Huge over supply of nurses

[CrunchRN, ADN, RN]

I have been beating this drum for years about way too many nursing schools. Here is the proof:

http://bhw.hrsa.gov/healthworkforce/supplydemand/nursing/workforceprojections/nursingprojections.pdf

Look at the size of those numbers!

[emtb2rn, BSN, RN, EMT-B]

About time reality intruded into the nursing shortage myth.

[HouTx, BSN, MSN, EdD]

Thanks for posting this. I saw it - & shared with our nurse leaders - when it appeared, but didn't think to post here on AN.

[BrandonLPN, LPN]

Disquieting.

[Farawyn]

I have bright motivated students at my high school who want to be nurses, and who would be amazing nurses. I just printed this out for them. I have been preaching the nursing shortage "myth" for a long time.

Reality is a *****.

[nurseprnRN, BSN, RN]

Did somebody note this part? I've been beating THAT drum for years.

While not considered in this study, emerging care delivery models, with a focus onmanaging health status and preventing acute health issues, will likely contribute to newgrowth in demand for nurses, e.g., nurses taking on new and/or expanded roles inpreventive care and care coordination.

And there was this small ray of sunshine:

• Projections at the national level mask a distributional imbalance of RNs at the state level.

• Sixteen states are projected to experience a smaller growth in RN supply relative to theirstate-specific demand, resulting in a shortage of RNs by 2025; ten of these states are inthe West, four are in the South, and two are in the Northeast region.

• States projected to experience the greatest shortfalls in the number of RNs by 2025 areArizona (with 28,100 fewer RNs than needed) followed by Colorado and North Carolina(each with 12,900 fewer RNs than needed).

..... Advance practice nurses are not addressed in this nursing-focused report.

Nor do I see any mention of the bazillions of non-bedside/clinical positions held by RNs now, many of which are increasing in demand.

And these are important points:

Therefore, while the evidence in this report points towards the U.S. currently educating slightlymore nurses than required to meet future demand, a reduction in people choosing nursing as acareer or a combination of factors such as early retirement or increased demand, could besufficient to erase projected surpluses for RNs and LPNs.

and

...... This brief's projections do account for increased utilization of health care services due toexpanded insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act. However, because of theuncertainties in its effects on staffing patterns and the evolving roles of different healthprofessionals on care teams, changes in health care service delivery are not incorporated into themodel. If the growing emphasis on care coordination, preventive services, and chronic diseasemanagement in care delivery models leads to a greater need for nurses, this brief mayunderestimate the projected nurse demand.

and

While these projections are consistent with findings in recent studies on RN supply,6, 7 historicalexperience demonstrates how sensitive enrollment in training programs and the resulting laborsupply of nurses are to the job market and economic conditions.8, 9 For example, the growth ofnew entrants into the RN workforce is susceptible to the fragile supply of nurse educators.10

[Farawyn]

Um, no, I skimmed it. *blushing*

Thanks, GrnTea

[calivianya, BSN, RN]

I am having trouble believing that NC is going to be short. There are so many nursing schools here, graduating SO MANY new people every year... I could not land my specialty of choice in NC after graduating because competition was fierce for new grads in ICU and I had to move to GA to get it right out of school. Just within 30 miles or so of where I live there are 2 BSN and at least 3 ADN schools, graduating at least 400 RNs per year, and I don't even live in one of the top two largest areas.

[nurseprnRN, BSN, RN]

The other thing is they assume people will stay in their state of education. This may account for the "shortage" in Hawai'i, but a lot of folks go there from other places to work. Also, it's very, very hard to get work in CA for the same reason, but the stats presented there only look at CA supply being r/t CA grads. A lot of people come to MA to go to nursing school, but many of them go home or elsewhere when they graduate. And those are just the states li'l ol' me knows something about.

Skimming isn't helpful sometimes :)

[TheCommuter, BSN, RN]

The other thing is they assume people will stay in their state of education.

Based anecdotally on the states where many new grads commonly plan to relocate (California, NY, Florida, Colorado, etc), I can easily envision a more profound glut than predicted in the aforementioned states and a minimal surplus or breakeven point in states where few people are flocking (read: Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, Oklahoma, and so on).

[guest769224]

With many hospital's mindsets on the money, and not the employee, I think jobs will be abundant in the future. Considering how burned out staff nurses are becoming with upper management- the continuous and impossible satisfaction scores, short staffing. New grads will easily suck it up and settle for these work conditions.

Even with all these extra nurses, I think resourceful applicants will still be able to land the dream acute care job.

[windsurfer8, BSN, RN]

I graduated with my BSN in 2006. I stay in touch with 5 of my fellow students. All but one have quit nursing. The four that quit are now married and doing other things (kids, other jobs etc).

Just because you make X amount of nurses does not mean they are all permanent nurses. I would focus less on these numbers and on being an effective and professional nurse. Do that and the rest will more than likely fall into place. That is what the individual can control. How hard they work, being reliable, etc. Numbers and jobs...it is what it is. I don't care if there are a million to many or a million short. I know I am a good nurse and I work my rear off. I have not missed a day of work in 8 years. If suddenly the world no longer needs nurses then I will figure it out. I can't worry about this stuff.