Pandemic Flu - Thread II - page 6

Frist calls for a Manhatten Project: We are so..., you know. He is telling it like it is. Does anyone really understand this? There is nothing that we can do but prepare, but no one is... Read More

  1. by   indigo girl
    I did not notice your post until this AM hence the delay in responding. I don't mind having a dialogue with you about this topic. And, I think that actually, you are somewhat concerned about this. You should have some reasonable concern but, the sky is not falling.

    Quote from Cosper123
    75 deaths worldwide in 16 years since this strain has been around. to put that into perspective we have 550,270 deaths to cancer every year according to the CDC...in the USA alone.
    However, that number has steadily increased in the last 5 years or so, but again, lets put that into perspective. Where has this increase been? Oh yes, in countries where people have a tendancy to live amongst their animals and have poor sanitation systems/habits.


    Yes, indeed the cases are occurring there. I assume that you mean it is irrelevant to the rest of the world because we don't live like that. But, if
    you think that, you have missed the point. And, here it is:

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/con...ts/panflu.html

    Quote from www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/biofacts/panflu.html
    Inefficient transmission of current H5N1 strains may be related to lack of appropriate avian virus cell receptors in the upper respiratory tracts of humans and the inability of H5N1 strains to recognize human cell receptors (see References: Shinya 2006). A mutation allowing H5N1 avian influenza virus to recognize human cell receptors could enhance person-to-person transmission owing to the potential for greater viral replication in the upper respiratory tract.
    The fact is that this virus is mutating rapidly. Check out all of the posts quoting Dr. Niman referring to this. Every time a human is infected, it offers another opportunity for adaptation allowing for the increased ability to infect humans. This is why milions and millions of dollars are being spent all over the world on this problem. It is because it has the POTENTIAL to kill millions. And, it does not matter that it is way over there in a poor country like Indonesia, where the people live with their chickens under unsanitary conditions. Those are, however, the ideal conditions for a mutation to occur. Where and how they live is an irrelevant point, with regard to dismissing the risk to the rest of the world.
    Migrating birds may not bring this virus here, but people certainly will if it does become as transmissible as any other flu. Keep in mind, you are contagious before you even know you have it. One patient who got on a plane infected many, many others with SARS. SARS is not as contagious as influenza, BTW.

    Quote from www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/biofacts/panflu.html
    Public health officials are closely monitoring the ongoing occurrence of H5N1 avian influenza in humans and watching for the emergence of a strain capable of causing sustained human-to-human transmission.
    The fact that it is occurring in Indonesia is not influencing the amount of concern. They are watching for "sustained" transmission. If that occurs, then we do not know what will happen, but it will be great cause for concern.

    Quote from Cosper123
    In addition comments such as this do not help - "Human to Human to Human spread of H5N1 was observed in Karo, Indonesia, earlier this year."
    As some may have noticed, no source was sited here. And for such a ground-breaking revelation as human to human transmission...I hate to be a stickler for the details...but I'd like a credible source. I ask this not just to be difficult, but as I said this is a serious claim to be throwing around so lightly just to make a point. Lets discuss this serious matter on the merits of truth, not propaganda and scare tactics.
    If you had been following all the information on both threads, this would not have been a surprise. But, there is an awful lot of information, so you could have missed it. They say "sustained" person to person has not happened yet. They don't deny that human to human has occurred.
    Or that human to human to human has occurred. How do they know this?
    In the Karo cluster, which is the Indonesian cluster, referred to here, it was proven in the lab with analysis of viral sequences. You can't argue with lab analysis. Facts are facts.

    Quote from [url
    www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/biofacts/panflu.html][/url]
    The high case-fatality rate suggests that the pathogenicity of H5N1 may be similar to the 1918 H1N1 pandemic strain. Researchers have hypothesized that cytokine storm (ie, overproduction of cytokines) may have played an important role in the pathogenesis of the 1918 pandemic strain. A laboratory-based study involving H5N1 strains taken from ill humans in Asia (during 1997 and 2004) and an ordinary current H1N1 strain (circulating in Asia in 1998) found that all the H5N1 viruses caused human alveolar cells and bronchial epithelial cells to secrete significantly higher levels of various cytokines and chemokines than did the ordinary virus (see References: Chan 2005). Another recent study demonstrated a strong induction of chemokines and their receptors in macrophages infected by H5N1 and H9N2 avian influenza viruses (see References: Zhou 2006). Finally, a recent case series reported from Vietnam involving patients with H5N1 influenza showed that high viral load and high chemokine and cytokine levels are central to the pathogenesis of H5N1 influenza (see References: de Jong 2006). These findings support the role of cytokine storm in the pathogenesis of H5N1.
    I hope this helpful to you. You can PM me anytime for any suggestions or questions if you feel the need. I do realize that with all the other diseases with higher numbers of fatalities at this time, it is very difficult to take this seriously.

    Stay healthy,

    indigo
    Last edit by indigo girl on Oct 28, '06
  2. by   indigo girl
  3. by   indigo girl
    Pregnancy and Influenza Planning, commentary from Effect Measure on the serious need to address this issue in any planning:

    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...nni_1.php#more
  4. by   indigo girl
    CIDRAP - Just released on Oct 27 2006, a report on avian influenza and implications for human disease:
    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/con...flu_human.html

    Quote from www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/biofacts/avflu_human.html
    Outbreaks of influenza have been recognized in domestic poultry (chickens and turkeys) for many years. Avian influenza strains in domestic chickens and turkeys are classified according to disease severity, with two recognized forms: highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), also known as fowl plague, and low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). Avian influenza viruses that cause HPAI are highly virulent, and mortality rates in infected flocks often approach 100%. LPAI viruses are generally of lower virulence, but these viruses can serve as progenitors to HPAI viruses. All HPAI strains identified to date have involved H5 and H7 subtypes.
    Human infections caused by avian strains have been associated with both HPAI and LPAI strains (H5, H7, and H9) (see References: HHS 2005: Pandemic influenza plan).
    Evidence that HPAI strains arise from LPAI strains has led the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) to classify all H5 or H7 strains as notifiable (see References: Alexander 2003, Capua 2004, OIE 2005).


    If H5N1 continues to circulate widely among poultry, the potential for emergence of a pandemic strain remains high. For example, H5N1 viruses have been found in pigs in southern China in 2001 and 2003 (see References: Cyranoski 2004), and human H3N2 influenza viruses are endemic in pigs in that area. H5N1 has been reported in pigs in Indonesia as well (see Oct 10, 2006, CIDRAP News Story and see References: Cyranoski 2005). Thus, the conditions exist for exchange of genetic material between the different viruses in the pig host (see References: Li 2004; WHO: Avian influenza: update: implications of H5N1 infections in pigs in China).

    Some scientists believe that reassortment between an avian and a human strain could occur in the human population without an intermediary host; if this proves true, as more humans become exposed and infected, the potential for reassortment with a human strain may also increase. It is also possible that a pandemic strain could emerge following a more gradual process of adaptive mutation in humans, which is likely what happened with the 1918 H1N1 pandemic strain (see References: Taubenberger 2005; WHO: Influenza pandemic preparedness and response 2005).

    To date, sustained person-to-person transmission has not been recognized, although probable person-to-person spread was identified in Thailand involving transmission from an ill child to her mother and aunt (see References: Ungchusak 2005) and several other familial clusters have been recognized (see References: Olsen 2005: Family clustering of avian influenza A [H5N1]). In May 2006, WHO reported an H5N1 influenza cluster in Indonesia involving seven cases of person-to-person transmission; one of the cases involved two generations of transmission (see References: WHO: Avian influenza: Situation in Indonesia: Update 14 and see May 24, 2006, CIDRAP News story).

    Inefficient transmission of current H5N1 strains may be related to lack of appropriate avian virus cell receptors in the upper respiratory tracts of humans and the inability of H5N1 strains to recognize human cell receptors (see References: Shinya 2006). A mutation allowing H5N1 avian influenza virus to recognize human cell receptors could enhance person-to-person transmission owing to the potential for greater viral replication in the upper respiratory tract.

    Intensified surveillance in northern Vietnam suggests that the local strains are adapting to humans. These efforts have identified less severe cases, more infections in older adults, and a few family clusters that suggest person-to-person spread (see References: WHO Writing Committee of the WHO Consultation on Human Influenza A/H5 2005).
    Last edit by indigo girl on Oct 28, '06
  5. by   indigo girl
    Quote from fusster
    Well I'm just worried about if there's an outbreak and it becomes contained, is there still a risk of getting the bird flu days/weeks/months later by touching something the patient may have come into contact with? The fact that it can be in the water is really scary as well.
    I just wanted to update this because I just read the following report today that does address your concerns more directly:
    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/con...flu_human.html

    Quote from www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/biofacts/avflu_human.html
    Physical characteristics of influenza A viruses
    Viruses remain infectious after 24 to 48 hours on nonporous environmental surfaces and less than 12 hours on porous surfaces (see References: Bean 1982). (Note: The importance of fomites in disease transmission has not been determined.)
    Influenza A viruses can persist for extended periods of time in water (see References: WHO: Review of latest available evidence on risks to human health through potential transmission of avian influenza [H5N1] through water and sewage). One study of subtype H3N6 found that virus resuspended in Mississippi River water was detected for up to 32 days at 4C and was undetectable after 4 days at 22C (see References: Webster 1978). Another study found that several avian influenza viruses persisted in distilled water for 207 days at 17C and 102 days at 28C (see References: Stallknecht 1990).
    Recent data from studies of H5N1 in domestic ducks have shown that H5N1 can survive in the environment for 6 days at 37C (see References: WHO: Laboratory study of H5N1 viruses in domestic ducks).
    Inactivation of the virus occurs under the following conditions (see References: OIE 2002, PHS): temperatures of 56C for 3 hours or 60C or more for 30 minutes; acidic pH conditions; presence of oxidizing agents such as sodium dodecyl sulfate, lipid solvents, and B-propiolactone; and exposure to disinfectants such as formalin and iodine compounds.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Oct 28, '06
  6. by   Cosper123
    Quote from indigo girl
    The fact is that this virus is mutating rapidly. Check out all of the posts quoting Dr. Niman referring to this. Every time a human is infected, it offers another opportunity for adaptation allowing for the increased ability to infect humans. It is because it has the POTENTIAL to kill millions.
    Exactly, it has the POTENTIAL to kill millions. Yet the word pandemic is thrown around as if it's a sure thing. And yes it is mutating, although I wouldn't describe it as "rapidly"...not moreso than various other viruses. Show me conclusive proof of antigenic shift and then I'll be concerned...but you keep citing people such as Dr. Niman who hasn't published a peer-reviewed paper since the mid-1990s. Which credible and non-biased source has validated these claims? Not to mention Dr. Niman owns Recombinomics Inc...any guess as to what they are filing patents for? This makes me wonder what Dr. Niman's motives are in all of this. Especially when:

    -Again, no peer reveiwed paper since the mid 90s
    -Klaus Sthr who is a bird flu expert at the WHO, calls Niman leads "far-fetched,"
    -The journal Science has debunked Niman's last human-human transmission theory involving swine (via antigenic shift).
    -Dr. Martin Williams, who also covers H5N1, has stated his direct quote about Dr. Niman : "Niman pours forth a veritable stream-of-consciousness series of commentaries, taking news tidbits from here and there and concocting some truths, and a generous helping of pure baloney." "He's just prolific, It's just scaremongering. People like to read it and get excited."


    Frankly, Dr. Niman's motives and credibility are questionable at best. And more importantly, all I am saying here is we must be careful with sensationalized statements that equate to fear-mongering. Sure every time a human is infected, it offers the potential for an adaptation allowing to the increased ability to infect humans...but exactly how often does such a situation occur? We're running with 'possibility' instead of 'probability' here.


    Quote from indigo girl
    The fact that it is occurring in Indonesia is not influencing the amount of concern. They are watching for "sustained" transmission. If that occurs, then we do not know what will happen, but it will be great cause for concern.
    I agree fully, when it does occur I too will be concerned. *when* it occurs.


    Quote from indigo girl
    If you had been following all the information on both threads, this would not have been a surprise. But, there is an awful lot of information, so you could have missed it. They say "sustained" person to person has not happened yet. They don't deny that human to human has occurred.
    Or that human to human to human has occurred. How do they know this?
    In the Karo cluster, which is the Indonesian cluster, referred to here, it was proven in the lab with analysis of viral sequences. You can't argue with lab analysis. Facts are facts.
    No surprise, just a question posed to validate claims. And yes, actually you can can argue with lab analysis. This is like statistics, where "facts" can be strewn to make points. For example, they proved that "human to human" occured, and that "analysis of viral sequences" provied it. Fine, nice use of ambiguous terms there...but I'd need a bit more information on the scope of the project, some details/clarifications...the controls maybe. That is why "facts or facts" doesn't quite hold up, and the "facts" change for many areas every decade or so. Remember when it was better to place a baby on it's tummy instead of it's back? That was based on facts...


    Quote from indigo girl
    I do realize that with all the other diseases with higher numbers of fatalities at this time, it is very difficult to take this seriously.
    Please make no mistake, I take this potential very seriously. However, I like to remind myself that I am absolutely in love with a field based in science. Because of this, I am fond of approaching issues in a scientific manner and keeping everything in perspective. Fact is, this is such a big issue because the media has made it one...while ignoring issues such as in my past post concerning our exacerbating the problem with bacteria.

    I commend your efforts in tracking this issue. If this does break out into a pandemic, I'll tout you as a true hero. And hey it is an issue and it is dangerous, it DOES warrent coverage. So please understand that I am not trying to be critical of you or your efforts here. I am merely offering the other side here, making sure people are informed enough to honestly make decisions for themselves. I'd imagine with your impressive experience as a nurse that you've seen plenty of people who would take one side of the story and run with it...I'm just trying to make people stop for a moment and think a bit before taking off

    Take care and good luck with your research.
  7. by   indigo girl
    Quote from Cosper123
    Exactly, it has the POTENTIAL to kill millions. Yet the word pandemic is thrown around as if it's a sure thing. And yes it is mutating, although I wouldn't describe it as "rapidly"...not moreso than various other viruses. Show me conclusive proof of antigenic shift and then I'll be concerned...but you keep citing people such as Dr. Niman who hasn't published a peer-reviewed paper since the mid-1990s. Which credible and non-biased source has validated these claims? Not to mention Dr. Niman owns Recombinomics Inc...any guess as to what they are filing patents for? This makes me wonder what Dr. Niman's motives are in all of this. Especially when:

    -Again, no peer reveiwed paper since the mid 90s
    -Klaus Sthr who is a bird flu expert at the WHO, calls Niman leads "far-fetched,"
    -The journal Science has debunked Niman's last human-human transmission theory involving swine (via antigenic shift).
    -Dr. Martin Williams, who also covers H5N1, has stated his direct quote about Dr. Niman : "Niman pours forth a veritable stream-of-consciousness series of commentaries, taking news tidbits from here and there and concocting some truths, and a generous helping of pure baloney." "He's just prolific, It's just scaremongering. People like to read it and get excited."


    Frankly, Dr. Niman's motives and credibility are questionable at best. And more importantly, all I am saying here is we must be careful with sensationalized statements that equate to fear-mongering. Sure every time a human is infected, it offers the potential for an adaptation allowing to the increased ability to infect humans...but exactly how often does such a situation occur? We're running with 'possibility' instead of 'probability' here.



    I agree fully, when it does occur I too will be concerned. *when* it occurs.


    No surprise, just a question posed to validate claims. And yes, actually you can can argue with lab analysis. This is like statistics, where "facts" can be strewn to make points. For example, they proved that "human to human" occured, and that "analysis of viral sequences" provied it. Fine, nice use of ambiguous terms there...but I'd need a bit more information on the scope of the project, some details/clarifications...the controls maybe. That is why "facts or facts" doesn't quite hold up, and the "facts" change for many areas every decade or so. Remember when it was better to place a baby on it's tummy instead of it's back? That was based on facts...



    Please make no mistake, I take this potential very seriously. However, I like to remind myself that I am absolutely in love with a field based in science. Because of this, I am fond of approaching issues in a scientific manner and keeping everything in perspective. Fact is, this is such a big issue because the media has made it one...while ignoring issues such as in my past post concerning our exacerbating the problem with bacteria.

    I commend your efforts in tracking this issue. If this does break out into a pandemic, I'll tout you as a true hero. And hey it is an issue and it is dangerous, it DOES warrent coverage. So please understand that I am not trying to be critical of you or your efforts here. I am merely offering the other side here, making sure people are informed enough to honestly make decisions for themselves. I'd imagine with your impressive experience as a nurse that you've seen plenty of people who would take one side of the story and run with it...I'm just trying to make people stop for a moment and think a bit before taking off

    Take care and good luck with your research.

    Dr. Niman's view about recombination being the principle driving force for viral evolution is controversial. I would not argue that point. That his work with viral sequencing is aimed toward predicting vaccines in no way diminishes his contributions to the ungoing research and discussions regarding avian flu. Personally, I believe he is correct. He appears to be interested in patents not publishing. But, this is not really about Niman anyway. He is just one scientist. He does not need me to defend him. There are links to many other sources provided in the two pandemic flu threads regarding viral mutation. How often does the opportunity for mutation have to occur? It just has to occur once in a sustainable form.

    Dr. Martin Williams, the ornithologist, and conservationist that you mention, is himself somewhat controversial in that not every scientist would agree with his conclusions about H5N1 and wild birds. He could be considered to have an agenda. I thought his conclusions were interesting, but at odds with what other scientists were saying about H5N1. Does this make him wrong not necessarily about everything. I am very sympathetic to what he is saying because I am a birder. In his own way, he is just as fixated in his view of things as Niman is. Moral of the story, scientists can be proven wrong about some things, but be right about other things. So I would not negate him nor Niman. Time will tell, just as it will with Niman's predictions some of which have already proven to be correct. I have been unable to locate any peer reviewed papers that Dr. Williams has published. On his site, he says he has published articles in some magazines. I thought I had read a paper by him, but have not been able to locate anything. BTW, again on his site, he makes disparaging remarks about Dr. Webster of St. Judes, Dr. Nabarro at the UN, etc. also. I thought that this article that he wrote was of interest but it's not not in a peer reviewed journal: Farm fish fed dead chickens a risk for H5N1 influenza in Indonesia?

    Scientists like nurses frequently disagree. I think that adds to the discussion. They also sling mud at each other.

    This is what Klaus Stohr, at the WHO, the other scientist that you mentioned, is saying about the threat estimate which in reality is what I am interested in:
    Dr. Klaus Stohr | "A Ticking Time Bomb in Your Backyard"

    Your statement that this is a big issue because the media has made it one, is your perception, and not necessarily invalid. This risk communicator addresses the downplaying of risk by reporters. My own experience has been that large sectors of the public have no knowledge about risk at all. But, that is my perception.
    Peter Sandman Column: Pandemic Influenza Risk Communication: The Teachable Moment

    Quote from //www.psandman.com/col/pandemic.htm#no-1
    Despite the numbers game, H5N1 experts are doing their best to sound the alarm. But other information sources seem to be muting the alarm. This includes some stunning examples from government health agencies, medical newsletters, and others who ought to know better. And it includes some examples from journalists, who might have been expected to err on the sensationalist side instead. It’s as if these other communicators can’t quite believe what the experts are telling them, and keep toning it down to something they consider less “panic-provoking” and more “responsible.” We’re not sure if this toning down is conscious or unconscious, intentional or naive. But it is common.
    If CIDRAP, CDC, and the WHO believe two generations of human to human transmission have occurred, I have no reason not to believe it. They don't have to explain the lab experiment or testing to me. To make such a statement, would have taken a lot of verification of the results because it is such a major admission for them to make. I am certain that they would not have done so unless they were positive. I believe that they are being extremely careful about anything they say.

    If the US government is telling people to have some food, water, and supplies put away for a "potential" pandemic, I think that they mean it. When they say you are responsible for your own preparations, I believe them. Self reliance is a really good idea. I can think of many reasons to do this anyway, and no reason not to. We did discuss this in thread one. Who would want to be in line at a store after any kind of emergency was announced? If nothing happens you are ready for flood, hurricane, blizzard, whatever.

    BTW, I agree with you about the bacteria, but I just don't have any spare time left to study any thing else. I think longingly of dengue fever...I would just like to add that it would be helpful in the future if you could provide links to your sources of discussion. And, be careful about personal remarks like the "hero" reference. I'm not going to take it personally, but some people might. Good luck to you too, Cosper123. I have enjoyed our discussion. I hope that you and yours stay well.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Nov 21, '06
  8. by   indigo girl
    H5N1 in India in Feb 2006
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/a...59,curpg-1.cms

    Quote from //timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-223059,curpg-1.cms[/url
    ... the virus that hit India, ... had mutated and undergone a re-assortment in Turkey.
    ...the virus, which had originated in Qinghai...was carried to Turkey by migratory birds. Here, the virus mutated and mixed with the Vietnamese strain. The mixed strain was then brought to India by migratory birds. This phenomenon of being hit by a re-assorted virus has not been reported from any other country over the past four years.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Oct 31, '06
  9. by   indigo girl
    A Public Heath Director in Arizona Gets Point Across Via Newspaper Article:
    http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?n...d=222077&rfi=6
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Influenza Virus - Science Background I - from Effect Measure:
    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...kgr_4.php#more
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    An example of scientists disagreeing with each other about what the research is showing:
    http://bodyandhealth.canada.com/chan...id=1020&rot=11
    Last edit by indigo girl on Oct 30, '06
  10. by   indigo girl
    The Egyptian woman admitted to the hospital on Oct 4th has died despite treatment
    with Tamiflu and advanced medical care:
    http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L3068642.htm
    There is another suspected new case in the same region, and reports are saying
    five cases are possible.
    Bloomberg subscription service is reporting this.
    http://www.gom.net.eg/gom1/gom.shtml
    Human Bird Flu Case Reported in North Egypt, Al Ghomhuria Says
    2006-10-30 02:42 (New York)
    Quote from ://www.gom.net.eg/gom1/gom.shtml
    Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- A suspected case of human bird flu has been reported in the northern Egyptian governorate of Gharbiyah, raising the number of possible infected humans in
    the area to five, al-Ghomhuria reported, citing a local hospital.
    A 23-year-old woman in the city of Tanta was suspected of having symptoms of avian flu and was transported to a local hospital, the Cairo-based newspaper reported......
    Last edit by indigo girl on Oct 31, '06
  11. by   indigo girl
    This article makes several interesting points, not the least of which is that we do
    not know, how we are going to tell if we are close to a pandemic situation.
    http://www.latimes.com/news/printedi...news-a_section
    Quote from //www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-sci-birdflu31oct31,1,2393002.story?coll=la-news-a_section
    The researchers ... said the vaccine administered to birds in China was ineffective against the strain and may have facilitated its proliferation ... by eliminating weaker flu strains.

    "... they're basically driving the evolution" of H5N1, said Henry Niman, president of a virus and vaccine research company in Pittsburgh called Recombinomics Inc. who was not involved with the study.

    "There seems to be a lot more of the virus around in 2006 than in 2005," ...a dominant strain is also more likely to spread widely. That has happened twice since H5N1 was first identified in China in 1996.
    The first wave of outbreaks were limited to Asia, but the second wave traveled from western China's Qinghai Lake in 2005 to Europe and Africa — and continues to spread. "Now", said lead author Dr. Yi Guan,..."we believe it is likely a third wave has already started."

    Vaccinating poultry against H5N1 amounts to "a huge natural experiment," said Dr. Scott P. Layne, an epidemiologist at the UCLA School of Public Health. "By vaccinating we're manipulating the virus' evolution....

    David Nabarro, who coordinates the United Nations' efforts against human and avian influenza, said the new data were a reminder that H5N1 was constantly evolving.
    "I don't think it's a sign that we're getting any closer to pandemic flu," Nabarro said. "Frankly, I don't know how we're going to know when pandemic flu gets close. We're just going to get hit by it."
    Another article: http://www.ajc.com/news/content/shar...COX_W6947.html
    Quote from //www.ajc.com/news/content/shared/news/stories/2006/10/PANDEMIC31_COX_W6947.html[/url
    Frederick Hayden, a University of Virginia virologist ...with the World Health Organization's pandemic preparedness program, said the genetic changes described by Webster and his colleagues "appear to be unprecedented, and we don't know what's driving that."
    Last edit by indigo girl on Oct 31, '06
  12. by   indigo girl
    Last edit by indigo girl on Oct 31, '06
  13. by   fredness
    I have been following this issue for about a year and may be able to contribute to the discussion.

    There is an excellent website called the www.FluWikie.com which allows anyone to collaborate of this challenge. There are links to clinical studies of H5N1, science of influenza, online classes, videos, preparedness information, infection control, foreign language resources, hundreds of pages from many authorities. It really is the central non-governmental source of pandemic information. I hope that you visit the site and participate by contributing your experience to the pages there. For example if you know about treating Fever then simply go to that page click Edit and type your info then click Save. You will need to note a summary of what you added and a username like here. Spam is removed daily. I find using the Index and the Site Map are easy ways to navigate the site.


    I put together many useful files onto a cd which is a great way to share a lot of information. This can help reduce the learning curve for thouse new to the subject. The cd can be downloaded from the website or you can contact me for a copy. Some of the info is copyrighted (WHO, CDC, etc) so I do not sell the discs. See www.pandemicreferenceguides.com It is not fancy and suggestions are always welcomed. There is also a 200 page file that is made of several documents which would be useful to have available printed for reference.

    Regarding the herbal treatment of influenza, I would only bet my life on supplements which have proven efficacy. The link to the Master Flu Tonic on CurEvents is not based on scientific research. The first issue is that the H5N1 virus replicates very fast, can hit the ON button for immune response creating a cytokine storm and possibly Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. Shannon of CurEvents posted a good summary of her research is here. I also plan to take supplements for anti-influenza properties. References from studies in PubMed are cited here.

    For ARDS some patients are given OXEPA. The nearest non-prescription equivalent might be Fish Oil and Borage Oil. There is also a evidence that statins may improve outcomes but there is no silver bullet when it comes to ARDS.

    Keep up the good work! We need all the help we can get.

    Here is the About section of the FluWiki...
    The purpose of the Flu Wiki is to help local communities prepare for and perhaps cope with a possible influenza pandemic. This is a task previously ceded to local, state and national governmental public health agencies. Our goal is to be:
    • a reliable source of information, as neutral as possible, about important facts useful for a public health approach to pandemic influenza
    • a venue for anticipating the vast range of problems that may arise if a pandemic does occur
    • a venue for thinking about implementable solutions to foreseeable problems
    No one, in any health department or government agency, knows all the things needed to cope with an influenza pandemic. But it is likely someone knows something about some aspect of each of them and if we can pool and share our knowledge we can advance preparation for and the ability to cope with events. This is not meant to be a substitute for planning, preparation and implemntation by civil authorities, but a parallel effort that complements, supports and extends those efforts.
    Last edit by fredness on Oct 31, '06

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