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Air Force Academy Outbreak

Disasters   (648 Views 7 Comments)
by doesntlookgood doesntlookgood (New Member) New Member

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http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/07/14/colorado.doolie.flu/index.html

The thing I find worrisome here...

The AFA is a VERY highly regimented environment, especially for Freshman.

Hopefully they'll utilize this as the perfect "control" case and learn lessons about containment / treatment / mass casualty / information dissemination processes.

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1 Article; 32,400 Visitors; 5,758 Posts

The 70 that showed symptoms but tested negative makes me shake my head. I wonder if considering the kind of heavy exposure they had and their symptoms, not to mention their age, that at least a large portion of negatives are are really positive? Could that means the current test in use has a larger failure rate than we originally thought?

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indigo girl specializes in Too many to list.

28,205 Visitors; 5,172 Posts

The 70 that showed symptoms but tested negative makes me shake my head. I wonder if considering the kind of heavy exposure they had and their symptoms, not to mention their age, that at least a large portion of negatives are are really positive? Could that means the current test in use has a larger failure rate than we originally thought?

Docs are supposed to look at the clinical picture. If they had s/s, at least some were likely false negatives. The problems with the rapid flu tests are well known.

These kids will still be shedding virus for up to 7 days. It should be expected that more cadets will become ill. There may also be some that will be asymptomatic but still positive, and also shedding virus.

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nerdtonurse? specializes in ICU, telemetry.

3 Articles; 31,724 Visitors; 2,043 Posts

Keep in mind, the 1918 outbreak really got cooking stateside in military camps; Ft. Riley, KS, and Ft. Devens, MA stick out. Look up what happened at Devens, and then tell yourself, this will happen again.

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1 Article; 32,400 Visitors; 5,758 Posts

Keep in mind, the 1918 outbreak really got cooking stateside in military camps; Ft. Riley, KS, and Ft. Devens, MA stick out. Look up what happened at Devens, and then tell yourself, this will happen again.
I read a book about that very subject around 10 years ago. It claimed that the 1918 outbreak started in North America and was carried around the world by GIs. Up until that point consensus was that it was brought home to US by GIs but started somewhere else. Can anyone remember the name of the book, I wish I could? Come to think of it I think that was the book that got me interested in flu pandemics.

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1 Article; 32,400 Visitors; 5,758 Posts

Docs are supposed to look at the clinical picture. If they had s/s, at least some were likely false negatives. The problems with the rapid flu tests are well known.

These kids will still be shedding virus for up to 7 days. It should be expected that more cadets will become ill. There may also be some that will be asymptomatic but still positive, and also shedding virus.

Yes Indigo, thanks to you I know that the test can be unreliable. However, this article brought that home to me in a way that other post did not.

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