Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Cytokine Storm article contains an illustrative animation of what occurs, this is an old article, and any reference to the numbers of victims is out of date:
http://www.cytokinestorm.com/
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A Harvard University poll shows that many Americans would have no caregiver in the event of a flu pandemic:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061026/...irdflu_poll_dc
Again, a month long period is addressed. Whatever happened to the 3 day or 1 week or even 2 weeks of preparation they were suggesting earlier?

Originally Posted by /news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061026/ts_nm/birdflu_poll_dc

... a large majority of Americans would abide by recommendations of public health officials and make big changes to how they live during a possible monthlong avian influenza pandemic.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Prophetic video?
http://boss.streamos.com/wmedia/sain...windows56k.wvx

Russia fighting avian flu, no human cases yet:
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.ph...6-104250-5320r

Just out of curiosity, I looked at what birds migrate to Australia, and from where, here are some:
http://www.amonline.net.au/factsheets/common_koel.htm

Originally Posted by www.amonline.net.au/factsheets/common_koel.htm

... Most birds migrate from Australia to New Guinea, probably eastern Indonesia and perhaps further north, but some remain in northern Australia.

http://www.dlwc.nsw.gov.au/care/wetl...d_plovers.html

The Pandemic Plan for Singapore, it's good, but can they do it? How much Tamiflu do they have ?
http://www.moh.gov.sg/cmaweb/attachm.../MainDec05.pdf

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

CIDRAP - Report on Vietnam - Part 2
http://birdflubreakingnews.com/templ...etculture.html

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Dr. Osterholm in March 2006:
http://citypages.com/databank/27/1320/article14219.asp

Originally Posted by citypages.com/databank/27/1320/article14219.asp

In its present form, H5N1 has killed over half of the people it's infected. The great flu pandemic of 1918-19, by contrast, killed about 5 percent of its victims.

... this thing has continued to mutate from its earliest days, in Hong Kong in 1997. And ... it's mutating in very similar fashion to the way the 1918 virus did.

... they actually have gone back and looked at the full genetic codes for 169 avian virus genomes, dating way back...There were two viruses that showed a protein tag at the end of one of the nonstructural genes that actually looks to help cause the cytokine storm that makes this a unique illness.* And guess which two viruses they were: 1918 H1N1, and the current H5N1.

... the case of the young girl in Turkey... We definitely have clusters where it's not just bird contact [spreading the virus]...Her virus has now been fully sequenced, and there were three mutations that occurred in that virus, between the bird version and hers. One was the substitution of a glutamic acid with lysine at the 223-hemagglutinin position. That is what changes it from a bird-receptor virus to a human-receptor virus. The second thing was two other substitutions that served to make it look more and more like a human virus.

...when people talk about 1918 as a worst-case scenario, well, maybe that isn't the worst-case scenario. That's hard for people to hear...

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Indigo.....your obsession with this topic is admirable. I very much enjoy your links and dedication to keeping track of bird flu. My computor-illiteracy prevents me from doing what you seem to do so easily.
Pleae keep up the good work!

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Originally Posted by gr8greens

Indigo.....your obsession with this topic is admirable. I very much enjoy your links and dedication to keeping track of bird flu. My computor-illiteracy prevents me from doing what you seem to do so easily.
Pleae keep up the good work!

I think of it as focused research that I do because it interests me. Placing it here allows me to look at progression, and analyze just why it is a threat. No one can predict if it will become more transmissible. An opinion from someone who has worked with viruses, and uses the moniker, Monotreme at Fluwiki sums it up in this way, and has given permission to use his words:

Originally Posted by Monotreme at Fluwiki

The H5N1 virus that originated in China in the 1990?s has novel properties.
H5N1 is an influenza A virus. Like all flu A viruses, it mutates at a very rapid rate.
It has already killed millions of birds and many different mammals.
It has crossed the species-barrier and killed over 140 humans.
It has killed over 50% of the people it has infected, even with advanced medical care.
It preferentially kills school-age children and young adults.
It kills in a similar way to the severe pandemic of 1918 - cytokine dysregulation
H5N1 is widely dispersed
It has been found in animals in countries all over the world.
It has infected many species of birds and mammals.
Experimental studies have demonstrated that it is highly lethal in mammals, and has gotten more lethal in mammals over time.
People in many countries have been infected and killed by the virus
It is very unlikely that H5N1 will be eradicated in the foreseeable future
It is likely that H5N1 will continue to spread by migratory birds and other means to nearly every country in the world.
It is likely that hundreds of millions, and possibly billions, of animals will be infected.
Close association of hundreds of millions of people with hundreds of millions of infected animals provides many opportunities for adaptation of the virus to humans
H5N1 has already partially adapted to humans, the precursor to pandemic onset.
Many clusters of human cases indicating human to human spread of H5N1 spread have been observed.
Clusters are becoming more frequent and larger.
Human to Human to Human spread of H5N1 was observed in Karo, Indonesia, earlier this year.
Serial passage of the virus between humans selects for human adaptation
This adaptation has already occurred for the polymerase complex - H5N1 was recently shown to replicate at high levels in humans.
Sustained transmission of H5N1 between humans is the only barrier left to pandemic onset. Given that H5N1 is already partially adapted to humans and the many opportunities it will have to finish it’s adaptation in the coming flu season, the risk that a pandemic will begin within the year is very high.
Although we don’t know what the kill rate of a pandemic strain of H5N1 will be, there is no reason to think that it will be less than the 1918 pandemic strain and many reasons to think that it will be worse, much worse. Historical arguments are non-scientific and ignore basic virology. Risk assessments of the likely severity of an H5N1 pandemic should be based on the very substantial data that has been collected on this virus and not based on what has happened in previous pandemics with different viruses.
Given the available facts, failing to prepare for a severe pandemic is irresponsible and likely to result in the deaths of hundreds of millions of people.

That is his assessment, and not everyone over there agrees with him either. But, it is something to think about.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

http://birdflubreakingnews.com/templ...ory-national.p

Originally Posted by /birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wisconsinagconnect ion.com%2Fstory-national.p

USDA and DOI are transitioning to a new method of notifying the public. In an effort to maintain transparency, USDA and DOI will post all future suspected LPAI H5N1 detections on the Internet. DOI will maintain a list of all such routine detections as part of the National Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Early Detection Data System (HEDDS).

Maybe they figure that no one will look, and if they do, they won't understand what is being said, as well as what is not being said.

http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/LPAITable.pdf

Originally Posted by wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/LPAITable.pdf

This test involves the inoculation of 4- to 8-week old disease-free chickens and observation for signs of AI for 10 days. According to the USDA and World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), highly pathogenic AI is defined as any AI virus that is lethal for 6 or
more of 8 chickens (75% mortality). Pathogenicity is confirmed 10 days from when the chickens are inoculated with the virus grown from the gold standard virus isolation test. Only H5 and H7 subtypes undergo chicken pathogenicity testing because of their potential to become HPAI, all others are considered to be LPAI.

So, if only 5 chicks die or they die on day 11, it's not announced?
Interestingly enough, they have not released any of the genetic sequences. This is transparent?
What they also don't say is that though the confirmatory test detected low path, it does not exclude a co-infection by high path, and that is exactly why they are testing.

There is now a third detection of H5N1 in Michigan.
This time H5N1 was detected in mallard ducks in St. Claire Co, north of Detroit. Of course, now USDA is not issuing News Releases on these findings, so you have to use the link to keep track.
USDA refuses to release test results on H5N1 samples or any genetic sequences.
The way that they are choosing to issue these reports, lowers the profile, obscuring the increased number of sightings in different states.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Just out of curiosity, how long can the flu virus generally survive outside of the body. I know we don't really know that much about the avian flu, but are there any predictions?

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Originally Posted by fusster

Just out of curiosity, how long can the flu virus generally survive outside of the body. I know we don't really know that much about the avian flu, but are there any predictions?

I am not really sure. It's in the water from the ducks, etc. It's in the fecal material like manure from chickens. It is constantly being released into the environment by birds or whatever it infects. Human cases have massive diarrhea. I just don't have an anwer for how long it survives. Handling any waste, dead birds or caring for an infected person puts you at risk without using the right kind of mask, gloves, etc. Is that what you are concerned about?

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Well I'm just worried about if there's an outbreak and it becomes contained, is there still a risk of getting the bird flu days/weeks/months later by touching something the patient may have come into contact with? The fact that it can be in the water is really scary as well.