Pandemic Flu - Thread II - page 18
Frist calls for a Manhatten Project: We are so..., you know. He is telling it like it is. Does anyone really understand this? There is nothing that we can do but prepare, but no one is... Read More
Dec 11, '06With what is going on in South Korea, it is appropriate to read this other link that is similarly concerning from Zoe's Blog regarding H5N1 increasing in virulence thru a single passage in mice. You have to scroll down two commentaries to get to this article or read them all:
A Journey Through The World of Pandemic Influenza
Quote from birdflujourney.typepad.com/That reminds me of what they found out about the 1918 avian flu, H1N1, and how virulent it was for mice:A Journey Through The World of Pandemic Influenza[/url]
... a strain of H5N1 with no known mammalian adaptations acquired the amino acid substitution from glutamic acid (Glu) to lysine (Lys) at position 627 of the PB2 gene when it reproduced in the original mouse. This substitution made the virus 50,000 times more lethal, which is what 5x10 raised to the fourth power is (unless my math has failed me.) on the FIRST PASSAGE.
Quote from [urlwww.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/05-0979.][/url]
... expression microarray analysis performed on whole lung tissue of mice infected with the 1918 HA/NA recombinant showed increased upregulation of genes involved in apoptosis, tissue injury, and oxidative damage (32). These findings are unexpected because the viruses with the 1918 genes had not been adapted to mice; control experiments in which mice were infected with modern human viruses showed little disease and limited viral replication. The lungs of animals infected with the 1918 HA/NA construct showed bronchial and alveolar epithelial necrosis and a marked inflammatory infiltrate, which suggests that the 1918 HA (and possibly the NA) contain virulence factors for mice.Last edit by indigo girl on Dec 11, '06
Dec 11, '06Containment efforts have failed in South Korea (hat tip Flutrackers)
INSIDE JoongAng Daily
FluTrackers - View Single Post - South Korea Discovers Third Bird-Flu Outbreak in Three Weeks
H5N1 On Third South Korean FarmLast edit by indigo girl on Dec 11, '06
Dec 11, '06Saving face in China, commentary from Effect Measure on a controversial
paper. The comments following this are worth a read, although the language in the last comment may offend some so don't say I didn't warn you. I want to include the other comments because they really do contribute to the thinking on viral evolution. Generally, really intelligent thinkers contribute over there:
Dec 11, '06Here is an interesting collection of essays, I guess you could call them, that are thought provoking and cover many of the issues of concern regarding avian flu, from blogger, FLA MEDIC, a very good read. Enjoy:
Avian Flu Diary
This is interesting also, a World Health Map. You can set it just for avian influenza, and might be surprised to see what it shows. I am thinking that it is also showing low path avian flu as well as high path, but I will have to ask someone about this.
HEALTHmap | Global disease alert mapping systemLast edit by indigo girl on Dec 11, '06
Dec 11, '06There is so much information available on this one website, it will take quite a while to read it all from the Royal Society. There are some odd discussions about mortality rates that do not seem to be in alignment with the current case fatality rate and you have to wonder why... (hat tip Flutrackers/JJackson)
Pandemic influenza evidence
One example of what you will find of the many gems of information contained herein, and I really hope that everyone who reads this will understand that this lesson is about to be repeated:
Quote from /www.royalsoc.ac.uk/downloaddoc.asp?id=3550[/urlWhat lessons can be learnt from other disease outbreaks and more general public
emergencies, and the associated emergency planning responses?`
The main lesson to learn from the past is that lessons from the past have not been learned. My recent article in the BMJ touches only a selection of the very many lessons which appear to be being missed... Potentially the most significant omission appears to be that pandemic flu will affect all society, not just the health service. The disruption to general goods and services may dwarf that from the increased demands on the health service. The virologists and epidemiologists say the UK was relatively unaffected by SARS; the economic scientists will tell you how much it cost the UK plc.
The whole system impact matters. Not involving the public in the debate, eg about the inadequacy of the supply chain for antibiotics, food, and lots of other everyday essentials, risks anger later, especially if other nations are urging the public to stockpile.Last edit by indigo girl on Dec 11, '06
Dec 11, '06Want to buy someone a useful xmas gift? Here's something unusual that I would like to own:
(hat tip to curentevents/fredness)
Herbs & Influenza: how herbs used in the 1918 flu pandemic can be effective today by Kathy Abascal
Dec 11, '06To those of you who are raising chickens, take note about those pesky sparrows, starlings, and pidgeons:
Singapore Conference, 11 Dec 2006: (hat tip Flutrackers/4ABBA)
Quote from /www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP3291.htm"Webster said several H5N1 strains had become widespread and different enough to cause unease among experts, and no one would dare assume that any one vaccine would be able to protect against other H5N1 strains.
Several companies around the world are in a race to develop vaccines against the virus, although many experts think they might not confer protection against an eventual pandemic strain, if one should emerge.
Some experts at the conference also urged governments in the developing world to be realistic. In the event of a pandemic, there simply would not be vaccines or drugs for poorer nations.
...it's going to reach only a very small population of the world,Last edit by indigo girl on Dec 11, '06
Dec 12, '06Bird Flu Headline News - Commentary from Effect Measure:
Don't Give Up on Advanced Human Cases of Avian Flu:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP46574.htmLast edit by indigo girl on Dec 12, '06
Dec 13, '06CDC recruits faith based groups to develop disaster preparedness plans and drills.
The CDC??? Why the CDC, you have to wonder...?
(hat tip to Flutrackers/tmf)
Faith-Based News Articles
Dec 13, '06Bird Flu Remains a Grave Threat, a very thoughtful article
(hat tip Curevents/russell family)
Quote from www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssentI would ask the same questions. What about the hospitals? What about individual families? Anyone still expecting FEMA to come to the rescue?"bird flu fatigue" has set in among the media and government health ministries, said Dr. Kasai, a Japanese disease tracker who is an adviser to the World Health Organization's Western Pacific office in the Philippines.
What we need to do is more or less clear. But whether people are preparing is another question," he said.
... The weakness Dr. Kasai sees is the lack of adequate preparation for a mutation of the H5N1 bird flu virus that the WHO says could spread across the world in a matter of weeks, infecting as many as 2 billion people and killing anywhere from a few million to 100 million people.
"If the disease spreads everywhere, governments are more and more limited," he said. "In a pandemic, you will get no help from your neighbors."
Dr. Kasai wonders how many households have stocks of food and water that you would want on hand in the event of a natural disaster or major homeland security threat. And what about the hospitals?
"When SARS broke out, it was the medical facilities that were the venue for infection," he said. "They have to be able to maintain the ability to serve the sick without spreading the disease. But if everyone crowds into the hospitals, it will be very difficult."Last edit by indigo girl on Dec 13, '06
Dec 13, '06Modulation of Cytokine Expression by Traditional Medicines: A review of herbal
(Thanks Curevents.com, and to my friend, Fredness) - this could be very useful if anyone was willing to investigate further. The usual disclaimers apply. This is not medical advice. Discuss this with your medical advisor.
http://www.thorne.com/altmedrev/.fulltext/11/2/128.pdfLast edit by indigo girl on Dec 13, '06
Dec 13, '06Very disturbing commentary today from Effect Measure. The Reveres are not usually given to these types of comments. The Editors of Effect Measure are senior public health scientists and practitioners.
The last section of this commentary:
Quote from ://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2006/12/where_to_sample_birds_and_some.php#moreWhat else are they not telling us? As if witholding viral sequences wasn't enough...Effect Measure]
Oh, and there was also this, in Lauerman's report of the Singapore meeting which will go on until Thursday:
Potentially dangerous new mutations that might give H5N1 the ability to spread among people are cropping up in birds, and perhaps other species including cats and dogs, said Ron Fouchier, also an Erasmus virologist, at the conference.
"We've been hearing about hundreds of reports of dead cats from Indonesia," Fouchier said today in an interview. "We've also had several reports of infected dogs from countries of the former Soviet Republic."
Thanks for telling us. What else do you know? Dangerous new mutations? Excuse, me. Do you mind telling us what that's about? This is the internet age. We are past the point where you can try to make your life easier by keeping it in within a close circle.
I have to ask, does anyone else find this rather alarming?Last edit by indigo girl on Dec 13, '06
Dec 13, '06Protect Poultry, Protect People
(hat tip Flutrackers/Florida1)