Quote from Jules A
"The primary care NP and PA workforces are projected to grow far more rapidly than the physician supply.
The supply of primary care NPs is projected to increase by 30 percent, from 55,400 in 2010 to 72,100 in 2020. The supply of primary care PAs is projected to increase by 58 percent, from 27,700 to 43,900 over the same period.
Assuming that NPs and PAs provide the same proportion of services in 2020 that they did in 2010, the combined demand for NPs and PAs would increase by only 17 percent. If NPs and PAs are used to provide a greater proportion of primary care services, their projected demand will be higher."
Projecting the Supply and Demand for Primary Care Practitioners Through 22 | Bureau of Health Workforce
Thank you for the link. I reviewed the information and still fail to see that there are "17 millions new NPs in the graduation pipe line."
Let's take a look at what this source actually said:
1. "If today's system for delivering primary care remained fundamentally the same in 2020, there will be a projected shortage of 20,400 primary care physicians."
2. "The supply of primary care NPs is projected to increase by 30 percent, from 55,400 in 2010 to 72,100 in 2020. The supply of primary care PAs is projected to increase by 58 percent, from 27,700 to 43,900 over the same period."
3. "Assuming that NPs and PAs provide the same proportion of services in 2020 that they did in 2010, the combined demand for NPs and PAs would increase by only 17 percent."
4. "Under a scenario in which the rapidly growing NP and PA supply can effectively be integrated, the shortage of 20,400 physicians in 2020 could be reduced to 6,400 PCPs."
5. "If fully utilized, the percent of primary care services provided by NPs and PAs will grow from 23 percent in 2010 to 28 percent in 2020. Physicians would remain the dominant providers of primary care, only decreasing from 77 percent of the primary care services in 2010 to 72 percent in 2020."
Basically, the article says that if NPs and PAs were utilized more in primary care, then the PCP MD shortage would be eased. I don't see anything in this article that states there is an oversupply of primary care NPs.
In addition, this article is only talking about primary care. Not all NP students are going into primary care. About half of NP students will go into acute care, psych, management, etc. "As of 2012, there were an estimated 154,000 licensed NPs in the U.S., 127,000 of whom were providing patient care. Slightly under half of those worked in primary care."
Where are the "17 millions of NPs in the pipeline?" I'm scratching my head here.
I am disturbed by what seems to be an almost gleeful expectation of the apocalypse for new grad NPs among some posters on this forum. That is doing a disservice to our profession as it may scare away talented candidates. We will always need excellent new grad NPs and RNs coming into the workforce.
There may be an oversupply of NPs in certain areas. This is a distribution problem, not a supply problem. There are many smaller cities and towns, inner cities, and rural areas that desperately need primary care providers. New grad NPs must be prepared to move in order to get their first job.
Perhaps there are too many NP students and schools, although I have yet to see anyone provide evidence of this, beyond anecdotal accounts. So what? Since we live in a capitalist economic system, the crap students will not get hired, so the crap schools will go out of business. The excellent new grads from good schools will get jobs. Problem solved.
After engaging in this dialogue thread, I would advise undergrad students to take Economics as part of their General Ed electives.
Projecting the Supply and Demand for Primary Care Practitioners Through 2 2 | Bureau of Health Workforce