Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...19&postcount=4

Discussion of the most recent graph of human H5N1 clusters (above link). What this graph shows is that the number of human clusters of individuals infected with H5N1 is growing each year. There are not many data points (i.e. data from many years), but the data show the number of clusters may be starting to grow exponentially. The more cases and the more clusters, the greater the opportunity for the virus to change sufficiently to become easily transmissible.

This graph, however, does NOT show that these clusters are a result of human to human (H2H) transmission. In fact most of the clusters are small, 2-3 individuals, and many could easily be infected from the same common non-human reservoir. Because these clusters have remained small (only few individuals), it is a good indication that H5N1 has not yet evolved into an easily transmissible virus.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Originally Posted by Laidback Al

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...19&postcount=4

Discussion of the most recent graph of human H5N1 clusters (above link). What this graph shows is that the number of human clusters of individuals infected with H5N1 is growing each year. There are not many data points (i.e. data from many years), but the data show the number of clusters may be starting to grow exponentially. The more cases and the more clusters, the greater the opportunity for the virus to change sufficiently to become easily transmissible.

This graph, however, does NOT show that these clusters are a result of human to human (H2H) transmission. In fact most of the clusters are small, 2-3 individuals, and many could easily be infected from the same common non-human reservoir. Because these clusters have remained small (only few individuals), it is a good indication that H5N1 has not yet evolved into an easily transmissible virus.

Thanks for the explanation, Al. The graphs are a great tool.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Research showing flies as vectors in the spread of H5N1. This is
important information.
(hat tip Flutrackers/AlaskaDenise)
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detail...124.G01&irec=0
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Hungary:
(hat tip croftsblogs)
http://english.mti.hu/default.asp?me...&newsid=234018
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...Confirmed.html
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/dj...aebqLqWmdu2nZK
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Senators told US not scared enough about bird flu. Really?

Maybe it's because people will only believe the truth if the government
tells them to get serious about preparing. Telling them to stockpile
food for 3 days or 2 weeks is not serious when the reality for each
wave of infection could be 12 weeks or more.
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/01/us-citizens-not-concerned-enough-over.html
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Mixed messages from the FAO - Commentary - Effect Measure
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...worry.php#more
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H5N1 and Cats
(hat tip flutrackers/niman)
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19325883.800

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

US Citizens Not Concerned Enough:
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...ough-over.html
The Nigerian Paradox:
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...n-paradox.html
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Succinct update on avian influenza from Science linked from Flutrakers
followed by commentary from Dr. Niman:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...71&postcount=1
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...Migration.html
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Pandemic flu video made by a member of curevents.com
- a decent job. This was redone after constructive criticism:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utQExEhel9k

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Another death in Indonesia, this time a six year old:
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2...rold_dies.html
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Suspected case, 14 years old in Azerbaijan:
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2...h5n1_case.html

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

A current but incomplete list of confirmed and suspected H5N1 human cases by country for the past several weeks.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=15591

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Interesting link to an article on NAMRU3. I did not realize that they
had been around so long:
http://pfiforum.
com/viewtopic.php?p=8417#8417

Another link to an article on NAMRU3:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=61359&postcount=
1
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The H5N1 Crystal Ball Is Cloudy - Effect Measure
http://scienceblogs.com/
effectmeasure/2007/01/the_h5n1_crystal_ball_is_cloud.php#more

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Commentary on the release of the viral sequences
of the recent fatalities in Indonesia and what this
portends:
http://www.recombinomics.
com/News/01260701/H5N1_Indonesia_RBD.html

Originally Posted by [URL="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/
01260701/H5N1_Indonesia_RBD.html"

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01260701/H5N1_Indonesia_RBD.html[/url]
...the reports of a jump in suspect cases have been
accompanied by a jump in confirmed cases. Four of the five confirmed H5N1 infections this month have been fatal.

There has been concern about changes in or near the HA
receptor binding domain. Recently a number of 2005
and 2006 H5N1 bird sequences in China were made public.
These sequences had a number of changes in or near the
receptor binding domain.

These changes have recently been appearing in human
cases this season. In Egypt, the three sequences from
patients in Gharbiya had M230I...

Sequences from the four fatal cases in Indonesia...also
have multiple changes near the receptor binding domain
position 190. All four have D187N and A188E. These two
changes have been seen in H5N1 birds in Shangxi and
Hunan. The changes were also in the more recent 2006 sequences in Indonesia, A/Indonesia/CDC887/2006,
A/Indonesia/CDC938/2006. The presence of both changes
in all four isolates in 2007 raises the possibility that these
changes are being fixed in Indonesia.

Moreover, the three most recent 2007 isolates also have
a third change, A189E. The latest acquisitions create a
stretch of three consecutive changes at positions 187-189.

The rapid acquisition of changes in or near the receptor
binding domain in H5N1 isolates from human cases is
cause for concern. All of the above cases have been fatal,
and represents a jump in the number of cases in Egypt and Indonesia.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Originally Posted by Laidback Al

A current but incomplete
list of confirmed and suspected H5N1 human cases by
country for the past several weeks.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...t=<br /> 15591

No let up in Indonesia:
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/01/no-l
etup-in-indonesia.html
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The situation in Indonesia is VERY serious. The US is donating
PPE for the cullers. The Indonesian Army has been called out.
Can you imagine that happening here? http://www.france24.com/france24Public/en/administration/afp-news.html?id=070126143804.l407brs7
http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Indonesia-asks-troops-to-fight-
bird-flu/2007/01/27/1169788724324.html

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

WHO's flu chief leaves for Novartis:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...95&postcount=1
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This does not happen often, an avian flu patient recovers:
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...goes-home.html