Health reform would be expensive. So would no health reform.

A lot of the debate about reforming health care revolves around a false choice — the simplistic idea that transforming the health system would be far more expensive than sticking with the current system.

A growing body of scholarly evidence points to the fallacy of that argument. Two new studies underscore that doing nothing would carry significant new costs in both the short and long terms.

A study in the journal Health Affairs estimates that by next year, the number of uninsured Americans could top 52 million — not counting those who lost coverage when they lost their jobs in the current recession.

A second study predicts that figure probably will reach at least 57 million people in a decade, about 10 million more than were uninsured in 2007. That research, by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, suggests the number of uninsured could easily reach 66 million by 2019 if worst-case assumptions about the economy are met.

Meanwhile, business spending on health insurance for workers would more than double, as would spending for Medicaid and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.