Originally Posted by totallytheresa
I just think the whole thing is confusing. Can the scientists be pretty sure that they know the flu strain for this year? Because that's what's confusing to me... do we get it, then have it turn out that strain isn't so prevalent? Or not get it and just hope for the best? Because I have 3 kids, and we have never gotten it- the waiting list was so long last year, that out ped's office said to not bother, to just reenforce with the kids hand washing, etc....
You can never be 100%, but the system in place is pretty effective (annual effectiveness range from 70% up to 95%)
Flu season differs in different parts of the world. The World Health Organization have stations (112 national influenza centres in 83 countries) which collects samples of the flu from their region and send them to labs for study. Usually a new strain will emerge in the far east and slowly spread its way westward.
In February, WHO experts gather to decide which strains to include in the upcoming North American influenza season. This is based on many factors, including which strains are predominate in Asia, Europe, etc. Travel patterns are also taken into account.
For this year, the 2004/2005 North Hemisphere strains are
an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus
an A/Fujian/411/2002(H3N2)-like virus
a B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus
The 2005 Southern Hemisphere strains are
an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus;
an A/Wellington/1/2004(H3N2)-like virus;
a B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus
The reason why you need to take the flu shot annually is due to antigenic drift/shift. The influenza virus is highly mutable, so there are slight changes that occur yearly. This is the reason why last year's flu season was worse than normal. There was a significant antigenic drift from what has been predominate in previous years.
A more major concern is antigenic shift. Epidemiologists believe that influenza antigenic shift coincide with influenza pandemics. The 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic is believed to have killed 20 to 40 million people (more people died from the spanish flu than World War 1 or the bubonic plague of of 1347-1351). The death rate for 15 to 34-year-olds of influenza and pneumonia were 20 times higher in 1918 than in previous years. That's why this current bird flu outbreaks in SE Asia is of concern to WHO and CDC - if under the right condition and circumstances, we might have a new influenza strain that can be transmitted and infective towards humans.
Sorry for this "virology/public health" lecture. Think of it as free education (no tuition)

I hoped I answered your question/curiosity.
P.S. Handwashing (esp w/ kids) is always a good idea - don't want to get any virus (flu/cold), bacteria, or parasites like the lovely Enterobius vermicularis (pinworm).