Originally Posted by Rigby Once more, we don't have a nursing shortage in the US, we have a shortage of WORKING nurses.
You may be right, but it's complicated, especially when you read the U.S. Health Department report on this issue:
As of 2000, there were about 500,000 licensed nurses not working in the field, and that's up by about 50,000 since 1996. However, the average age of nurses has also jumped from 25 to 45 in the last 20 years. Therefore, it's not surprizing that 70 percent or about 340,000 of those licensed non-working nurses are also over age 50.
Here's the rub: During the same time period between 1996-2000, the number of RNs dropping out of the license pool due to death, retirement, etc. increased substantially by 650 percent, from roughly 25,000 to nearly 175,000. This was unusual, since the number of "dropouts," so to speak, in previous surveys was relatively stable at about 25,000.
This indicates that a large portion of the aging RN workforce is approaching retirement age and, in fact, another 500,000 RNs are expected to retire in the next 20 years.
So ... what you may have here, is a substantial portion of those 500,000 non-working RNs approaching retirement, since a lot of them are older. However, I agree that it still leaves a lot of room for potentially large numbers of nurses who may have quit their jobs due to poor working conditions, etc.
But here's some other factors to consider:
If the pool of licensed RNs choosing NOT to work in the profession increases to 650,000 in the next 20 years (assuming that the number of licensed non-working RNs continues to increase at a rate of 7,500 per year) ...
And, even if working conditions improved everywhere and all of those nurses won't be on the verge of retiring and are able to return to work ...
You'd still have a shortage of 150,000 RNs ... since there are 800,000 projected vacancies in the next 20 years. That could leave plenty of room for foreign nurses ...
Of course, if nursing school enrollments dramatically increase, this could change all of these projections (among other things) but, this is where things stand now with current nursing school enrollment figures and trends, at least according to the health department.
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