Pandemic Flu - Thread II - page 24

Frist calls for a Manhatten Project: We are so..., you know. He is telling it like it is. Does anyone really understand this? There is nothing that we can do but prepare, but no one is... Read More

  1. by   indigo girl
    Japan makes plans to purchase a prototype avian flu vaccine, and more Tamiflu: (hat tip Flutrackers/AlaskaDenise)
    Of course, there are a lot more than 10 million people in Japan, and the Tamiflu, which they do not have yet, is not going to be adequate either, but it's a start.
    Report: Japan to stockpile prototype bird flu vaccines for 10 million people - Asia - Pacific - International Herald Tribune

    More on the same topic from Avian Flu Diary, and I see that we have come to the same conclusion:
    Avian Flu Diary: Add Japan To The List
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The cold and flu forecast for your area:
    (hat tip Pandemic Flu Information Forum)
    Clorox : Healthy Home Care - Zip results - Sick
    Today, 1/03/07, the top five sick cities are:

    TAMPA
    CHARLOTTE
    ORLANDO
    PHILADELPHIA
    BIRMINGHAM

    What a surprise, Birmingham is one of them...
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 3, '07
  2. by   indigo girl
    More on H1 and H3 influenza - Effect Measure:
    Effect Measure
    ---------------------------------
    Why the world is so poorly prepared for an pandemic of hypervirulent influenza:
    (hat tip Curevents.com/Solitaire)
    Why is the world so poorly prepared for a pandemic of hypervirulent avian influenza? - Microbial Ecology in Health and Disease
    If you purchase the article you will find that Christophersen and Haug's worst case scenario is a 4% survival rate for humanity.

    I quote: "there is a real possibility that only 4% may now survive", interesting article. Does this wake anyone up?
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 5, '07
  3. by   indigo girl
    Effect Measure
    Bird flu in water, how big a problem?
    Effect Measure

    More on the same study from Avian Flu Diary:
    Avian Flu Diary: Wastewater Treatment Revisited
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    The current situation in Vietnam is not good:
    Vietnam on alert as bird flu spreads - Yahoo! News

    Illegal trade with China is a big part of the problem:
    Vietnam latest news - Thanh Nien Daily
    -----------------------------------------------------------
    Good sense reporting on emergency preparedness:
    H5N1: Branswell: Plan for emergency in 2007

    I read on another blog that you are either physically wired to survive or not. I have to say, that I have to agree that most are not. I really think that most people are not going to prepare their families in the most basic way, by putting away extra food and water. There have been few public service announcements, and they have been ignored. People expect that government is going to handle all emergencies despite recent evidence to the contrary that they will not, and they can not. Folks, the safety of your family starts with you. You are responsible for you and your family. That is the bottom line. You have to do the best that you can, but do something.

    There are many types of emergencies that the people of this country have endured. There will always be emergencies. It's a fact of life. This thread has always been about pandemic influenza, and it still is. There is not much that we can do to prevent such an event from occurring if indeed it does happen, but we can feed our families and limit their exposure, by keeping them safe at home with adequate supplies. I have a hard time understanding why people will not do this. I guess that blogger is right. You are either wired to survive or you are not. Unfortunately, most are not.
    If lucky enough to avoid infection, they might starve unless the government manages to feed them. Remember, it is very possible that there will be waves of infection lasting up to 12 weeks, and two to three waves in a year are possible also. Who will stock the shelves in your local store, and what truckers will be well enough to stock your stores.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 5, '07
  4. by   indigo girl
    Human cases create challenges and puzzles:
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...71&postcount=1
  5. by   indigo girl
    H3 and H1 evolution - Essay from Effect Measure on Flu Strains
    Make sure that you read the excellent comments following the essay:
    Effect Measure

    Unintended Consequences, the effect of Tamiflu on the environment, an essay from Avian Flu Diary and FLA_MEDIC:
    Is this already happening in Indonesia where so many groups of people have been covered with the "Tamiflu Blanket"?
    Avian Flu Diary: The Law of Unintended Consequences
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 5, '07
  6. by   indigo girl
    From the Minnesota Pandemic Flu Plan:
    http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/i...an/d-legal.pdf
    Some interesting points from the legal section of this document:
    Quote from http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/idepc/diseases/flu/pandemic/plan/d-legal.pdf
    Governor’s authorities during declared emergencies. These include
    power of the Governor or the Governor’s designees, during a declared
    national security or peacetime emergency, to direct and control the
    occupancy of facilities; exit from or entry to stricken or threatened public
    places, movement of persons on foot or by private and public
    transportation; public meetings or gatherings; and the evacuation,
    reception, and sheltering of persons.
    DOES THIS MEAN, THAT IF YOU ARE AT WORK, YOU WON'T BE ABLE TO LEAVE?
    JUST A THOUGHT...
    Quote from http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/idepc/diseases/flu/pandemic/plan/d-legal.pdf
    Minn. Stat. 12.35,
    subds. 2-3 If emergency response personnel are activated by the state director of HSEM, they are considered state employees and have the same
    powers, duties, rights, privileges, and immunities provided by law for
    the employees of this state.
    DOES THIS REFER TO ALL HCW?
    Quote from http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/idepc/diseases/flu/pandemic/plan/d-legal.pdf
    Minn. Stat. 12.42 The Governor may request out of state license, certificate, or permit holders to perform work within Minnesota during an emergency. Out of state includes all states of the United States, the District of Columbia
    and Canada.
    -------------------------------------------
    More interesting thoughts from the same plan include this:
    Quote from http://156.98.150.11/divs/idepc/diseases/flu/pandemic/plan/attachments.pdf
    Minnesota Department of Health Pandemic Influenza Plan (Supplement) Attachment E: MDH Ethical Considerations Summary

    Health care worker duty to provide care
    The skills of healthcare workers make them most qualified to take care of persons with influenza. Does that mean they should be mandated to work during a pandemic or other communicable disease outbreak. If so, can they be mandated to be vaccinated or prophylaxed in order to work with at-risk populations?
    Develop ethical framework utilizing above stakeholder groups with focus on healthcare community.
    NICE TO KNOW THAT TPTB ARE THINKING OF US.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 5, '07
  7. by   indigo girl
    WHO Worries About Vietnam:
    H5N1: WHO worries about Vietnam

    About those dead birds in Hong Kong, I have actually seen these finches for sale in my local pet store. Not wild caught, the sign says, but raised in captivity, poor critters, so pretty:
    FluTrackers - View Single Post - Wild bird found dead with H5 in HK shopping district

    Commentary from Recombinomics:
    H5N1 in Wild Bird in Hong Kong
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    HHS Pursues Advanced Development of Antiviral Drug for Influenza:
    (hat tip Fluwiki)
    2007.01.04: HHS Pursues Advance Development of New Influenza Antiviral Drug

    Guess where this new drug is being produced? This is a surprise because it is Birmingham, Alabama, a city that has been getting some attention due to the unusual pediatric cases of seasonal flu that put at least six kids in ICU:
    Birmingham firm gets $102 million contract for bird flu treatment - Tuscaloosa
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 5, '07
  8. by   indigo girl
    Sri Lanka:
    || Daily News Online Edition - Sri lanka :: Print Page
    --------------------------------------------------
    CDC Weekly Flu Report:
    CDC - Influenza (Flu) | Weekly Report: Influenza Summary Update Week 52 , 2006-2007 Season
    ---------------------------------------------------
    RX for Pandemic - Avian Flu Diary
    This is so spot on!
    Avian Flu Diary: RX for a Pandemic
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 6, '07
  9. by   indigo girl
    From the CDC
    Interim Recommendations for Infection Control in Healthcare Facilities Caring for Known or Suspected Avian Flu Victims:
    CDC - Influenza (Flu) | Interim Recommendations for Infection Control in Healthcare Facilities Caring for Patients with Known or Suspected Avian Influenza


    The rationale for the use of additional precautions for avian influenza as compared with human influenza include the following:

    The risk of serious disease and increased mortality from highly pathogenic avian influenza may be significantly higher than from infection by human influenza viruses.
    Each human infection represents an important opportunity for avian influenza to further adapt to humans and gain the ability to transmit more easily among people.
    Although rare, human-to-human transmission of avian influenza may be associated with the possible emergence of a pandemic strain.



    Patients with a history of travel within 10 days to a country with avian influenza activity and are hospitalized with a severe febrile respiratory illness, or are otherwise under evaluation for avian influenza, should be managed using isolation precautions identical to those recommended for patients with known Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). These include:

    Standard Precautions
    Pay careful attention to hand hygiene before and after all patient contact or contact with items potentially contaminated with respiratory secretions.
    Contact Precautions
    Use gloves and gown for all patient contact.
    Use dedicated equipment such as stethoscopes, disposable blood pressure cuffs, disposable thermometers, etc.
    Eye protection (i.e., goggles or face shields)
    Wear when within 3 feet of the patient.
    Airborne Precautions
    Place the patient in an airborne isolation room (AIR). Such rooms should have monitored negative air pressure in relation to corridor, with 6 to 12 air changes per hour (ACH), and exhaust air directly outside or have recirculated air filtered by a high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter. If an AIR is unavailable, contact the health-care facility engineer to assist or use portable HEPA filters (see Environmental Infection Control Guidelines) to augment the number of ACH.
    Use a fit-tested respirator, at least as protective as a National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)-approved N-95 filtering facepiece (i.e., disposable) respirator, when entering the room.


    Health-care workers involved in the care of patients with documented or suspected avian influenza should be vaccinated with the most recent seasonal human influenza vaccine. In addition to providing protection against the predominant circulating influenza strain, this measure is intended to reduce the likelihood of a health-care worker’s being co-infected with human and avian strains, where genetic rearrangement could take place, leading to the emergence of potential pandemic strain.
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 6, '07
  10. by   indigo girl
    Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza: Recommendations for Preparedness in the
    United States
    (hat tip Fluwiki/DemfromCT)
    Login

    <snip>
    Although funding for pandemic preparedness has been provided by Congress, it is far less than the amount spent each year for seasonal influenza. The need is substantial if this is to be a serious effort. Key areas are not funded or are seriously underfunded. In particular, additional funding is required for state, local, and hospital preparedness; communications; and essential medical supplies, including antiviral medications, antibiotics, and respirators. To fully address all of the steps identified for pandemic influenza preparedness, the authors propose that a minimum of $30 billion in additional funding be provided. Specifically, funds are required for additional studies to identify methods to expedite vaccine development, for additional studies of novel and current antiviral medications, for stockpiling of antiviral medication(s) sufficient to treat 35% of the US population, for stockpiling of protective equipment (masks, gowns, respirators, gloves), to expand domestic vaccine production sources and increase seasonal use, to fund state and local health department preparedness, to provide resources for hospital/health care system planning, and to enable plans for surge capacity.
    <snip>
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 6, '07
  11. by   indigo girl
    China and the CDC have developed a vaccine for H5N1. It sounds like good news, of course there is the worry that it may not be for all strains of H5N1, but something is better than nothing:
    China developes new flu vaccine virus
    ---------------------------------------------------
    Federal Guidelines for Overseas Business -

    Avian Flu Diary discusses this. Please notice the guidelines refer to a 12 week period in which employees should be prepared with stockpiled food and supplies. Make no mistake, the needs will be no different here than overseas. It is foolish to think otherwise.
    Twelve weeks is an estimate of the FIRST wave of infection with perhaps one or two to follow in one year:
    Avian Flu Diary: Federal Guidelines For Overseas Businesses

    -------------------------
    Here is a virus, (H3N8) to be concerned about, this one jumped species from horses to dogs and causes hemorraghic pneumonia. You can guess what the implications are here, that H5N1 is not the only contender for pandemic influenza. Some are concerned with the close companionship of kids and dogs for this reason:
    Influenza Virus Infection in Racing Greyhounds | CDC EID
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 7, '07
  12. by   indigo girl
    Well you knew that it was coming, Indonesia's first avian flu case for 2007 is a 14 year old boy, and he is already on a vent:
    H5N1: More on the Indonesian boy

    -----------------------
    Follow this thread for beautiful maps, photos, and explanations about the Asian - Australasian Bird Flyways. There is a bird that flys from New Zealand to Alaska and back, amazing!

    East Asian-Australasian Flyways - FluTrackers
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 7, '07
  13. by   indigo girl
    Several thousand ducks have died in Vietnam in the past few days:
    (hat tip Flutrackers/yieldude)
    People's Daily Online -- Ducks die en mass in Vietnam's southern province

    Here is a summary of recent OIE reports documenting the various outbreaks of avian flu in Vietnam:
    FluTrackers - View Single Post - Vietnam reports new bird flu outbreaks in poultry

    The OIE:
    The OIE is an intergovernmental organisation created by the International Agreement of 25 January 1924, signed by 28 countries. In May 2006, the OIE totalled 167 Member Countries. Their mission is to ensure transparency in the global animal disease situation.

    Each Member Country undertakes to report the animal diseases that it detects on its territory. The OIE then disseminates the information to other countries, which can take the necessary preventive action. This information also includes diseases transmissible to humans and intentional introduction of pathogens. Information is sent out immediately or periodically depending on the seriousness of the disease. This objective applies to disease occurences both naturally occuring and deliberately caused. Dissemination is via the OIE Web site, e-mail and the following periodicals: Disease Information, published weekly and the annual compilation World Animal Health.
    --------------------------------------------------------
    The second Indonesian case for 2007 is a 37 year old woman. Notice most of the victims are under age 40:
    (hat tip PFI Forum/Niman)
    Indonesian woman with bird flu in critical condition, health official says - International Herald Tribune

    Commentary from Recombinomics on a suspected cluster of cases in Indonesia:
    Suspect H5N1 Cluster in Jakarta
    Last edit by indigo girl on Jan 8, '07

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