N1 and Cats
    (hat tip flutrackers/niman)
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19325883.800
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 29, '07
  3. by   indigo girl
    US Citizens Not Concerned Enough:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...ough-over.html
    The Nigerian Paradox:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...n-paradox.html
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Succinct update on avian influenza from Science linked from Flutrakers
    followed by commentary from Dr. Niman:
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...71&postcount=1
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...Migration.html
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pandemic flu video made by a member of curevents.com
    - a decent job. This was redone after constructive criticism:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utQExEhel9k
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 29, '07
  4. by   indigo girl
    Another death in Indonesia, this time a six year old:
    http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2...rold_dies.html
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Suspected case, 14 years old in Azerbaijan:
    http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2...h5n1_case.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 25, '07
  5. by   Laidback Al
    A current but incomplete list of confirmed and suspected H5N1 human cases by country for the past several weeks.

    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=15591
  6. by   indigo girl
    Interesting link to an article on NAMRU3. I did not realize that they
    had been around so long:
    http://pfiforum.
    com/viewtopic.php?p=8417#8417


    Another link to an article on NAMRU3:
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=61359&postcount=
    1

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The H5N1 Crystal Ball Is Cloudy - Effect Measure
    http://scienceblogs.com/
    effectmeasure/2007/01/the_h5n1_crystal_ball_is_cloud.php#more
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 29, '07
  7. by   indigo girl
    Commentary on the release of the viral sequences
    of the recent fatalities in Indonesia and what this
    portends:
    http://www.recombinomics.
    com/News/01260701/H5N1_Indonesia_RBD.html


    Quote from [URL="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/
    01260701/H5N1_Indonesia_RBD.html"
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01260701/H5N1_Indonesia_RBD.html[/URL]
    ...the reports of a jump in suspect cases have been
    accompanied by a jump in confirmed cases. Four of the five confirmed H5N1 infections this month have been fatal.

    There has been concern about changes in or near the HA
    receptor binding domain. Recently a number of 2005
    and 2006 H5N1 bird sequences in China were made public.
    These sequences had a number of changes in or near the
    receptor binding domain.

    These changes have recently been appearing in human
    cases this season. In Egypt, the three sequences from
    patients in Gharbiya had M230I...

    Sequences from the four fatal cases in Indonesia...also
    have multiple changes near the receptor binding domain
    position 190. All four have D187N and A188E. These two
    changes have been seen in H5N1 birds in Shangxi and
    Hunan. The changes were also in the more recent 2006 sequences in Indonesia, A/Indonesia/CDC887/2006,
    A/Indonesia/CDC938/2006. The presence of both changes
    in all four isolates in 2007 raises the possibility that these
    changes are being fixed in Indonesia.

    Moreover, the three most recent 2007 isolates also have
    a third change, A189E. The latest acquisitions create a
    stretch of three consecutive changes at positions 187-189.

    The rapid acquisition of changes in or near the receptor
    binding domain in H5N1 isolates from human cases is
    cause for concern. All of the above cases have been fatal,
    and represents a jump in the number of cases in Egypt and Indonesia.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 29, '07
  8. by   indigo girl
    Quote from Laidback Al
    A current but incomplete
    list of confirmed and suspected H5N1 human cases by
    country for the past several weeks.

    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...t=<br /> 15591
    No let up in Indonesia:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/01/no-l
    etup-in-indonesia.html

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The situation in Indonesia is VERY serious. The US is donating
    PPE for the cullers. The Indonesian Army has been called out.
    Can you imagine that happening here? http://www.france24.com/france24Public/en/administration/afp-news.html?id=070126143804.l407brs7
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Indonesia-asks-troops-to-fight-
    bird-flu/2007/01/27/1169788724324.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 29, '07
  9. by   indigo girl
    WHO's flu chief leaves for Novartis:
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...95&postcount=1
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    This does not happen often, an avian flu patient recovers:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...goes-home.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 27, '07
  10. by   indigo girl
    More discussion on Tamiflu resistance in Egypt:
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01280701/H5N1_N294S_Frequency.html

    Quote from [URL="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01280701/H5N1_N294S_Frequency.
    html"
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01280701/H5N1_N294S_Frequency.html[/URL]
    The data from the Gharbiya cluster string suggests N294S is present in H5N1 circulating in Egypt.
    Sequencing of bird isolates in the region are necessary to determine the distribution of N294S in
    the region. However, the testing to date does not rule out the presence of N294S as a minor component
    in the patients, which is not readily apparent until the minor component emerges because of the selection
    pressure of the Tamiflu treatment.

    This issue can be most easily addressed by sequencing of samples collected several days after the start of
    Tamiflu treatment. In Egypt, all five of the confirmed patients this season have died, as have the last four
    cases from last season, although all patients have been treated with Tamiflu.
    So maybe they will consider treating with Amantadine? Or an antiviral cocktail?
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Indonesia and South Korea:
    http://www.iht.com/articles/
    ap/2007/01/21/asia/AS-GEN-Asia-Bird-Flu.php

    http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/
    L2844402.htm

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Azerbaijan, 14 year old dead:
    http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/
    L2844402.htm

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pandemic Flu Exercise in Britain:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com
    /2007/01/operation-winter-willow-part-one.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 30, '07
  11. by   CaLLaCoDe
    Good Sunday morning to you, Indigo Girl!

    I don't know what proves scarrier: the "if tyranny and oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy" quote or the avian bird flu pandemic! Thank you for all of this research you have provided. Must now get serious and look at this problem with big eyes and a sound mind!
  12. by   indigo girl
    Quote from TeleRNer
    Good Sunday morning to you, Indigo Girl!

    I don't know what proves scarrier: the "if tyranny and oppression come to this land, it
    will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy" quote or the avian bird flu pandemic!
    Thank you for all of this research you have provided. Must now get serious and look at
    this problem with big eyes and a sound mind!
    Welcome to the thread. You are a brave soul. I know how very difficult it is to be with
    this material. For support I would recommend going over to this link: http://www.<br /> flutrackers.com/fo...play.php?f=763
    http://www.flutrackers.com
    /forum/showthread.php?t=14101


    Just introduce yourself as an nurse newcomer. That thread was provided for HCW. Believe me all of the flu forums have nurses and docs on them as well as scientists and people from many walks of life, and each has a different focus. If you choose to learn more about this information, you will need support. You can ask questions, and those folks will provide very basic lifesaving information for you.

    Feel free to comment or question over here also at any time. If I do not know the answer, I will ask elsewhere. We have lots of resources and many dedicated people working for the common good. That is what it is all about, working for the common good.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Mar 4, '07
  13. by   indigo girl
    Commentary on the recent mortality in Azerbaijan:
    http://www.
    recombinomics.com/News/01280702/H5N1_Azerbaijan_Fatal.html

    Unfortunately, this is one disease where a negative result, even several negative results, does not
    mean that this boy did not die of avian flu. How can we forget that case that had several negative
    tests and two post mortems before a final diagnosis of avian flu was made? The answer is, that we
    can't. This case may never make the WHO's list of definitive dx of avian flu. The reality is that there
    are probably more positive cases than we think there are. This case fits the profile.

    Quote from [URL="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01280702/H5N1_Azerbaijan_Fatal.html"
    http://
    www.recombinomics.com/News/01280702/H5N1_Azerbaijan_Fatal.html[/URL]
    "According to information from the institute, the boy died today in the morning," Anar Kadyrly said. "Azeri
    specialists suspected he had bird flu, but three tests conducted in Baku showed he had acute pneumonia."

    The above comments describe the failure to detect H5N1 in three tests of a fatal pneumonia case, who was
    the brother of a fatal H5N1 case last year. Last year’s case was part of one of two cluster linked to feathers
    from wild birds.

    The death of a 14M with “acute pneumonia” strongly suggests that the negative test results this year were false.
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com
    /2007/01/azerbaijan-bird-flu-suspect-dies.html

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/01/open-
    and-closure.html

    http://afludiary.blogspot.com
    /2007/01/japan-third-outbreak-indentified-as.html

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Continuing education credit available on panflu education:
    (hat tip curevents.com/dryheat)
    http://www.nurse.com/ce/Syllabus.html?CCID=3833
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 30, '07

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