I wouldn't go so far as to use a percentage of time that it's accurate.
Ultrasounds are only as good as the person performing them, the person interpreting, and the little rascal inside cooperating to get all the measurements. The further along in the pregnancy the u/s is performed, the less accurate it is at determining gestational age.
LMP estimation is alright IF mom is a good historian and has had fairly regular periods.
But nothing is foolproof. Lots of times we get a baby that was born after a 'post-dates' induction that looks MAYBE 38 weeks. Or a mom who comes in thinking she 'might be' about 36-37 weeks that has peeling skin, pendulous scrotum, GREAT tone, and big breast buds. Yeah, maybe 36 weeks and then some.....
It's not an exact science.
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