Pandemic Flu - Thread II - page 27

Frist calls for a Manhatten Project: We are so..., you know. He is telling it like it is. Does anyone really understand this? There is nothing that we can do but prepare, but no one is... Read More

  1. by   indigo girl
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 18, '07
  2. by   indigo girl
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 18, '07
  3. by   indigo girl
    Tamiflu Resistance - Effect Measure
    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...g_und.php#more
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Very cool map:
    (hat tip curevents.com/hawaiinet)
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12375868
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Transmission of NS294S - Recombinomics:
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...nsmission.html
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Good Panflu Video in upper righthand corner
    (hat tip P4P/scottman)
    http://www.monroecounty.gov/health-pandemicflu.php
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Preparing your family for emergency:
    http://wfrv.com/health/local_story_018092946.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 19, '07
  4. by   indigo girl
    CIDRAP on Tamiflu resistance:
    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/
    content/influenza/avianflu/news/jan1807tamiflu.html


    Quote from [URL="http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/
    influenza/avianflu/news/jan1807tamiflu.html"
    http://www.cidrap.
    umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/jan1807tamiflu.
    html[/URL]
    Fred Hayden, a WHO avian flu and antiviral expert, told the
    Associated Press (AP) today the drug-resistant strains in the
    Egyptian patients likely developed after they were treated
    with oseltamivir. He said a more worrying scenario would be if
    oseltamivir-resistant strains were circulating in birds.
    I would suggest that the more worrying scenario has occurred.
    If the WHO and its associated labs had not been witholding viral
    sequences, this would have been obvious before now.

    Let's look at this again:
    http://www.recombinomics.
    com/News/01190701/H5N1_Egypt_N294S_Transmission.html


    The WHO says that the significant change, N274S was in a
    patient in Vietnam in 2005, but these sequences have never
    been publicly available thru Genbank or Los Alamos. So right
    now, we have to take their word for it because the sequences
    must be in their private database yet again. You can however,
    see that oseltamivir-resistant strains were circulating in birds
    prior to the illness of the cases in Egypt because those
    sequences are available in a public data base. The
    polymorphism of concern here is presently in circulation
    and was in circulation prior to the Egyptian cases.


    The WHO would like us to believe that Tamiflu resistance
    developed with 48 hours of treatment. I guess it could happen
    but it seems unlikely given the prior existence of this change
    in wild birds.

    The information about these changes in H5N1 would not be
    available to us if not for the transparency of the US Naval Lab,
    NAMRU-3. The WHO was forced to make a statement because of this.
    This is what it takes to make them tell us the truth or at least part
    of the truth.

    I know that it is not politically correct for me to have this opinion.
    But, there it is. The WHO statement is more spin.

    Here are the wild duck sequences with this change:
    DQ997411 A/duck/Zhejiang/bj/2002 NA (6) 1458 2002 H5N1
    AY075034 A/Duck/Hong Kong/380.5/2001 NA (6) 1427 2001 H5N1

    No doubt there are more available in those private databases.

    Please be aware that the US has recently begun the purchase and stockpiling of Relenza.
    Unfortunately, Relenza may be less effective than Tamiflu in
    slowing down H5N1 replication in a wide range of patients.
    It is also worth noting that Relenza is inhaled, but H5N1 can spread
    and infect multiple organs outside of the respiratory tract.

    Also, Relenza is contraindicated in those with asthma,
    it induces bronchospasms. Amantadine has the potential
    to be potentially fatal for those with cardiac or renal problems.

    Another point to make as per Dr. Niman:
    "... after 2 days there was no hint of wild type H5N1, and no
    hint of the common Tamiflu resistance marker, H274Y. There
    also was no clinical response.

    If N294S was from Tamiflu treatment, then by day 2 all of the
    wild type H5N1 would have to have been killed off and replaced
    by the "mutant" with N294S. However, this switch was without
    any benefit to the patient, because there was no temporary clinical improvement, and this VERY unlikely set of dramatic changes
    had to happen independently in BOTH patients.

    Didn't happen."


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Newest Egyptian Case, already dead. No doubt there will
    be much speculation about the viral sequences. She was only
    27 years old, and
    mother to a newborn.
    http://www.news.com.au/
    couriermail/story/0,23739,21089391-5003402,00.html


    Commentary - Recombinomics:
    http://www.recombinomics.com/
    News/01190702/H5N1_Egypt_Fatal_5.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 29, '07
  5. by   indigo girl
    Egypt:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...-in-egypt.html

    South Korea:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...-new-cull.html
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...C_S_Korea.html

    Thailand:
    (hat tip P4P/sand)
    http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/21Jan2007_news06.php

    Indonesia:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...-bird-flu.html
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Japan:
    Debating Flu Survival Strategy:
    http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=6&art_id=36451&sid=11810688 &con_type=1&d_str=20070120

    (snip)
    Japanese are being told they must debate whether children
    should be vaccinated before the elderly to protect the country's
    future in the event of an influenza pandemic.
    Bleak guidelines drawn up by the Health Ministry also call for a
    study of the country's crematoriums to determine whether they
    are prepared for the many deaths expected in a serious human flu
    outbreak.
    (snip)

    Who are the most likely victims if we are talking about avian flu?
    Hint -
    it's not the elderly.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 29, '07
  6. by   indigo girl
    Thailand:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...d-of-bird.html

    Japan:
    just try substituting USA, because we may face the same issues some day
    (hat tip flutrackers/hawkeye)
    http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/nation...na017000c.html
    (hat tip flutrackers/alaska denise)
    http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/editoria...22TDY04010.htm

    Korea:
    (hat tip flutrackers/niman)
    http://english.donga.com/srv/service...=2007012256078
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 21, '07
  7. by   indigo girl
    Some further discussion on Tamiflu resistance in the recent Egyptian mortalities from Dr. Niman on a thread at curevents.com. I won't post the whole thread as some of the posters are boardering on rude, but this information really is important:
    http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost...&postcount=104
    http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost...&postcount=107
    http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost...&postcount=112
    http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost...&postcount=126


    Quote from [URL="http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=659260&postcount=126"
    http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=659260&postcount=126[/URL]
    No one is going to try treating N294S with Tamiflu. Remember the decimal point. 10X Tamiflu is not realistic or safe.
    "Moderate resistance" eliminates Tamiflu as a viable treatment for N294S H5N1.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Interesting commentary from Dr. Julian Tang, Dept of Microbiology, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong, writing at ProMed on the asymptomatic cases in South Korea. I am posting this thru P4P because it is easier to link to this:
    http://planforpandemic.com/viewtopic.php?p=42886#42886
    http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2...tion_from.html

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    More on the Tamiflu resistance story which also seems to indicate human to human transmission has occurred again:
    http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost...&postcount=151
    http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost...&postcount=153
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...ptibility.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 22, '07
  8. by   indigo girl
    The role of companion animals as reservoirs or vectors - Effect Measure
    http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasur...of_th.php#more
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    China again, what are they hiding now?
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...e-mystery.html
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    South Korea
    Do you get the feeling that they are losing this battle?
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...ling-zone.html
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Clinical trials for Sambucol, a proprietary form of elderberry extract, as tx
    for influenza:
    http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/gui/sho...DB6C8?order=42
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Nigeria:
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070122...u_070122155118
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    India:
    (hat tip P4P/Rick)
    http://cities.expressindia.com/fulls...?newsid=218926
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Hungary:
    (hat tip Flutrackers/yielddude)
    http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L22916517.htm
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Even more on South Korea, extending the culling zone and killing pigs as well as poultry (and probably any other animal found in the zone)
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...ling-zone.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 22, '07
  9. by   indigo girl
    Japan:
    (hat tip curevents.com/Dutchie)
    http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-...701230314.html
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Indonesia:
    http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2...sia_three.html
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Egypt:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...igh-alert.html
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN) reports:
    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2007/0...-reported.html
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 23, '07
  10. by   CrunchRN
    Hello IG,

    Well I talked with our safety office and they are actually putting on a presentation for the Health Department. They are activiely drawing up a plan.

    The reality though is basically that we will not have the medications needed, the hospitals plan to deny admissions for this reason as they will not have the staffing or resources or beds needed, and people will go home and die or not.

    Serioulsy. I left out all the official fancy terms and platitudes and that is what the "plan" boils down to.

    I am sorry I asked! :trout:
  11. by   indigo girl
    Quote from CrunchRN
    Hello IG,

    Well I talked with our safety office and they are actually putting on a presentation for the Health Department. They are activiely drawing up a plan.

    The reality though is basically that we will not have the medications needed, the hospitals plan to deny admissions for this reason as they will not have the staffing or resources or beds needed, and people will go home and die or not.

    Serioulsy. I left out all the official fancy terms and platitudes and that is what the "plan" boils down to.

    I am sorry I asked! :trout:
    DemFromCT at Fluwiki sent me this link when I told him about my experience in trying to get the state to respond to our safety concerns:
    http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n...ToAdmitThisBut
    http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=...uringAPandemic
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 23, '07
  12. by   indigo girl
    Graph of H5N1 Human Clusters:
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...59&postcount=1

    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...19&postcount=4
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Got C-SPAN? Tomorrow a Univ of Rochester flu expert will address Congress on pandemic flu vaccine development:
    http://www.rbj.net/fullarticle.cfm?sdid=64444
    (hat tip PIF/Illuminatus)
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 29, '07
  13. by   Laidback Al
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...19&postcount=4

    Discussion of the most recent graph of human H5N1 clusters (above link). What this graph shows is that the number of human clusters of individuals infected with H5N1 is growing each year. There are not many data points (i.e. data from many years), but the data show the number of clusters may be starting to grow exponentially. The more cases and the more clusters, the greater the opportunity for the virus to change sufficiently to become easily transmissible.

    This graph, however, does NOT show that these clusters are a result of human to human (H2H) transmission. In fact most of the clusters are small, 2-3 individuals, and many could easily be infected from the same common non-human reservoir. Because these clusters have remained small (only few individuals), it is a good indication that H5N1 has not yet evolved into an easily transmissible virus.

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