Swine flu raises fear of pandemic - Adults and Children - page 18

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  1. by   Multicollinearity
    ... mis-read
  2. by   oramar
    Quote from greenjungle
    The Spanish flu killed 40 million in th 1900s, the HK flu about a million a few decades back. With our current population, this would translate to a nightmare.
    I remember HK very well, have posted about it. Was a young LPN working then, plus a young mom. It made it's first pass in 1968. I didn't get it that time, even though I was working. It came roaring back in 1972, for some reason on this pass I caught it. Every one in my family got it plus my year and half old son. You can't imagine how sick it made people. Recovery took weeks if not months. That was a nasty virus, I can't imagine what the virus of early 20th century was like since they say it was worse.
  3. by   indigo girl
    Where Will the Swine Flu Go Next?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/opinion/28barry.html

    Here is an opinion piece from John Barry, the author of "The Great Influenza". Even though he is not a virologist, he is very knowledgeable about pandemics, and is often asked to speak along with epidemeologists, and experts on influenza. He has obviously spent much time with the subject.

    I think that he may well be correct. A vaccine will be necessary.

    Quote from www.nytimes.com

    AS the swine flu threatens to become the next pandemic, the biggest questions are whether its transmission from human to human will be sustained and, if so, how virulent it might become. But even if this virus were to peter out soon, there is a strong possibility it would only go underground, quietly continuing to infect some people while becoming better adapted to humans, and then explode around the world.

    Mutability makes even existing, well-known flu viruses unpredictable. A new virus, formed by a combination of several existing ones as this virus is, is even less predictable. After jumping to a new host, influenza can become more or less virulent-in fact, different offshoots could go in opposite directions-before a relatively stable new virus emerges.

    What's important to keep in mind in assessing the threat of the current outbreak is that all four of the well-known pandemics seem to have come in waves. The 1918 virus surfaced by March and set in motion a spring and summer wave that hit some communities and skipped others. This first wave was extremely mild, more so even than ordinary influenza: of the 10,313 sailors in the British Grand Fleet who became ill, for example, only four died. But autumn brought a second, more lethal wave, which was followed by a less severe third wave in early 1919.

    The first wave in 1918 was relatively mild, many experts speculate, because the virus had not fully adapted to humans. And as it did adapt, it also became more lethal. However, there is very good evidence that people who were exposed during the first wave developed immunity-much as people get protection from a modern vaccine.

    A similar kind of immune-building process is the most likely explanation for why, in 1918, only 2 percent of those who contracted the flu died. Having been exposed to other influenza viruses, most people had built up some protection. People in isolated regions, including American Indian reservations and Alaskan Inuit villages, had much higher case mortality-presumably because they had less exposure to influenza viruses.

    In all four instances, the gap between the time the virus was first recognized and a second, more dangerous wave swelled was about six months. It will take a minimum of four months to produce vaccine in any volume, possibly longer, and much longer than that to produce enough vaccine to protect most Americans. The race has begun.
  4. by   indigo girl
    Why Don't We Do It in Our Sleeves?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wju7F5ytk6M

    This little video is making the rounds again. It's cute, effective, and good to show your kids.
  5. by   Multicollinearity
    Indigo,

    What have you read about pandemic flu/cytokine storm, and the use of steroids?
  6. by   indigo girl
    That's a good question. Mostly that steroids do not work for cytokine storm. Now you can check this link for why that is so with my apologies for having to plow thru a research study. Just skim the study and go to the comments. There are some very interesting suggestions by the posters. They are talking about the cytokine storm in the context H5N1, avian influenza, but this is probably what is happening to some of the 20 to 40 year old patients in Mexico also.

    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur..._revisited.php

    For anyone who does not understand what cytokine storm is, the Reveres tell the story of a drug trial that put volunteers into that
    state. They describe what happens to the body in cytokine storm.

    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...out_cytoki.php
  7. by   Multicollinearity
    Quote from indigo girl
    That's a good question. Mostly that steroids do not work for cytokine storm. Now you can check this link for why that is so with my apologies for having to plow thru a research study. Just skim the study and go to the comments. There are some very interesting suggestions by the posters. They are talking about the cytokine storm in the context H5N1, avian influenza, but this is probably what is happening to some of the 20 to 40 year old patients in Mexico also.

    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur..._revisited.php

    For anyone who does not understand what cytokine storm is, the Reveres tell the story of a drug trial that put volunteers into that
    state. They describe what happens to the body in cytokine storm.

    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...out_cytoki.php
    Very interesting! Thank you.
  8. by   Multicollinearity
    http://jmm.sgmjournals.org/cgi/content/full/56/7/875
    There appears to be weak evidence of both a theoretical and experimental nature that suggests steroids might have a role to play as an adjunctive therapy to antiviral agents. Although this should advocate a randomized controlled trial of corticosteroids, such a design is difficult to execute in practice, and is unlikely to be realized in the near future. Therefore, there are two choices: refrain from using steroids in avian influenza cases, or attempt to use steroids in a rational, meaningful way.
    I'm saving my bottle of prednisone...
  9. by   indigo girl
    Quote from multicollinearity
    http://jmm.sgmjournals.org/cgi/content/full/56/7/875


    I'm saving my bottle of prednisone...
    <snip>
    there are two choices: refrain from using steroids in avian influenza cases, or attempt to use steroids in a rational, meaningful way.
    <snip>

    I think that is exactly what the large animal vet was saying in the comment section of the first link that I sent which seem to be agreeing with your source.

    But, of course if someone ends up in the hospital, the course of treatment will be whatever that the docs say. The WHO is having a meeting with international experts, and looking at what is being used to treat patients to see what is working. That makes sense, and hopefully there will be some benefit from the experience of the clinical practioners in Mexico.
  10. by   nerdtonurse?
    I remember reading about the autopsies done on 1918 victims and how their livers were rock hard and their lungs full of fluid that they had to ladle out, and how folks were dying within 24 hours when it came back the 2nd time. I also remember something about immunity if you'd had the weaker spring version....

    Maybe I'm warped (forget it, I know I'm warped)....maybe we shoud be TRYING to catch this thing.....better to catch the weak version when there's just a few cases and lots of hospital beds/meds than the killer that could be coming when there's no beds and no meds?
  11. by   Multicollinearity
    Quote from nerdtonurse?
    Maybe I'm warped (forget it, I know I'm warped)....maybe we shoud be TRYING to catch this thing.....better to catch the weak version when there's just a few cases and lots of hospital beds/meds than the killer that could be coming when there's no beds and no meds?
    YES! I was just thinking the same thing. As soon as my semester is done in a couple weeks, I might not mind getting this now. Thinking about it, at least...
  12. by   herring_RN
    the rn response network call to action

    http://www.calnurses.org/swineflu/as..._statement.pdf


    links and resources:

    http://www.calnurses.org/swineflu/
  13. by   DeepFriedRN
    I recall my grandmother saying that her mother, when one of the kids got sick with something (say, the mumps--this was before vaccinations), would plop the rest of them in the room with the sick one, so they'd all just get it and get it over with. Then they'd all be immune from then on..Kind of a scary thought, though..

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