Pandemic Flu - Thread II - page 8

Frist calls for a Manhatten Project: We are so..., you know. He is telling it like it is. Does anyone really understand this? There is nothing that we can do but prepare, but no one is... Read More

  1. by   indigo girl
    There has been much made of the assertion that human to human transmission only occurs between blood relatives:

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/...lu-cover_x.htm

    Dr. Niman is saying over at Flutrackers that the,"genetics argument doesn't have much support. It's a sample size of 1 and is contradicted by other clusters that involve members that are not blood relatives." I guess time will tell. It would be interesting to hear what CIDRAP, and the other big names will make of this. Guess we will just have to wait.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Bush to visit Indonesia on 20 November 2006:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...fer=healthcare
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 6, '06
  2. by   indigo girl
    Chinese scientists identify deadly gene in H5N1 in this article, however, there have already been other similiar studies looking at different genes:
    http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG277591.htm

    Australian vets to assist in Indonesia:
    http://www.worldpoultry.net/ts_wo/wo...verride/___2Fp

    Thefts of sick rare birds from research center endangers many species of birds. This is very sad:
    http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/loc...sfla-news-palm

    Here is a strange story coming out of Great Britain:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv...n_page_id=1770

    Low pathogenic "North American" H5N1:
    http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/LPAITable.pdf

    Commentary from Recombinomics:
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11...East_Java.html

    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11060602/H5N1_NY.html

    The use of fire fighting foam to kill infected chickens:
    http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/...u_Chickens.php
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 6, '06
  3. by   azhiker96
    Any idea how they would get healthcare workers to take the vaccine if/when one becomes available? It seems part of the plan for handling the pandemic is vaccination of healthcare and infrastructure workers. However, if our flu shot thread is any indication, many may refuse to take the shot for fear of side effects. I just wonder if you've seen any discussion by the "planners" of how they'd get folks to line up for vaccinations.
  4. by   indigo girl
    Quote from azhiker96
    Any idea how they would get healthcare workers to take the vaccine if/when one becomes available? It seems part of the plan for handling the pandemic is vaccination of healthcare and infrastructure workers. However, if our flu shot thread is any indication, many may refuse to take the shot for fear of side effects. I just wonder if you've seen any discussion by the "planners" of how they'd get folks to line up for vaccinations.
    The other boards I check into are not nursing related, but there are some nurses, docs, vets, some scientist related fields, and lay people. I don't know that they understand the extent of the reluctance of nurses and docs to vaccinate with seasonal flu shots. With this flu however, I am thinking that being in the line of fire, so to speak, might influence the decisions of many. Being pressed into service thru conscience, and/or public pressure, and maybe gov't decree, most are going to be willing to vaccinate. They'll chance it to avoid infecting their own families if not themselves. And, maybe it will work. Maybe the Tamiflu will work, if there is enough, and if the organism does not develop resistance.

    As for the "planners", I don't think it has occurred to them that any HCW's would refuse. So to answer your question, I have not seen this addressed as an issue. Really, I can't envision it myself, and I have been very much aware of those concerns. Consider the alternative if working with flu victims everywhere, and no end in sight for weeks...It's true, we do not know if the vaccines will be effective, or about side effects. Hopefully, the longer it takes the virus to mutate, the more time to prepare for it. We may have a few years. I have to say though, that the news from China is very discouraging about the Fujian strain. And, the secrecy, from China as well as the WHO, is problematic. Translations from Indonesia seem to indicate that the virus is spreading. Using Tamiflu may be causing false negatives. The full extent of what is happening in Asia is being hidden from us probably for economic reasons.

    Wish I could tell you more, but I can't. I can only look at what studies are saying, and what scientists are thinking if they tell us. In the mean time,
    I would do as many have suggested, and put some food by for your family with masks, and gloves. It's cheap insurance for any emergency. Then go on with your life knowing that you made an educated guess, and decided to be cautious. Those who are tracking the virus, and there are many, will give some warning, possibly prior to any "official" warning if anything comes of this. Shopping for supplies after an official warning may not be much of an option.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 13, '06
  5. by   indigo girl
    The US Government is taking the threat of avian flu seriously, here is what they are saying to their consular staffs abroad. I think that they mean it, and the advice is very specific.
    http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_a...006110301.html

    Quote from hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian_2006110301.html
    ...in the event of severe pandemic influenza with high morbidity, the public may be advised to self-quarantine...families should be prepared to "shelter-in-place" for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period.

    Just as in the United States, U.S. government employees and their families overseas have primary responsibility for maintaining adequate supplies of food to shelter-in-place. This also applies to private U.S. citizens. For the long term, families are advised to store foods that are non-perishable, ...The cable also advises that families should store one gallon of water per person per day.

    ...In the event of complete infrastructure breakdown, water supply that is currently potable in some areas or countries may not remain so...
    I remember New Orleans, and the chaos afterwards. The government's advice seems reasonable, and they are saying that they are not going to rescue anyone. Is that not what they are saying to their staff? They won't be able to help.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 7, '06
  6. by   indigo girl
    Another suspected death in Indonesia:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...fer=healthcare

    Troubling commentary from Recombinomics:
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11...27N_Egypt.html

    Quote from www.recombinomics.com/News/11070601/H5N1_S227N_Egypt.html
    ...The recent case has a change, M230I, near the receptor binding domain...

    Changes in the receptor binding domain are of concern because of potential changes in binding to receptors on the surface of cells, which could affect transmission...

    Changes in the receptor binding domain can have significant effects of the ease of transmission from human to human. Sequences released from birds in southern China identify additional changes...

    The above changes significantly increase the likelihood of H5N1 increasing the efficiency of human to human transmission without decreasing the high case fatality rate, which remain causes for concern...
    Case confirmed by WHO:
    http://www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=22825
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 7, '06
  7. by   indigo girl
    State of Florida has updated its pandemic influenza plan as of Oct 2006.
    It has some very grim statements and predictions. Worth reading.
    http://www.doh.state.fl.us/rw_Bullet...uv104Final.pdf
  8. by   wannabesedated
    Hey guys,
    Please don't think I'm a complete idiot for asking this.. but I'm completely clueless when it comes to this pandemic stuff..

    I was asking my mom today what happens to pt's in the hospital when there is a pandemic that involves quarantine, and she thinks that the nurses are stuck quarantined in the hospitals (unable to leave at all), working f/t unpaid.. please tell me this is not true! Would only nurses currently working at that hospital be responsible for pt care or would they require all nurses to continue working throughout a pandemic?
  9. by   indigo girl
    Quote from AshleyDawn20
    Hey guys,
    Please don't think I'm a complete idiot for asking this.. but I'm completely clueless when it comes to this pandemic stuff..

    I was asking my mom today what happens to pt's in the hospital when there is a pandemic that involves quarantine, and she thinks that the nurses are stuck quarantined in the hospitals (unable to leave at all), working f/t unpaid.. please tell me this is not true! Would only nurses currently working at that hospital be responsible for pt care or would they require all nurses to continue working throughout a pandemic?
    Anytime, I've ever been mandated to stay, I've been paid, as in blizzard situations in Maine. Staff were paid for the entire time that they had to stay, sometimes for days. I can remember the night staff, washing our uniforms while some of us slept to relieve them in the morning.

    I think you can to look to history for some examples of what this could be like. What happened with healthcare workers in New Orleans who stayed in catastrophic conditions?

    You seem to be concerned about being quarantined. That is a valid concern. It might help to read some of the literature from, and about what happened in 1918, referenced in the two threads here on pandemic flu such as John Barry's book.
    Read the book that your two Canadian docs just put out, also referenced somewhere in this thread. That in particular might give you more of an idea of what can happen. Those docs had to deal with SARS in Toronto so their experience is recent, and a very valuable model for dealing with epidemic conditions.

    Individual facilities may have policies in place. Your city, and state or province will have plans. Start looking at those. Ask your local public health authorities about their plans.

    It is good to look at these things, but remember we do not know if or when this will occur. Planning for emergency is never a waste of time and resources. It might just be a different kind of emergency. Do the best that you can, to make some preparations for yourself, and your family as the government is telling their staff in Hong Kong. Remain aware, educate yourself about the issues, and what the local plans are in your area. If you have done all this, it's enough. I think that is all that you can do.

    CIDRAP News for 7 November 2006:
    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/con...uarantine.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 7, '06
  10. by   indigo girl
    Dr. Michael Greger, MD has a new book out. It's free on the internet. If he sells a copy, all proceeds go to charity. What do you suppose his motivation is?
    Warning, the descriptions of 1918 are absolutely gruesome, in fact much of this is very graphic, but the recent history, and the Spanish flu information is incredible. This is not for anyone with a weak stomach. It is a terrible indictment of the way that animals are raised for food, how they are transported, and slaughtered. There are safer, not to mention more humane methods.
    If you are going to eat meat after reading this, better stick with organic. Grass fed beef is healthier. Kosher methods of slaughtering may be more humane, and cause less of a problem with fecal contamination.

    http://birdflubook.com/g.php?id=5

    http://www.hsus.org/farm/news/ournew...out_there.html

    Here is an interesting site with many different video interviews:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/prog...nd/index.shtml
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 8, '06
  11. by   indigo girl
    Margaret Chan is new Director-General at the WHO:
    http://www.examiner.com/a-386446~Bir..._Head_WHO.html

    The problem is this, she is a citizen of a country that does not allow full disclosure, but her job requires it. Where does that leave us? China has not been releasing recent viral sequences. Neither has the WHO.
    Remember SARS? She caved in under pressure of Chinese officials to deny the presence of the disease in that country. She is now in charge of global efforts to combat H5N1. Keep that in mind when reading this next link:

    http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_a...5172(boxun.com
    Always remember this, when reading reports coming out of China by this news agency.

    The Alarming Spread of Zoonotic Diseases in Humans:
    http://www.innovations-report.de/htm...cht-73607.html

    The WHO commenting on scientists recent disagreement over the Fujian strain of H5N1:
    http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/Cris...-R5-Alertnet-3

    Commentary from Effect Measure discussing research on a gene that contributes to the virulence of H5N1:
    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...rulence_ge.php
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 8, '06
  12. by   indigo girl
    Apparently the recommendation to shelter in place for 12 weeks has been removed from this link:
    http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian.html

    First, they changed it back to 2 weeks, then removed it all together. Nothing like giving people conflicting messages. Good luck, to the expats in Hong Kong. Somehow, what's coming across is like a "you're on your own" kind of message. In the absence of fact, we get to make up whatever we want to.

    http://www.afcd.gov.hk/english/whats.../h5n1_2006.pdf

    Papua, New Guinea:
    http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20061109/news02.htm

    Gov't of Nigeria warns against vaccinating poultry:
    http://www.afrol.com/articles/22461

    From the BBC, maps and links:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4531500.stm
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/h...map/html/1.stm
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 9, '06
  13. by   indigo girl
    An article on what to do until the vaccine arrives from Science, 10 Nov 06:
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...30&postcount=1

    Italy's influential diva:
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...29&postcount=1

    More on China sharing viral sequences, and arguing over the Fujian strain:
    http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/arti...1-ArticlePage2

    Video interview with Dr. Niman. I can't view this for some reason so I hope someone else can:
    http://www.wtnh.com/global/video/pop...-%20story%20by

    H5N1 on the Crimean Penninsula:
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11..._Crimea_3.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 10, '06

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