Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Update on low path flu in US:
http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/LPAITable.pdf

Recent article on genes that could mutate and effect the ability of H5N1 to become more transmissible:
Scientists find mutations that let bird flu adapt to humans (Nov 15, 2006)
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/Cris...-R5-Alertnet-3

Two Threatening Bird Flu Mutations

US and Mexico pledging cooperation with avian flu:
http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/di...15142558lcnire

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Chinese respiratory expert speaking on the need for Hong Kong and the rest of China to cooperate this winter with co-existence of seasonal and H5N1
infections. Let's all hope so:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG24761.htm

This Commentary from Recombinomics is important so please read it carefully, it's causing quite a stir on all the flu blogging sites. This and the reports of a "fake" media exercise:
H5N1 Acquisition Matches Influenza B Receptor Binding Domain

Originally Posted by www.recombinomics.com/News/11150602/H5N1_RBD_B.html

H5N1 Acquisition Matches Influenza B Receptor Binding Domain]
The acquisition of the mammalian polymorphism, M230I, produced a match with the sequence adjacent to the human receptor binding domain of influenza A (H3N2 and H1N1) and influenza B. The change creates identity between positions 226-230 (QSGRI) in the receptor binding domain of influenza B.

CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Niman Says H5N1 & Influenza B polymorpisms recombined

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/pdf/panflureport3.pdf

Originally Posted by www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/pdf/panflureport3.pdf

Communications
In early 2007, a team of pandemic flu experts and communicators will tell meet-
ings of senior news executives that human-to-human transmission of H5N1
has been identified in a village overseas. Later in the day, they will be told the
disease has spread across a region overseas. And finally, they will be told that
human cases have been reported in the United States.
The announcements will be fake, part of an exercise to test how the media – and
the experts – will respond should the day come when similar announcements
have to be made for real. The two sides will work through the challenges of get-
ting and reporting timely, accurate information.
One challenge is how to keep the public informed, without undue alarm, in
situations where there is high interest and little new information, situations that
could develop, for instance, while waiting for the results of confirmatory testing.
The exercise will be repeated in six other cities, reaching national, regional,
Hispanic and African-American media.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...vQ&refer=japan

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Scientists Find Mutations That Let Bird Flu Adapt to Humans
"We identified two changes that are important," says Yoshihiro Kawaoka, the senior author of the Nature paper and a virologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Veterinary Medicine. "Both changes are needed for the H5N1 virus to recognize human receptors." ...

"There are big differences between the virus first found in 1997 and the virus we see now," Kawaoka explains. "We are watching this virus turn itself into a human pathogen."

The mutations found by Kawaoka's group have not yet conferred a complete ability on avian flu to easily recognize the topography of human cells, but they are key steps on that pathway. More mutations, says Kawaoka, will be required for the virus to fully adapt to humans, but it is not known how many mutations are needed for such a change....

The last two flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were caused by avian viruses that had accumulated enough genetic mutations to be considered hybrids of animal and human viruses, Kawaoka notes.
-----

http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.Checkmate selected quotes ...

Among other things, the modification makes it possible for H5N1 to live higher up in your throat instead of way down in your lungs. It has to “grab a hold” on something (the binding site) for a place to live.

For example, let out all your breath naturally - that is “tidal air”. But if you try hard you can push out a little more. Well before H5N1 was only able to live well way down in that bottom part of your lung where it is warm and there was different binding sites. That means that people could exhale and not spread much of the virus. But if it lives up “top side” then you can easily exhale and spread the virus. ...
From Niman’s view (as I understand it) the virus is not hiding in birds (the sequences don’t match) but something else. And it looks to me that the only “something else” could be a mammal (dog?,human?,.. ) since none of the sequence modifications match birds. Birds are still delivery agents and spreaders. Several mammalian species are likely reservoirs and incubators.

Please prepare.

Deceleration can occur, but these events cross a new high-water mark.

The more similar H5N1 is to seasonal influenza, especially the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD), the more likely recombination events are to happen.

…Both mutations already have popped up in humans infected with the H5N1 bird flu virus…The two human mutations give the bird flu virus the ability to attach to human cells. It’s the kind of mutation seen early in the 1918, 1957, and 1968 flu pandemics, warn Shinya Yamada of the University of Tokyo and colleagues…Previous flu pandemics came from bird flu viruses. Each time, the pandemic took off when the viruses learned to attach to human airway cells…The researchers suggest that health authorities look for these mutations in bird flu viruses isolated from humans. If found, they could be an early warning of a budding pandemic…

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

The issue of how many weeks a community or city is affected should be preparing to be self-sufficient needs to be based on empirical data.

I raise this point becuase the US Dept of Health has not made plans aware to the public which are based on reasonable facts. Recommending a stockpile of two weeks gives people false assurance that that will be sufficient.

Computer simulations are part of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) research network. The MIDAS Global Epidemic Model animation from Los Alamos National Laboratory is available, when you select the option for plots it shows the estimated spread of H5N1. Their model (wihich requires a Java applet to be installed, be patient) predicts the pandemic to affect densly populated cities the most. Every one of the curves (waves of infection) is at least 60 days. Some cities are expected to have less severity but the wave is longer (probably due to prevention measures, Targeted Layered Containment).


US Seasonal Flu Activity is available on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. Looking at the Summaries for the Weekly Surveilance Reports you can see that weeks 1–15 (105 days) are peak activity for the year. My point is not when it occurs but the length of time.


Infections in a single household will certainly be shorter depending on the number of people in the home (1–2 weeks? data anyone?). Should preparations for sheltering in place be based on household infection (2 weeks) or community waves 8–15 weeks)? Leaders would be wise to issue advice based on facts. We live in communities and dependant on many people to get through the needs of life (remember Maslow?). 2 weeks is short sighted. 60 days sounds like a more realistic minimum period of time to recommend stockpiling to minimize liability and community instability. We pay a lot of taxes to collect this data, now would be a good time to use it wisely.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Additional H5N1 acquisitions of human RBD [receptor binding domain - the place where the virus attaches itself in the human body] polymorphisms - Commentary from Recombinomics:
Additional H5N1 Acquisitions of Human RBD Polymorphisms

Definition of polymorphisms:
Naturally occurring variations in DNA sequence. Polymorphisms are useful as genetic markers because they allow researchers to distinguish between DNA of different origins.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Originally Posted by frednessAmong other things, the modification makes it possible for H5N1 to live higher up in your throat instead of way down in your lungs. It has to “grab a hold” on something (the binding site) for a place to live.

For example, let out all your breath naturally - that is “tidal air”. But if you try hard you can push out a little more. Well before H5N1 was only able to live well way down in that bottom part of your lung where it is warm and there was different binding sites. That means that people could exhale and not spread much of the virus. But if it lives up “top side” then you can easily exhale and spread the virus. ...

[B

Please prepare.[/b]

Deceleration can occur, but these events cross a new high-water mark.

The more similar H5N1 is to seasonal influenza, especially the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD), the more likely recombination events are to happen.

…Both mutations already have popped up in humans infected with the H5N1 bird flu virus…The two human mutations give the bird flu virus the ability to attach to human cells. It’s the kind of mutation seen early in the 1918, 1957, and 1968 flu pandemics, warn Shinya Yamada of the University of Tokyo and colleagues…Previous flu pandemics came from bird flu viruses. Each time, the pandemic took off when the viruses learned to attach to human airway cells…The researchers suggest that health authorities look for these mutations in bird flu viruses isolated from humans. If found, they could be an early warning of a budding pandemic…

I think your post was spot on, Fredness.

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Clinicians raise questions about respirator mask use:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/con...spirators.html

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Woman dies from avian flu in Indonesia, if correct this is the woman mentioned earlier in the week on post #114:
C-Health: Your Health and Wellness Source - powered by MediResource

Four new human cases in Egypt suspected:
New Bird Flu Cases Discovered In Egypt - World News - Playfuls.com - Business & World

Commentary on Egyptian cases from Recombinomics:
Four Suspect H5N1 Patients Hospitalized in Suhaj Egypt Watch out for those typos!

More from Niman:
H5N1 Wild Bird Sequences in Egypt

Originally Posted by /www.recombinomics.com/News/11170602/H5N1_Teal_Egypt.html

H5N1 Wild Bird Sequences in Egypt]
The acquisitions of high path polymorphisms by low path isolates are cause for concern. H5N1 sequences can also be found in low path H5 in North America also, in addition to swine and human polymorphisms. These acquisitions continue to offer opportunities for changes in virulence as well as receptor binding specificity, as Qinghai isolates in the Middle East continue to acquire mammalian polymorphisms, of which PB2 E627K has become fixed.

Vietnam reports human case of H5N1:
Vietnam reports first human bird flu case in a month

Re: Pandemic Flu - Thread II

Video - Hospitals "full up" - 1918 flu pandemic:
YouTube - Hospitals "Full-Up": The 1918 Influenza Pandemic

Nigeria:
allAfrica.com: Nigeria: Bird Flu Again?

South Koreans developed antibodies to H5N1:
YONHAP NEWS