Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Recombinomics Commentary - 20 January 2006
Difficult to solve the puzzle when pieces of information are missing:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10..._Sulawesi.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10...Sulawesi.html]
... translation describes a suspect fatal H5N1 bird flu case in South Sulawesi...two family members are hospitalized and several contacts are being tested...Last month a fatal confirmed case from Mekassar was announced. However, the patient had died in June. ... the WHO update failed to mention the deaths of two family members who also had bird flu symptoms. Thus, the failure to report, couple[d] with the misleading characterization by WHO is cause for concern.

... a large number of suspect cases have been hospitalized in South Sulawesi... False negatives are common in H5N1 cases and frequently multiple tests are required to detect H5N1.

... a link to dead or dying poultry is usually required for H5N1 testing,
the level of H5N1 infections in patients with bird flu symptoms, but without a bird link is largely unknown.

If these patients have been infected with H5N1, they will have antibodies that can be detected 3-4 weeks after disease onset.

Similarly, sequence data from H5N1 positive cats has not been released... H5N1 sequences from wild birds in Indonesia are also lacking.

The latest suspect cluster in Indonesia again highlights the need for expanded surveillance and more timely reporting.

Another source for the same story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=insurance
Why the concern? This is the reason:

Originally Posted by /www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601203&sid=arR6u4Gv9tRE&refer=insurance

Clusters of cases may signal the virus is becoming more adept at infecting humans, not just birds.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Conference discussed bird flu risk for healthcare workers:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems...0/s1765033.htm

Indonesia to ban backyard poultry in city areas:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP233876.htm

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Queensland Gov't Warns Public to Prepare:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=65570

Originally Posted by /news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=65570

"The issue that will cripple Queensland in the event of any major infectious disease outbreak is the total lack of capacity of the medical system in this state."
...the 30,000 courses of Tamiflu and Relenza would be used to treat infected patients as well as emergency and hospital workers in the event of an outbreak of influenza pandemic.
Politicians would not receive the treatment, but some members of the media might, he said.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/...51123139.html#

Originally Posted by www.smh.com.au/news/National/Prepare-now-for-bird-flu-warns-Qld-govt/2006/10/20/1160851123139.html#

Those infected would be quarantined in their homes, and those with more severe cases, in hospitals.

At home, people should stockpile non-perishable food, medicines, soap and vitamins in case they have to quarantine themselves or care for children at home.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Dr. Osterholm on Oprah Winfrey, when I read the part about the group that had the highest mortality rate in 1918, I was shocked:

http://www.oprah.com/tows/slide/2006..._284_101.jhtml

Originally Posted by www.oprah.com/tows/slide/200601/20060124/slide_20060124_284_101.jhtml

"In the months of September and October of 1918, 7 percent of the residents of Boston between 20 and 40 years of age died," he says.

How could individuals in the prime of their health be so susceptible to a disease? "It turns out that this virus multiplies very quickly in your body," Dr. Osterholm explains. "The people who have the healthiest immune systems are the ones that succumb to the virus because the immune system goes into overdrive."

The demographic least likely to survive the 1918 pandemic were pregnant women, Dr. Osterholm says. "Fifty-five percent of all pregnant women died from having this flu virus. There is no more precarious time in a healthy person's immune system, than [when they are] pregnant. Part of you says, 'Get rid of that [baby]. It's not all me.' And part of you says, 'This is the most precious cargo I'll ever carry. Protect it.'" This confusion makes bird flu extremely dangerous for pregnant women.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Downplaying Avian Flu in Australia.
It's been pointed out elsewhere that it does not matter if the birds in Australia are negative if the flu becomes more human to human transmissible because it is then a human influenza not an avian flu.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/...851138259.html

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Effect Measure Commentary on the de Jong "hit it hard and early" study,
the site is sluggish today, and it takes awhile for the article to come up:
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur..._and_early.php

Originally Posted by scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2006/09/de_jongs_hit_it_hard_and_early.php

Mutations associated with PB2 (specificaly E627K) did occur... Some other mutations in the polymerase complex associated with mammalian adaption were seen...

We have previously pointed out that there is good evidence that receptors for bird-associated HA (α2,3SA) exist in the upper respiratory tract of humans and perhaps other tissues and the de Jong paper seems to bear this out...

... in the H5N1 cases viral loads in both nose and throat were higher than in non-H5N1 cases and higher in the throat than the nose of H5N1 cases....

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Wild bird samples from Michigan undergo additional testing:
http://birdflubreakingnews.com/templ...F10%2F0422.xml

They always say this in all USDA releases that the H5 and N1 can be from distinct viruses.
What they don't say is that though the confirmatory test detected low path, it does not exclude a co-infection by high path.
Additionally, they do not indicate how many of the 51 samples were positive for H5.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is an article from February 2006 that actually gives a timeframe for pandemic though of course no one can predict anything for sure, and not every authority would agree:
http://www.24dash.com/content/news/v...47&newsID=3243

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Secretive Biodefensive Legislation Moves Forward:

http://www.ombwatch.org/article/arti.../1/1?TopicID=1

All I can say is, good grief!!

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Baltimore, 1918:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/hea...alth-headlines

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Most of us thought that SARS happened elsewhere like China or Canada.
How many of us were aware of the US cases? Scarey stuff...
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol10no2/pdfs/03-0752.pdf

SARS - How a global epidemic was stopped:
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/about/sars.jsp