the h1n1 vaccine will arrive too late to help most americans who will be infected during this flu season, according to a study conducted by scholars at purdue university.
the study also estimates that the virus - commonly referred to as the swine flu bug - will infect about 60 percent of the u.s. population, although only about 25 percent of americans will fall ill.
published oct. 15 in eurosurveillance, a scientific journal devoted to epidemiology and the surveillance and control of communicable diseases, the study was conducted by professors sherry towers and zhilan feng of, respectively, purdue's statistics and mathematics departments.
"the model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned [u.s. centers for disease control and prevention] vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic h1n1 influenza virus," the authors wrote in their study.
the authors said that this is the week, through oct. 24, during which the greatest number of people would be infected. the vaccination program has barely started in the u.s.
our hospital system just got the h1n1 vaccination in today-ordered 7,000 and received 200! so, only those in the high risk patient care areas are getting them till we see if more are coming in. that means that l&d, maternal/newborn, nicu, peds and then the er on the breakdown list for whoever wants them in each department. i don't know how there will be any left for the er staff with only 200 vaccinations. we are already seeing a huge wave here in our area. our ers have been hit hard. they are not culturing everyone because they would be overwhelmed but everyone they are culturing is coming back positive. i am convinced that my daughter had it last week as it is running through the schools here. our pediatrician's office was inundated with phone calls and visits over the last 2wks.
i'm no expert but it seems to me like most of us will end up building up an immunity the old fashioned way either through repeated exposure at work or by getting the virus long before we have access to the vaccine.....almost seems silly all the heated debates about whether or not the vaccine should be mandated. at least in my area with the flu starting to peak and no vaccine in sight, the debate will almost be a moot point. i'd like to hear what any of you guys are seeing/hearing in your areas.
